“It's no mystery what Iran intends to achieve by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. It seeks to pressure President Trump to end the war prematurely, establishing an Iranian veto on energy flows and winning impunity in the future. But what if Mr. Trump won't play along? The result is the emerging Battle of Hormuz.
An Iranian tanker blockade has always been the main contingency anticipated by war planners, and the U.S. has followed a phased plan of degrading air defenses, missiles and navy. These are prerequisites to reopening Hormuz to commercial traffic.
Asked Sunday about the political cost of rising oil and gas prices -- Iran's remaining means of coercion -- Mr. Trump replied, "I have to do what's right. I can't say that, 'You know, gee, I don't want to have any impact on oil prices for three or four weeks, or two months, and we're going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon.'"
On Friday the U.S. bombed military targets on Kharg Island and threatened to hit or seize the oil-export terminal there. The deployment of a Marine rapid-response force to the region adds teeth to the threat. Given a choice between defeat and escalation, Mr. Trump is signaling he may prefer the latter.
A Pakistan-bound tanker openly transited Hormuz on Monday, and Iran may cut deals that reinforce its control of who can or cannot pass. Mr. Trump is rallying a coalition, and allies can help reopen the Strait with anti-mine vessels and more. "Numerous countries have told me they're on the way," he said Monday.
Good thing the President hasn't antagonized allies with tariffs or threats to invade Greenland. This is a reminder that treating allies well is wise so they are more likely to help when you really need them.
Retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who has commanded a carrier strike group, recently laid out what a Hormuz operation might look like. First, continue to degrade to a "militarily manageable risk" the missiles, mines, drones and unmanned surface combatants that could threaten U.S. forces and tankers. Second, maintain "an unblinking eye that looks 50 miles on either side of the Strait and 100 miles back."
Third, keep "four or eight aircraft persistently overhead" during convoy operations, equipped with Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems, "a cheap rocket -- $25,000 -- that is extremely effective against Shahed drones." Fourth, have "armed helos" ready to attack small boats that emerge.
Fifth, deploy 10-14 Aegis destroyers, whose air defenses make them "the perfect escort ship." These surface combatants first need to be brought into place, and allies could join later.
This is no easy mission, and "militarily manageable risk" won't be comforting to Americans or energy markets if this goes sideways. But Iran doesn't hold all the cards. Its action in Hormuz could force Mr. Trump to see the war through, which is bad news for the regime.
Two weeks ago the fear in some quarters was that Mr. Trump would end the war when the U.S. ran out of major Iranian military targets to strike, sparing the legion of smaller regime targets Israel wants to hit. Now Tehran has given the U.S. a challenge that could add up to a strategic defeat if Mr. Trump stops early.
Israel would use the time to further weaken Iran's regime by carrying out the full campaign, which Mr. Trump had said was planned for four-to-six weeks. Mr. Trump's comment Sunday that "we may delay" a trip to China, planned for March 31, is a good sign he isn't limiting the war to arbitrary deadlines.
In the longer term, many states will seek alternative supply routes, to avoid the Strait, and even alternative suppliers -- a cost Iran will share with the Gulf states it now attacks. Expect Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E. to add more pipelines to bypass the Hormuz chokepoint.
Armed with missiles and drones, Iran's regime has closed international waters and attacked neighbors' energy facilities. This is while Iran is relatively weak. Imagine how the regime would blackmail the world -- and get away with it -- if it were left to amass twice or three times the missiles, or nuclear weapons.
The Battle for Hormuz underscores the U.S. interest in degrading the ayatollah regime -- and giving Iranians a chance to overthrow it.” [1]
Let’s dream about it. Unfortunately, unblinking eye blinks, when it is punched by a swarm of drones.
1. The Battle for the Strait of Hormuz. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 17 Mar 2026: A14.
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