Ice Age in Europe: Evidence of a Gulf Stream Collapse

 

"Evidence pointing to a weakening—and potential collapse—of the Gulf Stream in the wake of climate change is no longer in short supply. Two studies on this subject have just been published: *Science Advances* has published an analysis of a series of measurements that has the potential to further fuel fears of a "The Day After Tomorrow" future. Researchers from the University of Miami, working alongside Canadian colleagues, published data recorded by deep-sea buoy sensors stationed at four locations across the western Atlantic. The conclusion: Deep-sea water pressure—which provides insight into the volume of water masses being transported northward—reveals a clear trend toward weakening over a period of approximately twenty years.

 

In other words, the global conveyor belt known as the AMOC—often described as part of Europe’s "heating system" because it continuously transports vast quantities of energy from the Gulf of Mexico to Western and Central Europe—is already showing visible and measurable signs of faltering. This is happening now, not merely in the distant future—as is often the case when such global climate "tipping elements" are discussed in the political sphere. Consequently, AMOC expert Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) describes the monitoring stations off the North American East Coast as the "canary in the coal mine"—an ideal tool for tracking the future evolution of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic currents.

 

Significant consequences stemming from the AMOC’s weakening—itself a result of global warming—are likely to become apparent within the coming decades; not least among these is a further acceleration of global warming itself. While Europe and the Arctic are expected to experience a reduced influx of heat—the "Ice Age" scenario depicted in Roland Emmerich’s cinematic blockbuster—the planet as a whole faces far more sweeping repercussions. The global carbon cycle represents one such critical "lever" within this system. PIK Director Johan Rockström, together with colleagues from Goethe University in Frankfurt, fed the "Climber-X" Earth system model with various future scenarios—and, in an analysis published in *Communications, Earth & Environment*, sought to determine how carbon dioxide sources and sinks would behave in the event of a weakening of the AMOC.

 

The result: If polar ice melt releases enough freshwater into the North Atlantic to cause the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current to collapse—triggering a breakdown of the global oceanic conveyor belt—an additional 47 to 83 ppm of climate-damaging carbon dioxide would enter the atmosphere. Climate change would thus be further intensified. However, from a global perspective, this increase amounts to "merely" 0.2 degrees. This process becomes far more drastic and tangible, however, when one examines not the average value, but rather the two climatic extremes: According to the findings, following the collapse, the Arctic would experience an abrupt average drop in annual temperature of seven degrees. In the Antarctic—the region surrounding the South Pole—conversely, so much greenhouse gas would be released into the atmosphere that temperatures there would rise by an average of six degrees."