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2023 m. vasario 1 d., trečiadienis

Trump's Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars

"A few days before America's 2022 midterm elections, Ukraine's President Volodomyr Zelensky accused Russia of firing a rocket into Poland. It was a claim with extraordinary implications. Poland, a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, benefits from the alliance's mutual defense pact -- an attack against one is an attack against all. The U.S. would plausibly have an obligation to respond militarily to a Russian attack inside Poland. In making the accusation, Mr. Zelensky was pushing on the dominoes that could start the world's first war between nuclear powers.

The rocket attack, it turns out, came not from Vladimir Putin's Russia but from Ukrainian air defenses. Even after NATO made that assessment and acknowledged that Russia hadn't fired the rocket, Mr. Zelensky continued to deny Ukrainian responsibility. The story faded from the headlines, and Mr. Zelensky enjoyed a hero's welcome in Washington in December. American taxpayer money has continued to flow to Ukraine. A wiser foreign policy wouldn't have let such conduct go unnoticed.

Bipartisan foreign policy consensus has led the country astray many times. Leadership in both parties supported the invasion of Iraq, the decadeslong nation-building project in Afghanistan, regime change in Libya and guerrilla war in Syria. All of these policies cost a lot of money and killed many. None of those conflicts has served the nation's long-term interest. Very few were ever challenged by a leader of national significance.

That is, of course, until Donald Trump came along. American partisans view Mr. Trump's record primarily through a domestic lens. To my fellow Republicans, Mr. Trump lowered taxes and worked hard to deregulate the federal bureaucracy. To Democrats, Mr. Trump was a corrupt narcissist who earned his two impeachments. Yet neither party acknowledges perhaps the most important part of Mr. Trump's legacy: his successful foreign policy.

My entire adult lifetime has been shaped by presidents who threw America into unwise wars and failed to win them. I had just started high school when George W. Bush was elected president, and his presidency is the first I remember with any detail. Mr. Bush allowed a just war in Afghanistan to turn into a nation-building quagmire and then started an unjust war in Iraq. His successor, Barack Obama, doubled down on nation building in Afghanistan and launched a new war of his own in Libya, with the enthusiastic support of then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

In Mr. Trump's four years in office, he started no wars despite enormous pressure from his own party and even members of his own administration. Not starting wars is perhaps a low bar, but that's a reflection of the hawkishness of Mr. Trump's predecessors and the foreign-policy establishment they slavishly followed. But Mr. Trump did more than simply keep the peace. He brokered the Abraham Accords, a historic agreement between Israel and Sunni Arab states providing the best hope of a long-term counterbalance to Iran. He began the long, slow process of decoupling the U.S. from its economic reliance on China. He opened diplomatic talks with North Korea after a half century of stagnation.

And he pushed hard -- to much derision -- for Europe to take more responsibility for its own defense, precisely so that the U.S. wouldn't be drawn so deeply and dangerously into a conflict like the one in Ukraine.

A common critique of Mr. Trump, even from his ideological allies, is that he lacks "statesmanship." Even people who like his policies wish he exercised more verbal restraint. Fair enough. But there's an implicit critique of America's leaders hidden below the surface of that accusation. Why is it that the people the U.S. trains for leadership are so careful with their words yet so reckless with their actions? Why does America devote billions of dollars to recruiting and training its best young minds for leadership, only to have those minds orchestrate one foreign-policy disaster after another?

The answer is that, from grand-strategy seminars to the State Department, our entire notion of statesmanship is broken. For many, statesmanship means having a polite social-media presence and throwing out slogans about "freedom" and "democracy" while starting world-historic catastrophes in the Middle East. I prefer a different kind of statesmanship: one that stands athwart the crowd, reminding leaders in both parties that the U.S. national interest must be pursued ruthlessly but also carefully, with strong words but great restraint.

Donald Trump's presidency marked the first real disruption to a failed consensus and the terrible consequences it wrought. That fact, more than any single accomplishment, is the enduring legacy of Mr. Trump's first term. But there is much more to do, and I'm supporting him for president in 2024 because he's the only person certain to do it.

---

Mr. Vance, a Republican, is a U.S. senator from Ohio." [1]

Good thinking. We in Eastern Europe should keep in mind that we have many comedians like Mr. Zelensky willing to burn the world in a nuclear disaster just to increase their personal power in their little country. We shouldn't let Mr. Zelensky behave like another our good friend from Afghanistan running away allegedly spilling 100 dollars bills from overfilled suitcases at the airport. At minimum Mr. Zelesky has to rot in Ukrainian prison, like another our good friend Mr. Mikheil Saakashvili is rotting in his native Georgia's prison.

1. Trump's Best Foreign Policy? Not Starting Any Wars
Vance, J D.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 01 Feb 2023: A.15.

 

Prancūzijos darbuotojai surengė naują streiką prieš Macrono pensijų planą

  „Paryžius – daugiau. nei vienas milijonas prancūzų darbuotojų išėjo į gatves antrą kartą per dvi savaites, sukeldami didesnį spaudimą prezidento Emmanuelio Macrono planams padidinti išėjimo į pensiją amžių ir grasindami tolesniais pasitraukimais, dėl kurių didelė šalies dalis gali sustoti.

 

     Streikuojantys mokytojai ir geležinkelių, sveikatos apsaugos ir naftos darbuotojai surengė eitynes dešimtyse miestų, dalyvaudami visoje šalyje vykstančiuose veiksmuose, kuriuos ragina profesinės sąjungos, siekdamos priversti vyriausybę atsitraukti nuo pensijų pertvarkos. Traukinių, metro ir autobusų paslaugos buvo smarkiai apribotos, o dešimtys skrydžių buvo atšaukti. Daugelis mokyklų ir darželių liko uždaryti.

 

     Protestai prasidėjo daugiausia taikiai, bet kai kurie demonstrantų ir policijos susirėmimai kilo, artėjant eitynėms Paryžiuje, kur buvo sulaikyti mažiausiai 23 žmonės.

 

     Antradienio rinkėjų aktyvumas rodo, kad judėjimas įgauna pagreitį ir gilėja profesinių sąjungų nesutarimai su E. Macronu, kuris teigė, kad naujosios priemonės įsigalios iki rudens. Prancūzijos vidaus reikalų ministerijos duomenimis, antradienį į gatves išėjo apie 1,27 mln. prancūzų, palyginti su 1,12 mln. sausio 19 d. Antradienio protestas buvo viena didžiausių demonstracijų pastarosios Prancūzijos istorijoje.

 

     Šalies pensijų sistemos pertvarkymas, kurio esmė yra pensinio amžiaus padidinimas iki 64 metų nuo 62 metų iki 2030 m., buvo vienas pagrindinių E. Macrono perrinkimo kampanijos planų pernai. Jis tvirtino, kad tai vienintelis būdas išsaugoti Prancūzijos pensijų sistemą, nedidinant mokesčių ar nedidinant šalies skolų. Tačiau kai kurie analitikai teigia, kad Prancūzijos lyderiui per antrąją kadenciją bus sunku įgyvendinti likusią jo verslui palankią darbotvarkę, jei jis bus priverstas pakeisti pensijų kursą.

 

     E. Macrono vyriausybė nerodė jokių nusileidimo ženklų. Sekmadienį ministrė pirmininkė Elisabeth Borne pareiškė, kad pensinio amžiaus padidinimas iki 64 metų yra nediskutuotinas.

 

     Prancūzijoje, kaip ir daugelyje kitų šalių, dabartiniai darbuotojai moka pensininkų valstybines pensijas. Tačiau, žmonėms ilgiau gyvenant ir senstant, sumažėjo darbuotojų ir pensininkų santykis, todėl sistema patiria vis didesnį stresą ir verčia vyriausybę didinti išlaidas pensijoms.

 

     Profesinės sąjungos teigia, kad padidinus pensinį amžių bus nubausti žmonės, kurie pradėjo dirbti jauname amžiuje, ir padidės vyresnio amžiaus darbuotojų nedarbas.

 

     Atrodo, kad viešoji nuomonė palaiko protestuotojus. Sausio 26 d. apklausa, kurioje dalyvavo 1007 žmonių, parodė, kad 61% prancūzų remia sąjungas kovoje su vyriausybės planu, palyginti su 58% prieš dvi savaites." [1]

 

1. World News: French Workers Mount New Strike Against Macron's Pension Plan
Bisserbe, Noemie; Dalton, Matthew.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 01 Feb 2023: A.16.

French Workers Mount New Strike Against Macron's Pension Plan

"PARIS -- More than one million French workers took to the streets for the second time in two weeks, piling more pressure on President Emmanuel Macron's plans to raise the retirement age and threatening further walkouts that could grind much of the country to a halt.

Striking teachers and railway, health and oil workers staged marches in dozens of cities as a part of a nationwide day of action called by unions to force the government to back down from its pension overhaul. Train, subway and bus services were severely curtailed, and dozens of flights were canceled. Many schools and nurseries remained closed.

The protests began mostly peacefully, but some clashes erupted between demonstrators and police near the end of the march in Paris, where at least 23 people were detained.

The turnout on Tuesday suggests the movement is gaining momentum, and deepening unions' standoff with Mr. Macron, who has said the new measures will be law by fall. About 1.27 million French people took to the streets on Tuesday, compared with 1.12 million on Jan. 19, according to the French interior ministry. Tuesday's protest was one of the largest demonstrations in recent French history.

Revamping the country's pension system -- the centerpiece of which is raising the retirement age to 64 by 2030 from 62 -- was one of the main planks of Mr. Macron's re-election campaign last year. He has argued that it is the only way to preserve France's pension system without raising taxes or increasing the country's debt. But the French leader will struggle to enact the rest of his pro-business agenda during his second term in office if he is forced to reverse course on pensions, some analysts say.

Mr. Macron's government has shown no sign of backing down. On Sunday, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne said the increase of the retirement age to 64 was nonnegotiable.

In France, as in many other countries, current workers pay for retirees' government pensions. But as people live longer and the population grows older, the ratio of workers to retirees has decreased, putting the system under growing stress and forcing the government to increase its spending on pensions.

Unions say increasing the retirement age will penalize people who started working at a young age and increase unemployment among older workers.

Public opinion appears to back the protesters. A poll of 1,007 people by polling firm Opinionway on Jan. 26 showed 61% of French people support unions in their fight against the government's plan, compared with 58% two weeks earlier." [1]

1. World News: French Workers Mount New Strike Against Macron's Pension Plan
Bisserbe, Noemie; Dalton, Matthew.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 01 Feb 2023: A.16.