How ChatGPT Kicked Off an A.I. Arms Race

“Even inside the company, the chatbot’s popularity has come as something of a shock.

One day in mid-November, workers at OpenAI got an unexpected assignment: Release a chatbot, fast.

The chatbot, an executive announced, would be known as “Chat with GPT-3.5,” and it would be made available free to the public. In two weeks.

The announcement confused some OpenAI employees. All year, the San Francisco artificial intelligence company had been working toward the release of GPT-4, a new A.I. model that was stunningly good at writing essays, solving complex coding problems and more. After months of testing and fine-tuning, GPT-4 was nearly ready. The plan was to release the model in early 2023, along with a few chatbots that would allow users to try it for themselves, according to three people with knowledge of the inner workings of OpenAI.

But OpenAI’s top executives had changed their minds. Some were worried that rival companies might upstage them by releasing their own A.I. chatbots before GPT-4, according to the people with knowledge of OpenAI. And putting something out quickly using an old model, they reasoned, could help them collect feedback to improve the new one.

So they decided to dust off and update an unreleased chatbot that used a souped-up version of GPT-3, the company’s previous language model, which came out in 2020.

Thirteen days later, ChatGPT was born.

In the months since its debut, ChatGPT (the name was, mercifully, shortened) has become a global phenomenon. Millions of people have used it to write poetry, build apps and conduct makeshift therapy sessions. It has been embraced (with mixed results) by news publishers, marketing firms and business leaders. And it has set off a feeding frenzy of investors trying to get in on the next wave of the A.I. boom.

It has also caused controversy. Users have complained that ChatGPT is prone to giving biased or incorrect answers. Some A.I. researchers have accused OpenAI of recklessness. And school districts around the country, including New York City’s, have banned ChatGPT to try to prevent a flood of A.I.-generated homework.

Yet little has been said about ChatGPT’s origins, or the strategy behind it. Inside the company, ChatGPT has been an earthshaking surprise — an overnight sensation whose success has created both opportunities and headaches, according to several current and former OpenAI employees, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.

An OpenAI spokesman, Niko Felix, declined to comment for this column, and the company also declined to make any employees available for interviews.

Before ChatGPT’s launch, some OpenAI employees were skeptical that the project would succeed. An A.I. chatbot that Meta had released months earlier, BlenderBot, had flopped, and another Meta A.I. project, Galactica, was pulled down after just three days. Some employees, desensitized by daily exposure to state-of-the-art A.I. systems, thought that a chatbot built on a two-year-old A.I. model might seem boring.

But two months after its debut, ChatGPT has more than 30 million users and gets roughly five million visits a day, two people with knowledge of the figures said. That makes it one of the fastest-growing software products in memory. (Instagram, by contrast, took nearly a year to get its first 10 million users.)

The growth has brought challenges. ChatGPT has had frequent outages as it runs out of processing power, and users have found ways around some of the bot’s safety features. The hype surrounding ChatGPT has also annoyed some rivals at bigger tech firms, who have pointed out that its underlying technology isn’t, strictly speaking, all that new.

ChatGPT is also, for now, a money pit. There are no ads, and the average conversation costs the company “single-digit cents” in processing power, according to a post on Twitter by Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, likely amounting to millions of dollars a week. To offset the costs, the company announced this week that it would begin selling a $20 monthly subscription, known as ChatGPT Plus.

Despite its limitations, ChatGPT’s success has vaulted OpenAI into the ranks of Silicon Valley power players. The company recently reached a $10 billion deal with Microsoft, which plans to incorporate the start-up’s technology into its Bing search engine and other products. Google declared a “code red” in response to ChatGPT, fast-tracking many of its own A.I. products in an attempt to catch up.

Mr. Altman has said his goal at OpenAI is to create what is known as “artificial general intelligence,” or A.G.I., an artificial intelligence that matches human intellect. He has been an outspoken champion of A.I., saying in a recent interview that its benefits for humankind could be “so unbelievably good that it’s hard for me to even imagine.” (He has also said that in a worst-case scenario, A.I. could kill us all.)

As ChatGPT has captured the world’s imagination, Mr. Altman has been put in the rare position of trying to downplay a hit product. He is worried that too much hype for ChatGPT could provoke a regulatory backlash or create inflated expectations for future releases, two people familiar with his views said. On Twitter, he has tried to tamp down excitement, calling ChatGPT “incredibly limited” and warning users that “it’s a mistake to be relying on it for anything important right now.”

He has also discouraged employees from boasting about ChatGPT’s success. In December, days after the company announced that more than a million people had signed up for the service, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, tweeted that it had reached two million users. Mr. Altman asked him to delete the tweet, telling him that advertising such rapid growth was unwise, two people who saw the exchange said.

OpenAI is an unusual company, by Silicon Valley standards. Started in 2015 as a nonprofit research lab by a group of tech leaders including Mr. Altman, Peter Thiel, Reid Hoffman and Elon Musk, it created a for-profit subsidiary in 2019 and struck a $1 billion deal with Microsoft. It has since grown to around 375 employees, according to Mr. Altman — not counting the contractors it pays to train and test its A.I. models in regions like Eastern Europe and Latin America.

From the start, OpenAI has billed itself as a mission-driven organization that wants to ensure that advanced A.I. will be safe and aligned with human values. But in recent years, the company has embraced a more competitive spirit — one that some critics say has come at the expense of its original aims.

Those concerns grew last summer when OpenAI released its DALL-E 2 image-generating software, which turns text prompts into works of digital art. The app was a hit with consumers, but it raised thorny questions about how such powerful tools could be used to cause harm. If creating hyper-realistic images was as simple as typing in a few words, critics asked, wouldn’t pornographers and propagandists have a field day with the technology?

To allay these fears, OpenAI outfitted DALL-E 2 with numerous safeguards and blocked certain words and phrases, such as those related to graphic violence or nudity. It also taught the bot to neutralize certain biases in its training data — such as making sure that when a user asked for a photo of a C.E.O., the results included images of women.

These interventions prevented trouble, but they struck some OpenAI executives as heavy-handed and paternalistic, according to three people with knowledge of their positions. One of them was Mr. Altman, who has said he believes that A.I. chatbots should be personalized to the tastes of the people using them — one user could opt for a stricter, more family-friendly model, while another could choose a looser, edgier version.

OpenAI has taken a less restrictive approach with ChatGPT, giving the bot more license to weigh in on sensitive subjects like politics, sex and religion. Even so, some right-wing conservatives have accused the company of overstepping. “ChatGPT Goes Woke,” read the headline of a National Review article last month, which argued that ChatGPT gave left-wing responses to questions about topics such as drag queens and the 2020 election. (Democrats have also complained about ChatGPT — mainly because they think A.I. should be regulated more heavily.)

As regulators swirl, Mr. Altman is trying to keep ChatGPT above the fray. He flew to Washington last week to meet with lawmakers, explaining the tool’s strengths and weaknesses and clearing up misconceptions about how it works.

Back in Silicon Valley, he is navigating a frenzy of new attention. In addition to the $10 billion Microsoft deal, Mr. Altman has met with top executives at Apple and Google in recent weeks, two people with knowledge of the meetings said. OpenAI also inked a deal with BuzzFeed to use its technology to create A.I.-generated lists and quizzes. (The announcement more than doubled BuzzFeed’s stock price.)

The race is heating up. Baidu, the Chinese tech giant, is preparing to introduce a chatbot similar to ChatGPT in March, according to Reuters. Anthropic, an A.I. company started by former OpenAI employees, is reportedly in talks to raise $300 million in new funding. And Google is racing ahead with more than a dozen A.I. tools.

Then there’s GPT-4, which is still scheduled to come out this year. When it does, its abilities may make ChatGPT look quaint. Or maybe, now that we’re adjusting to a powerful new A.I. tool in our midst, the next one won’t seem so shocking.”

Most importantly, ChatGPT gives shorter and clearer answers than what a poor teacher or a Google search can provide. Therefore, it can be used for faster and better learning. Especially useful in medical and legal sciences and writing apps.

Vaistai nuo nutukimo kelia iššūkius --- Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly stengiasi padidinti pajėgumus ir draudimo apsaugą

  "Nauji vaistai, padedantys žmonėms mesti kilogramus, yra labai populiarūs. Visi nuo Holivudo įžymybių iki Elono Musko išbando šiuos vaistus, kurie pirmą kartą buvo patvirtinti diabetui gydyti, net jei tai reiškia, kad jie taikomi ne pagal paskirtį.

 

     Dabar atidžiai stebimas klausimas, ar pirmaujančios bendrovės, gaminančios šią naują vaistų klasę, žinomą kaip GLP-1, gali neatsilikti nuo paklausos ir įtikinti draudikus apie platesnę naudą pacientų sveikatai. Dviejų pirmaujančių šių naujų vaistų gamintojų „Eli Lilly“ ir „Novo Nordisk“ akcijos ketvirtadienį smuko, nes „Lilly“ finansiniai rezultatai neatitiko išpūstų lūkesčių.

 

     Lilly ketvirtadienį pranešė, kad Mounjaro, kuris šiuo metu yra patvirtintas tik diabetui gydyti, ketvirtąjį ketvirtį pardavimai siekė 279 mln. dolerių, o tai yra mažiau, nei 288 mln. dolerių, kurių tikėjosi analitikai. „Mounjaro“ dabar yra apdraustas šiek tiek daugiau, nei 50% žmonių, apdraustų iš įmonių arba „Medicare“, o tai „tik nežymiai daugiau, nei 45%, atskleisti trečiojo ketvirčio rezultatų skaidrėse“, rašė SVB vertybinių popierių analitikas Davidas Risingeris. Lilly šiais metais tikisi gauti Maisto ir vaistų administracijos (FDA) leidimą naudoti tą patį junginį nuo nutukimo.

 

     Lilly skaičiai buvo neblogi, tačiau investuotojai nerimauja po to, kai tiek Novo Nordisk, tiek Lilly akcijų vertė buvo fenomenali. „Novo Nordisk“ akcijos per dvejus metus padvigubėjo ir tapo vertingiausia vaistų kompanija Europoje. Lilly per tą laikotarpį pabrango daugiau, nei 50% ir dabar yra vertingiausia JAV, išskyrus Johnson & Johnson. Tiek „Lilly“, tiek „Novo Nordisk“ prekiauja aukštomis kainomis ir pajamomis, palyginti su jų kolegomis farmacijos srityje. Atnaujinimai iš įmonių daugiausia buvo entuziastingi. „Novo Nordisk“ trečiadienį pranešė, kad 2022 m. vaistų nuo nutukimo pardavimai padvigubėjo, o naujausias vaistas „Wegovy“ siekė apie 900 mln. dolerių.

 

     Kol kas užsitęsusi paklausa reiškia, kad pacientai juda greičiau, nei gali pakelti sveikatos priežiūros sistema. Abi bendrovės stengiasi padidinti pasiūlą. „Novo Nordisk“ vadovai trečiadienį sakė, kad bendrovė susiduria su pajėgumų apribojimais, kurie greičiausiai nesumažės. Siekdama tai išspręsti, „Novo Nordisk“ planuoja padidinti kapitalo išlaidas iki maždaug 3,7 mlrd. dolerių 2023 m., sakė vadovai. Lilly ketvirtadienį pranešė, kad šiais metais į gamybos vietas investuoja 3,3 mlrd. dolerių.

 

     Tiekimo trūkumas mažėja. Gruodžio pabaigoje „Novo Nordisk“ pranešė, kad visos Wegovy dozės gruodžio mėn. vėl buvo prieinamos JAV.

 

     Didesnis, sudėtingesnis klausimas yra tai, kas mokės, kai paklausa smarkiai išauga. „Novo Nordisk“ vaistas nuo nutukimo yra brangus, kainuoja daugiau, nei 1000 dolerių per mėnesį, ir jis vis dar nėra plačiai taikomas. 

 

Bendrovė trečiadienį pranešė, kad iš maždaug 110 milijonų amerikiečių, kenčiančių nuo nutukimo, 40 milijonų dabar turi prieigą prie Wegovy, 30 milijonų iš komercinės rinkos ir 10 milijonų iš Medicaid. Tačiau viena didžiausių rinkų – senjorai – priklauso nuo Medicare, kuri vis dar neapima vaistų nuo nutukimo.

 

     „Lilly“ ir „Novo Nordisk“ atlieka ilgalaikius tyrimus, kurie, jų manymu, įrodys komerciniams ir vyriausybiniams draudikams, kad šių vaistų nauda gerokai viršija svorio metimą ir kitus pavojus sveikatai, pvz., miego apnėja, širdies nepakankamumą ir inkstų ligas. „Novo Nordisk“ klinikinio tyrimo, žinomo kaip „Select“, rezultatai bus paskelbti metų viduryje. Tyrimo metu bus įvertinta jo nutukimo vaisto semaglutido, aktyvaus vaisto Wegovy, nauda, gydant nuo širdies ligų ir insulto.

 

     „Manome, kad teigiamų rezultatų duomenys palaikys nutukimo terapijos vertės pasiūlymą mokėtojams“, – rašė Cantor Fitzgerald analitikė Louise Chen anksčiau šiais metais, prognozuodama, kad vaistų nuo nutukimo gamintojams bendra galimybė sieks daugiau, nei 50 mlrd. dolerių metinių pardavimų.

 

     Žinoma, šie vaistai kelia daug įspūdžių. Žvelgiant į priekį, bet kas, išskyrus įspūdingą augimą, nuvils investuotojus." [1]

 

1. Obesity Drugs Offer Challenges --- Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly are working to increase capacity, insurance coverage
Wainer, David.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Feb 2023: B.12.

Obesity Drugs Offer Challenges --- Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly are working to increase capacity, insurance coverage

"New drugs that help people shed pounds are all the rage. Everyone from Hollywood celebrities to Elon Musk is trying out these medications -- which were first approved to treat diabetes -- even if it means going off-label.

Whether the leading companies making this new class of drugs known as GLP-1s can keep up with demand and convince insurers of the wider benefit to patients' health is now a closely watched question. Shares of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, the two leading manufacturers of these new drugs, were both down on Thursday as Lilly's financial results came in short of hyped-up expectations.

Lilly on Thursday reported that Mounjaro, which is currently approved for diabetes only, notched sales of $279 million for the fourth quarter, shy of the $288 million estimated by analysts on Visible Alpha. Mounjaro is now covered for slightly more than 50% of people insured by companies or Medicare, which is "up only marginally from 45% disclosed in 3Q results slides," SVB Securities analyst David Risinger wrote. Lilly is hoping to obtain Food and Drug Administration approval for the use of the same compound against obesity this year.

Lilly's numbers weren't bad, but investors are jittery after both Novo Nordisk and Lilly had phenomenal stock runs. Shares of Novo Nordisk have doubled in two years, making it the most valuable drug company in Europe. Lilly is up more than 50% in that period and is now the most valuable one in the U.S. excluding Johnson & Johnson. Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk trade at sky-high price/earnings multiples compared with their pharma peers. The updates from the companies have been mostly enthusiastic. Novo Nordisk said on Wednesday that obesity-drug sales doubled in 2022, with its newest drug, Wegovy, reaching about $900 million.

For now, pent-up demand means patients are moving faster than the healthcare system can bear. Both companies are scrambling to increase supply. Novo Nordisk executives said Wednesday that the company is facing capacity constraints that are unlikely to abate soon. To address this, Novo Nordisk plans to increase capital expenditures to about $3.7 billion in 2023, executives said. Lilly said Thursday it is making $3.3 billion in investments in manufacturing sites this year, creating a "substantial expansion of capacity" to support drugs such as Mounjaro.

The supply shortages are easing. Novo Nordisk said in late December that all Wegovy dose strengths had been made available again in the U.S. in December.

The bigger, more challenging question is who is going to pay as demand skyrockets. Novo Nordisk's obesity drug is expensive, costing more than $1,000 a month, and it still isn't widely covered. The company said Wednesday that of about 110 million Americans suffering from obesity, 40 million now have access to Wegovy, with 30 million from the commercial market and 10 million from Medicaid. But one of the largest markets -- seniors -- depends on Medicare, which still doesn't cover anti-obesity drugs.

Both Lilly and Novo Nordisk are working on longer-term studies that they hope will prove to commercial and government insurers that the benefit of these drugs extends well beyond weight loss to other health risks such as sleep apnea, heart failure and kidney disease. Results from a Novo Nordisk clinical trial known as Select will be released sometime midyear. The trial will assess the benefit of its obesity drug semaglutide, the active medicine in Wegovy, for heart disease and stroke.

"We believe positive outcomes data will support the value proposition of obesity therapies to payers," Louise Chen, an analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald, wrote in a report earlier this year, predicting the total opportunity for obesity-drug makers at more than $50 billion in annual sales.

There is certainly a lot of excitement for these drugs. Going forward, anything short of spectacular growth will disappoint investors." [1]

1. Obesity Drugs Offer Challenges --- Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly are working to increase capacity, insurance coverage
Wainer, David.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Feb 2023: B.12.