Is IT history repeating itself?

   "The AI Economic Impact Index shows which economies will benefit most from the AI revolution. It could - as in the past - be the USA.

 

     100 years ago, electricity and the internal combustion engine caused a changing of the guard in the global economy: The United States introduced these technologies more quickly, benefited more from them and thus overtook Great Britain as the leading economic nation. Is history now repeating itself?

 

     Artificial intelligence as a new basic technology will also have far-reaching consequences for the economy and prosperity. How much a country benefits from this technology depends largely on three factors: the willingness of companies to invest, the willingness of employees to learn and the quality of regulation in the country.

 

     For the race for AI, the American think tank Capital Economics looked at the three central criteria for important economies. For AI, the information and communications revolution, starting with the invention of the World Wide Web in the 1990s, is probably the best indication.

 

     At that time, the United States benefited the most, with productivity gains of 1.5 percent per year. With AI, the gains could be greater. While the WWW has primarily facilitated contact between companies and consumers, AI will have many more business use cases that will directly increase productivity.

 

     As in the first  information and communication technologies' (ICT) revolution between 1995 and 2004, the United States will achieve the greatest productivity gains in the AI era, estimates Capital Economics. In its “AI Economic Impact Index,” the United States scored 70 points, clearly ahead of Singapore in second place. Americans are not only investing most heavily in AI, they are also founding the most startups and adapting their training the fastest. The forecast is that they will benefit most from the upcoming productivity boost in terms of wages.

 

     The developed countries of Asia follow with an average of 50 index points. China is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, but rigid regulation hinders rapid adaptation in companies and slows economic progress.

 

     In Europe's major economies, several factors are slowing progress. Even in the first ICT revolution, the EU, unlike the USA, did not receive a productivity boost. On this point, history may be repeating itself: Europe's less developed venture capital industry, relatively poor cloud infrastructure and its complicated regulation do not bode well for its innovation potential, says the Capital Economics report.

 

     But there is still time to change something. "As with previous technologies, productivity growth is likely to be a slow increase rather than a miraculous surge. Any productivity gains are more likely to occur in the late 2020s and early 2030s than in the next few years," the report says. However, there isn't much time left to rest." [1]

1. Wiederholt sich IT-Geschichte? Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Oct 3, 2023.Von Holger Schmidt

ES technologijų blokada prieš Kiniją

  „Komisija nori apriboti Kinijos prieigą prie keturių itin svarbių technologijų – nuo ​​dirbtinio intelekto iki genų inžinerijos. Tai prasideda testavimu nepalankiausiomis sąlygomis, o sprendimai turėtų būti priimti pavasarį.

 

     Europos Komisija tęsia jos Kinijos strategiją. Paskelbusi antisubsidijų procedūrą elektromobiliams iš Kinijos, Briuselio valdžia dabar taikosi į svarbiausias technologijas, kurias, jei įmanoma, norėtų neleisti iš strateginės konkurentės, tokios, kaip Kinija. Dešimt technologijų ji įvardijo, kaip jautrias.

 

Ji nori iki metų pabaigos kartu su valstybėmis narėmis išsamiai išanalizuoti keturias iš jų, kad nustatytų, ar jos nekelia grėsmės ES ekonominiam saugumui. Be šiuolaikinių puslaidininkių technologijų, tai dirbtinis intelektas, kvantinės technologijos ir biotechnologijos, ypač genų inžinerija.

 

     Komisija, siekdama atrinkti itin svarbias technologijas, taikė tris kriterijus: kad jomis būtų galima piktnaudžiauti kariniais tikslais ir pažeidžiant žmogaus teises, ir kad jos gali turėti permainingą poveikį sektoriams arba visai ekonomikai. Kalbama apie ES ekonomikos pionieriaus vaidmens užtikrinimą ar išplėtimą arba bent jau neleisti ES atsilikti nuo Kinijos. Taip pat turėtų būti išbandytas tiekimo grandinių saugumas.

 

     Visa tai atitinka naujosios Briuselio politikos dėl rizikos mažinimo logiką, kuria ES ketinama sumažinti jos priklausomybę nuo Kinijos. Fonas taip pat yra pavasarį Nyderlandų įvestas draudimas eksportuoti į Kiniją lustų gamybos mašinas. Tai įvyko, spaudžiant JAV. Komisija nori geriau koordinuoti tokius veiksmus ateityje.

 

     „Ekonominio saugumo strategija“

 

     Komisija antradienį kelis kartus pabrėžė, kad svarbiausių technologijų sąrašas buvo sudarytas, neatsižvelgiant į atskiras šalis, todėl nėra nukreiptas prieš Kiniją. Tačiau geopolitiniai aspektai tikrai turėjo įtakos, pripažino vyresnioji darbuotoja. Komisijos pirmininko pavaduotoja Margrethe Vestager birželį, pristatydama „ekonominio saugumo strategiją“, kuria grindžiamas sąrašas, atvirai pasakė, kad jokia kita šalis, išskyrus Rusiją, negali būti laikoma apribojimų gavėja.

 

Komisija paliko atvirą klausimą, kokių veiksmų imsis ES, jei atlikusi rizikos analizę padarytų išvadą, kad reikia imtis veiksmų. Tai turėtų būti nuspręsta pavasarį.

 

     Be tikslinio technologijų skatinimo subsidijomis ir bendradarbiavimu su trečiosiomis šalimis, saugumo strategijoje taip pat numatytos „apsaugos priemonės“. Čia iškiltų ne tik eksporto kontrolė, bet ir nauja trečiųjų šalių įmonių investicijų kontrolė, kurią pasiūlė ES Komisijos pirmininkė Ursula von der Leyen. ES Komisija pasiūlymą nori pateikti iki metų pabaigos. Tai yra daugybė naujų „prekybos priemonių“, kurias ES neseniai sukūrė, siekdama imtis veiksmų prieš Kiniją.

 

     Berlynas prieš naują investicijų kontrolę

 

     Antradienį Europos Parlamentas priėmė kovos su šantažu priemonę, pagal kurią ES nori apsisaugoti nuo Kinijos, besinaudojančios prekyba politiniams interesams ginti.

 

     Neaišku, ar naujoji investicijų kontrolė gali būti priimta iki 2024 m. Europos Parlamento rinkimų. Berlynas tam griežtai priešinasi. Tikėtina, kad Vokietija smarkiai nukentės dėl intensyvios prekybos ir Vokietijos įmonių veiklos Kinijoje. Svarbių technologijų sąrašas Komisijoje buvo prieštaringas. Teigiama, kad ES pramonės komisaras Thierry Bretonas siekė ilgesnio sąrašo.

 

     Artimieji jam teigė, kad sąrašas nėra baigtinis. Kaip ES elgsis su kitomis šešiomis dabartinio sąrašo technologijomis ir ar joms taip pat atliks rizikos analizę, Komisija ir valstybės kartu spręs pavasarį.

 

Energija taip pat yra sąraše. Nepaisant nieko, Komisija iki mėnesio pabaigos nori pateikti pasiūlymus, kaip ES galėtų apsaugoti savo vėjo pramonę nuo augančios Kinijos konkurencijos. Didžiausias dėmesys, tikriausiai bus skiriamas valstybėms, kurios, sudarydamos sutartis, pirmenybę teikia ES įmonėms, susiejant jas su aplinkosaugos ar darbo standartais." [1]

 

1. EU Technologieblockade gegen China. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online)Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Oct 3, 2023. Von Hendrik Kafsack, Brüssel

EU technology blockade against China.

   "The Commission wants to restrict China's access to four critical technologies, from artificial intelligence to genetic engineering. It starts with a stress test and decisions should be made in the spring.

 

     The European Commission is pushing ahead with its China strategy. After announcing anti-subsidy proceedings against electric cars from China, the Brussels authority is now targeting critical technologies that it would like to withhold from a strategic rival like China if possible. The European Commission identified ten technologies as sensitive. The European Commission wants to comprehensively analyze four of them together with the member states by the end of the year to determine whether they pose a threat to the EU's economic security.

 

 In addition to modern semiconductor technology, these include artificial intelligence, quantum technology and biotechnology, especially genetic engineering.

 

     The Commission has applied three criteria to select critical technologies: that they can be misused for military purposes and the violation of human rights, and that they can have a transformative effect on sectors or the economy as a whole. It is about securing or expanding the EU's economic pioneering role or at least preventing the EU from falling behind in comparison to China. The security of the supply chains should also be tested.

 

     All of this follows the logic of the new Brussels policy on de-risking, with which the EU is intended to reduce its dependence on China. The background is also the ban that the Netherlands imposed in the spring on the export of chip production machines to China. This happened under pressure from the USA. The Commission wants to better coordinate such steps in the future.

 

     "Economic Security Strategy"

 

     The Commission emphasized several times on Tuesday that the list of critical technologies was drawn up without regard to individual countries and was therefore not directed against China. However, geopolitical aspects did play a role, a senior employee admitted. Commission Vice-President Margrethe Vestager openly said in June when presenting the “economic security strategy” on which the list is based that no other country could be considered as a recipient apart from Russia. The Commission left it open what steps the EU would take if, after the risk analysis, it came to the conclusion that there was a need for action. That should be decided in the spring.

 

     In addition to the targeted promotion of technologies through subsidies and cooperation with third countries, the security strategy also provides for “protective measures”. Export controls would come into question here, but also the new controls for investments by companies in third countries proposed by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU Commission wants to submit a proposal by the end of the year. It follows a whole series of new "trade instruments" that the EU has recently created to take action against China.

 

     Berlin against the new investment controls

 

     On Tuesday, the European Parliament passed the anti-blackmail instrument with which the EU wants to protect itself against China exploiting trade to enforce political interests.

 

     It is uncertain whether the new investment controls can be passed by the European elections in 2024. Berlin is strictly against it. Germany is likely to be severely affected because of the intensive trade and activities of German companies in China. The list of critical technologies was controversial within the Commission. EU Industry Commissioner Thierry Breton is said to have pushed for a longer list.

 

     Those close to him said that the list was not exhaustive. How the EU will deal with the other six technologies on the current list and whether it will also subject them to a risk analysis will be decided jointly by the Commission and the states in the spring. Energy is also on the list. 

 

Regardless, the Commission wants to present proposals by the end of the month on how the EU can protect its wind industry from growing competition from China. 

 

The focus will probably be on states specifically giving preference to EU companies when awarding contracts by tying them to environmental or labor standards.” [1]

1. EU Technologieblockade gegen China. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online)Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Oct 3, 2023. Von Hendrik Kafsack, Brüssel