"The AI Economic Impact Index shows which economies will benefit most from the AI revolution. It could - as in the past - be the USA.
100 years ago, electricity and the internal combustion engine caused a changing of the guard in the global economy: The United States introduced these technologies more quickly, benefited more from them and thus overtook Great Britain as the leading economic nation. Is history now repeating itself?
Artificial intelligence as a new basic technology will also have far-reaching consequences for the economy and prosperity. How much a country benefits from this technology depends largely on three factors: the willingness of companies to invest, the willingness of employees to learn and the quality of regulation in the country.
For the race for AI, the American think tank Capital Economics looked at the three central criteria for important economies. For AI, the information and communications revolution, starting with the invention of the World Wide Web in the 1990s, is probably the best indication.
At that time, the United States benefited the most, with productivity gains of 1.5 percent per year. With AI, the gains could be greater. While the WWW has primarily facilitated contact between companies and consumers, AI will have many more business use cases that will directly increase productivity.
As in the first information and communication technologies' (ICT) revolution between 1995 and 2004, the United States will achieve the greatest productivity gains in the AI era, estimates Capital Economics. In its “AI Economic Impact Index,” the United States scored 70 points, clearly ahead of Singapore in second place. Americans are not only investing most heavily in AI, they are also founding the most startups and adapting their training the fastest. The forecast is that they will benefit most from the upcoming productivity boost in terms of wages.
The developed countries of Asia follow with an average of 50 index points. China is investing heavily in artificial intelligence, but rigid regulation hinders rapid adaptation in companies and slows economic progress.
In Europe's major economies, several factors are slowing progress. Even in the first ICT revolution, the EU, unlike the USA, did not receive a productivity boost. On this point, history may be repeating itself: Europe's less developed venture capital industry, relatively poor cloud infrastructure and its complicated regulation do not bode well for its innovation potential, says the Capital Economics report.
But there is still time to change something. "As with previous technologies, productivity growth is likely to be a slow increase rather than a miraculous surge. Any productivity gains are more likely to occur in the late 2020s and early 2030s than in the next few years," the report says. However, there isn't much time left to rest." [1]
1. Wiederholt sich IT-Geschichte? Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online) Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Oct 3, 2023.Von Holger Schmidt
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