China Is Suffering a Brain Drain. The U.S. Isn’t Exploiting It.

"China’s brightest minds, including tech professionals, are emigrating, but many are not heading to America. We spoke to them to ask why. (Xinmei Liu/The New York Times)

They went to the best universities in China and in the West. They lived middle-class lives in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen and worked for technology companies at the center of China’s tech rivalry with the United States.

Now they are living and working in North America, Europe, Japan, Australia — and just about any developed country.

Chinese — from young people to entrepreneurs — are voting with their feet to escape political oppression, bleak economic prospects and often grueling work cultures. Increasingly, the exodus includes tech professionals and other well-educated middle-class Chinese.

“I left China because I didn’t like the social and political environment,” said Chen Liangshi, 36, who worked on artificial intelligence projects at Baidu and Alibaba, two of China’s biggest tech companies, before leaving the country in early 2020. He made the decision after China abolished the term limit for the presidency in 2018, a move that allowed its top leader, Xi Jinping, to stay in power indefinitely.

“I will not return to China until it becomes democratic,” he said, “and the people can live without fear.” He now works for Meta in London.

I interviewed 14 Chinese professionals, including Chen, and exchanged messages with dozens more, about why they decided to uproot their lives and how they started over in foreign countries. Most of them worked in China’s tech industry, which was surprising because the pay is high.

But I was most surprised to find that most of them had moved to countries other than the United States. China is facing a brain drain, and the United States isn’t taking advantage of it.

In the 1980s and 1990s, when China was poor, its best and brightest sought to study and work — and stay — in the West. Emigration, on net, peaked in 1992 with more than 870,000 people leaving the country, according to the United Nations. That number fell to a low of roughly 125,000 in 2012, as China emerged from poverty to become a tech power and the world’s second-biggest economy.

The Chinese government worked hard to keep them, rolling out incentives to lure back scientists and other skilled people. In 2016, more than 80% of Chinese who studied abroad returned home, according to the Ministry of Education, up from about one-quarter two decades earlier.

The trend has reversed. In 2022, despite passport and travel restrictions, more than 310,000 Chinese, on net, emigrated, according to the U.N. data. With three months to go this year, the number has reached the same level as the whole of 2022.

Quite a few people I interviewed said, like Chen, that they had started thinking of leaving the country after China amended its constitution to allow Xi to effectively rule for life. The “zero-COVID” campaign, with nearly three years of constant lockdowns, mass testing and quarantines, was the last straw for many of them.

Most people I interviewed asked that I use only their family names for fear of government retaliation.

One of them, Fu, worked as an engineer at a state-owned defense tech enterprise in southwestern China when he decided to leave. He found that after the constitutional amendment, he and his colleagues spent more time participating in political study sessions than working, forcing everyone to work overtime.

As Xi increasingly ruled by fear and propaganda, the social and political atmosphere grew tense and suffocating. Fu said he had become estranged from his parents after arguing about the necessity of the strict pandemic restrictions, which he objected to. He barely spoke with anyone and lived in a political closet. Late last year, he quit and applied for a work visa in Canada. Now, he and his wife are on their way to Calgary, Alberta.

Most of the emigrants I spoke to, explaining why they did not pick the United States, cited America’s complicated and unpredictable process for applying for visas and permanent resident status.

The number of student visas granted by the United States to Chinese nationals, long a starting point for promising future emigrants, began to fall in 2016, as relations between the countries deteriorated. In the first six months of 2023, Britain granted more than 100,000 study visas to Chinese nationals, while the United States granted roughly 65,000 F1 student visas.

Fu said he hadn’t considered the United States because he studied at a university that is on Washington’s sanction list and he worked at a defense company — both could make it tough for him to pass the U.S. government’s security screening procedure. But he said he would eventually like to work in the country, which he idolizes.

Some tech professionals chose Canada and European countries over the United States because of their better social benefits, work-life balance and gun control laws.

When Zhang decided to emigrate in July 2022, she made a list: Canada, New Zealand, Germany and Nordic countries. The United States didn’t make it because she knew it would be extremely difficult for her to get a work visa.

Zhang, 27, a computer programmer, felt the hustle culture of Silicon Valley was too similar to China’s grueling work environment. After putting in long hours at a top tech company in Shenzhen for five years, she was done with that. 

She also sought a country where women were treated more equally. This year, she moved to Norway. After paying taxes for three years and passing the language exam, she will get permanent residency.

Zhang said she didn’t mind that she was making about $20,000 less than in Shenzhen, and paying higher taxes and living expenses. 

She can finish her day at 4 p.m. and enjoy life outside work. 

She doesn’t worry that she will be considered too old for employment when she turns 35, a form of discrimination that many Chinese experience. She doesn’t live in constant fear that the government will roll out a policy like “zero-COVID” that will turn her life on its head.

Most of the tech professionals I talked to took a pay cut when they emigrated. “I feel like I’m paying for liberty,” said Zhou, a U.S.-educated software engineer who quit his job at an autonomous-driving startup in Beijing. He now works at an automobile company in Western Europe. “It’s worth it,” he said.

Another emigrant, Zhao, described his long and anxious journey to the United States.

He grew up in a poor village in China’s eastern Shandong province and came to the United States for a doctoral degree in engineering five years ago. At the beginning, he intended to return after graduation later this year — China was on the rise, he believed, unlike America.

But China’s response to the pandemic caused Zhao to start questioning his beliefs.

“I can’t go back to a country where everything was built on lies,” he said.

But it won’t be easy to stay in the United States. Zhao has a job offer and will get temporary employment status as a graduate in a STEM, or science or engineering, field. That will last three years. He will participate in a lottery for an H-1B work visa. He did the math: There’s a 40% chance he won’t win the lottery by the end of the three years. He might have to go back to school to remain in the United States, or ask his company to transfer him to a foreign post.

“Sometimes when I think about this at night, I feel that life is full of misery and uncertainty,” Zhao said. “Then I can’t sleep.”" [1]

1. China Is Suffering a Brain Drain. The U.S. Isn’t Exploiting It. Li, Yuan.  New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 09 Oct 2023.

Krovinių gabenimo jūra įkainiai mažėja, nes paklausa mažėja --- Nuo 2022 m. pradžios kainos sumažėjo net 90 %, nes vežėjai atšaukia reisus.

  „Tai buvo aneminis piko sezonas vandenynų krovinių vežėjams, nes konteinerių gabenimo tarifai nukrito nuo pandemijos aukštumų, o amerikiečiai ir europiečiai ir toliau atsisako pirkti plataus vartojimo prekes.

 

     Kasdieninės rinkos kainos, pervežant krovinius iš Azijos į JAV ir Europą rugsėjį, palyginti su 2022 m. pradžioje, sumažėjo net 90 proc., o tai yra blogas ženklas laivų operatoriams, nes reisai dažnai būna nuostolingi dabartiniais tarifais.

 

     Remiantis laivybos platformos „Xeneta“ duomenimis, didžiausi konteinerių vežėjai šiais metais masiškai atšaukė reisus, daugiausia maršrutu iš Kinijos uostų į JAV vakarinę pakrantę. Šį mėnesį planuojama atšaukti daugiau maršrutų po Auksinės savaitės atostogų Kinijoje, kai gamybos vietos buvo tuščios, teigia dežės laivų vadovai ir brokeriai.

 

     Laivų operatoriai taip pat naikina laivus, kad sumažintų veiklos sąnaudas, todėl rugsėjį, palyginti su prieš metus, konteinerių talpa sumažėjo 7 proc., sakė Norvegijoje įsikūrusios „Xeneta“ vyriausiasis analitikas Peteris Sandas.

 

     Tokios įmonės kaip A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mediterrane Shipping ir CMA CGM šiais metais ruošėsi sunkesniam laikui po to, kai „Covid“ padidino jos veiklą ir pelną. „Maersk“, kuris laikomas pasaulinės prekybos varpu, rugpjūtį uždirbo 2,9 mlrd. dolerių pelną, palyginti su 10,3 mlrd. dolerių per tą patį laikotarpį pernai.

 

     Pigesni tarifai naudingi gabenimo klientams, pavyzdžiui, dideliems mažmenininkams, kuriems per Covid-19 pandemiją susidūrė su bėdomis, tarp kurių staigus krovinių vežimo jūra kainų padidėjimas ir pajėgumų apribojimai.

 

     Krovinių judėjimas vandenynu yra pagrindinė pasaulinės prekybos sudedamoji dalis, o veiklos sulėtėjimas parodo, kaip stambūs siuntėjai vis atsargiau žiūri į produktų užsakymus. Konteinerių laivai perkelia daugiau, nei 95% pagamintų prekių.

 

     Įprastais metais mažmenininkai, tokie, kaip Amazon.com, Target ir Walmart, atveža didesnius krovinių kiekius vasaros mėnesiais prieš metų pabaigos apsipirkimo sezoną. Dėl to vežėjai dislokuoja daugiau laivų, kad patenkintų padidėjusią paklausą.

 

     Tai neįvyksta šiais metais, tęsiant mėnesius trunkančią žemiausių kainų ir silpnos paklausos tendenciją. Didmeninės prekybos atsargos pastaraisiais mėnesiais mažėjo, tačiau jos gerokai viršija priešpandeminį lygį – tai ženklas, kad prekių užsakymai kurį laiką gali išlikti sumažėję.

 

     Kiti krovinių pervežimo būdai taip pat yra susiję su sumažėjusios paklausos ir pramonės sukrėtimų pasekmėmis.

 

     Tas nerimas užplūsta ir pirkėjus. JAV vartotojų pasitikėjimas rugsėjį nukrito iki žemiausio lygio per keturis mėnesius dėl susirūpinimo dėl aukštesnių kainų ir galimo nuosmukio, nors namų ūkiai iš esmės liko optimistiški dėl darbo rinkos. Įdarbinimas paspartėjo – rugsėjį buvo sukurta 336 000 naujų darbo vietų, o tai yra didžiausias mėnesinis padidėjimas nuo sausio mėnesio.

 

     Lėtesnis piko sezonas lėmė, kad Los Andželo ir Long Byčo uostuose Kalifornijoje, dviejuose didžiausiuose šalies eksporto iš Azijos taškuose, perkraunama mažiau konteinerių.

 

     Vidutinė paros pervežimo kaina iš Šanchajaus į Los Andželą buvo maždaug 1 800 dolerių už dėžę rugsėjį, palyginti su daugiau nei 7 000 dolerių 2022 m. rugsėjį. Per 2021 m. pandemiją pervežimo įkainiai pasiekė rekordinius 20 000 dolerių už dėžę.

 

     Didelių krovinių savininkai gali užsifiksuoti palankesnius siuntimo įkainius sudarę ilgalaikes sutartis iki metų. Tačiau kai žlunga neatidėliotinų prekių rinka, siuntėjai bando iš jų pasitraukti.

 

     Žmonės, žinantys apie didelių mažmenininkų gabenimo išlaidas, sako, kad šiais metais gabenimo jūra išlaidos sumažėjo vidutiniškai 45%. Tie žmonės teigė, kad kai kurie mažmenininkai aktyviai derasi dėl mažesnių kainų, dėl kurių susitarta pagal ilgalaikes krovinių gabenimo sutartis, pasirašytas pernai ar anksčiau šiais metais.

 

     "Ateityje mažai kas gero matoma. Vežėjai kas savaitę kovoja su siuntėjais dėl tarifų", - sakė "Xeneta's Sand".

 

     Didieji vežėjai viešai neatskleidžia krovinių gabenimo sutarties detalių. „Xeneta“ duomenys rodo, kad per pastaruosius tris mėnesius pasirašytų ilgalaikių sutarčių su dideliais siuntėjais skaičius sumažėjo 69%.

 

     Siekdami sustiprinti verslą, laivų savininkai siunčia turimus laivus į Rytų pakrantę, todėl Amerikos importuotojai daugiausia iš Europos patiria mažiausias transporto išlaidas per daugelį metų.

 

     Kitas grėsmingas kainodaros ženklas yra tai, kad kitais metais bus pristatyta daugiau dėžės laivų. Londone įsikūrusio laivybos brokerio „Braemar“ duomenimis, laivyno pajėgumai per metus iki rugsėjo padidėjo 4,7%, o konteinerių prekybos paklausa sumažėjo 2,3%. „Braemar“ skaičiavimais, bendras laivyno pajėgumas šiais metais turėtų padidėti 8,3%, o kitais metais – 8,9%.

 

     „Laineriai peržiūri pajėgumų valdymą, kad apimtų agresyvų griovimą, ilgalaikius plaukiojimus ir svarsto galimybę atidėti naujų laivų statybą, atsižvelgiant į tai, kiek pablogės rinka“, – sakė Braemaro konteinerių laivybos analitikas Jonathanas Roachas." [1]

1. Rates to Ship Cargo by Sea Slump as Demand Weakens --- Prices are down as much as 90% from early 2022, as carriers cancel sailings. Paris, Costas.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Oct 2023: B.1.

Rates to Ship Cargo by Sea Slump as Demand Weakens --- Prices are down as much as 90% from early 2022, as carriers cancel sailings.

"It has been an anemic peak season for ocean freight haulers as container shipping rates have plunged from pandemic highs and Americans and Europeans continue to pull back on purchases of consumer goods.

Daily market prices to move cargo from Asia to the U.S. and Europe in September were down as much as 90% from early 2022, a bad sign for ship operators since voyages are often unprofitable at current rates.

The largest container carriers have responded by canceling sailings en masse this year, mainly on the route from ports in China to the U.S. West Coast, according to data from shipping platform Xeneta. More cancellations are planned this month following the Golden Week holiday in China where manufacturing sites were idled, say boxship executives and brokers.

Ship operators are also mothballing vessels to keep operating costs down, resulting in a 7% reduction in container capacity in September compared with a year ago, said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Norway-based Xeneta.

Companies such as A.P. Moller-Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping and CMA CGM have been bracing for leaner times this year after Covid delivered a surge in business and profits for their operations. Maersk, which is seen as a bellwether for global trade, posted in August a second-quarter profit of $2.9 billion, compared with $10.3 billion in the same period last year.

The cheaper rates benefit shipping clients such as large retailers, which faced steep price increases for ocean- freight transportation and capacity restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Ocean-freight movement is a key component of global trade, and the slowdown in activity illustrates how large shippers are increasingly cautious about product orders. Container ships move more than 95% of manufactured goods.

In normal years retailers such as Amazon.com, Target and Walmart bring in larger amounts of cargo in the summer months ahead of the year-end shopping season. As a result, carriers deploy more ships to handle the stepped-up demand.

That isn't happening this year, continuing a monthslong trend of rock-bottom prices and weak demand. Wholesale inventories have been ticking down in recent months, but they are well above prepandemic levels, a sign that orders for goods may remain depressed for some time.

Other modes of moving freight are also dealing with the fallout from weaker demand and industry shakeouts.

That unease is also trickling down to shoppers. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a four-month low in September amid concerns about higher prices and a possible recession, though households remained generally upbeat about the labor market. Hiring accelerated, with 336,000 new jobs added in September, the highest monthly increase since January.

A slower peak season has meant that the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in California, the country's two biggest entry points for Asian exports, are handling fewer containers.

The average daily freight rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles stood at around $1,800 a box in September, down from more than $7,000 in September 2022. Freight rates hit a record $20,000 a box during the pandemic in 2021.

Big cargo owners can lock in preferable shipping rates under long-term contracts lasting up to a year. But when the spot market collapses, the shippers try to get out of them.

People with knowledge about freight costs for large retailers say they have seen an average 45% decline in ocean-shipping expenses this year. Those people said some retailers are actively negotiating to lower prices agreed to under long-term freight contracts signed last year or earlier this year.

"There is little visibility going forward. Carriers are fighting with shippers weekly over rates," said Xeneta's Sand.

Big carriers don't publicly disclose freight-contract details. Figures from Xeneta show that the number of long-term contracts signed over the past three months with big shippers was down 69%.

In a bid to drum up business, shipowners are sending available vessels to the East Coast, giving American importers mainly from Europe some of the lowest transport costs in years.

Another ominous sign for pricing is that more boxships are being delivered over the next year. Fleet capacity for the year through September was up 4.7%, while container trade demand fell 2.3%, according to London-based shipping broker Braemar. Overall fleet capacity is slated to increase 8.3% this year and 8.9% next year, Braemar estimates show.

"Liners are reviewing capacity management to include aggressive demolition, long-term blanked sailings, and considering delaying newbuildings, depending on how distressed the market becomes," said Braemar container shipping analyst Jonathan Roach." [1]

1. Rates to Ship Cargo by Sea Slump as Demand Weakens --- Prices are down as much as 90% from early 2022, as carriers cancel sailings. Paris, Costas.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Oct 2023: B.1.