US vs. BRICS?

"Saudi Arabia and Israel have quietly been negotiating a peace deal that would be greased with a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty. So why is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman putting that at risk by joining the BRICS group of nations?

That's the question that emerged Tuesday as Saudi state TV said the Kingdom has officially joined the BRICS bloc. 

BRICS stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, the group's longtime members. They began as developing nations bent mainly on growth.

But in recent years, led by China and Russia, the BRICS have evolved into a diplomatic bloc bent on countering Western influence. The bloc would like to create an alternative system of global finance that is less dependent on the U.S. dollar for transactions and would be less vulnerable to Western sanctions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping in particular has been urging the BRICS to expand in order to increase their clout against the U.S. and its allies. Last year the group issued invitations to the Saudis, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran, Ethiopia and Argentina. New Argentine President Javier Milei has turned down the invitation, which shows good judgment given how much his country needs Western financing. The BRICS get him nothing.

The same can't be said for the judgment of the Saudis. Negotiations over a rapprochement between the Kingdom and Israel have been in recess since the Israel-Hamas war that began on Oct. 7. But our sources say both sides would like to resume talks once the war ends, and negotiations are close to 70% done.

The Saudis want Mideast stability to focus on modernization and economic development. Crucial to that stability is a security guarantee from the U.S. akin to what Washington has with Australia and Japan. This would be insurance against Iranian-Shiite aggression.

The question is why a country seeking such a guarantee would align itself with a bloc of nations that now includes Iran, Russia and China -- America's main global adversaries. Russia -- meaning Vladimir Putin -- is the BRICS president pro tem in 2024. That hardly sends a reassuring message to the U.S. Senate, which would have to approve a defense treaty with 67 votes.

 Those votes won't be easy to get as it is, given hostility on the Democratic left to the Crown Prince.

South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham put the point squarely in a tweet on Tuesday: "Does the United States Senate view a country joining BRICS as an effort to enhance that nation's relationship with the U.S.?" He also asked whether a country aligned economically with Iran -- "a state sponsor of terrorism under U.S. law" -- would be subject to U.S. sanctions against Iran.

The Biden Administration may not be warning off the Saudis from joining the BRICS. 

But somebody should if the Crown Prince really wants a defense pact with the U.S." [1]

 

1. The Saudis Stumble Over BRICS. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.16.

 

„Žodis „krizė“ yra per daug vartojamas, tačiau jis tiksliai apibūdina, su kuo Ukraina susiduria prasidėjus 2024-iesiems

   "Remiantis naujausiu „Washington Post“ pranešimu, fronto linijoje esantiems kariams baigiasi amunicija. Artilerijos sviediniai yra normuojami, todėl ukrainiečiai verčiami atšaukti suplanuotus puolimus ir tai apsunkina jų gynybinių pozicijų laikymąsi. Neseniai Ukrainos bataliono atstovas spaudai sakė, kad amunicijos trūkumas privertė jo padalinį nuo vasaros sumažinti šaudymo dažnį 90 proc. „Mums visko trūksta“, – sakė kito padalinio narys. Nors jo bendražygiai yra labai motyvuoti, jis pridūrė: „Negalima laimėti konflikto, vien tik motyvuojant“. Jis abejojo, kad jie galėtų ilgiau išlaikyti savo poziciją.

 

     Ukrainos sąjungininkai blaškosi. Kongresas išvyko atostogų, neišsprendęs įstatyminės aklavietės dėl tolesnės JAV pagalbos Ukrainai. Vengrijos prorusiškas lyderis vetavo Europos Sąjungos siūlomą 52 mlrd. dolerių perdavimą. Jei šios kliūtys nebus greitai nutrauktos, Ukrainos gebėjimas išlaikyti konfliktą, jos ekonomika ir pagrindinės vyriausybės funkcijos bus pažeistos.

 

     Tai avarinė padėtis. Jei derybininkai negali pasiekti susitarimo iki to laiko, kai vėl susirenka Senatas, prezidentas Bidenas turi tiesiogiai įsitraukti. Beveik neabejojama, kad į susitarimą būtų įtrauktos nuostatos dėl imigracijos, kurios daugeliui demokratų nepatiks, tačiau tokią kainą jis turi sumokėti už tai, kad situacija prie JAV pietinės sienos taptų kontroliuojama. Tuo tarpu Europos valstybės turi sutelkti politinę valią teikti Kijevui pagalbą tarp šalių, jei kyšiai ir grasinimai negalės priversti Vengrijos premjero Viktoro Orbano nutraukti jo pasipriešinimą ES planui.

 

     Net jei pagalba Ukrainai būtų atnaujinta, būtina pagalvoti apie realistišką konflikto pabaigą.  Ukrainos išliaupsintas kontrapuolimas žlugo, nes Rusijos sustiprinta gynyba atsilaikė. Rusijos ekonomika pasirodė esanti atsparesnė, nei tikėtasi, o karinę gamybą ji didina daug greičiau. nei Ukraina ir jos sąjungininkės. Konfliktas atskleidė Vakarų gynybos pramoninės bazės ištuštėjimą, ypač Europoje ir didžiąja dalimi JAV, kolektyvinis Vakarų nesugebėjimas aprūpinti Ukrainą jai reikalingų artilerijos sviedinių yra aplaidumas, kurį ištaisyti prireiks metų.

 

     Ukrainos prezidentas Volodymyras Zelenskis neseniai atskleidė, kad Ukrainos kariniai lyderiai nori mobilizuoti papildomus 500 000 karių, o tai pareikalautų nepopuliarių Ukrainos įstatymų projektų pakeitimų ir papildomų 13 mlrd. dolerių. Nors Rusijos prezidentas Vladimiras Putinas taip pat atsižvelgė į politinius sumetimus, Rusijos darbo jėgos rezervas yra maždaug keturis kartus didesnis, nei Ukrainos, o Rusijos ekonomika devynis kartus didesnė.

 

     Naujausi pranešimai, kurių V. Putinas neneigė, rodo, kad jis yra pasirengęs sutikti su paliaubomis, esant dabartinėms kovos linijoms.

 

      Vakarų lyderiai turėtų išsiaiškinti, ar jis rimtai ketina nutraukti konfliktą. Būtų neprotinga manyti, kad viešoji nuomonė Vakaruose neribotą laiką palaikys neterminuotą įsipareigojimą konfliktui, kuris atsistojo į aklavietę.

 

     Toks susitarimas būtų karti piliulė ukrainiečiams. Tačiau tai vienintelis realus kelias į ilgalaikę taiką Europoje.“ [1]

 

1. Politics & Ideas: Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire. Galston, William A.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.15.

"The word "crisis" is overused, but it accurately describes what Ukraine faces as 2024 begins.

"According to a recent report in the Washington Post, troops on the front line are running out of ammunition. Artillery shells are being rationed, forcing the Ukrainians to cancel planned assaults and making it hard to hold defensive positions. A press officer for a Ukrainian battalion recently said that ammunition shortages had forced his unit to reduce its rate of firing by 90% since the summer. "We lack everything," a member of another unit said. Although his comrades are highly motivated, he added, "You can't win a conflict only on motivation." He doubted they could hold their position much longer.

As Ukraine struggles, its allies dither. Congress went home for the holiday without resolving the legislative impasse over continuing U.S. aid for Ukraine. Hungary's pro-Russian leader vetoed the European Union's proposed $52 billion assistance package. If these logjams aren't broken soon, Ukraine's ability to sustain the conflict, its economy, and the basic functions of its government will be jeopardized.

This is an all-hands-on-deck emergency. If negotiators can't reach a deal by the time the Senate reconvenes, President Biden must get directly involved. There is little doubt that an agreement would include provisions on immigration that many Democrats won't like, but that's the price he must pay for allowing the situation at the southern border to spin out of control. Meanwhile, European nations must muster the political will to provide Kyiv with country-to-country aid if bribes and threats can't force Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to end his opposition to the EU plan.

Even if aid for Ukraine is renewed, it is essential to consider a realistic ending for the conflict. Ukraine's vaunted counteroffensive failed as Russia's reinforced defenses held. Russia's economy has proved more resilient than expected, and it is ramping up military production much faster than Ukraine and its allies. The conflict has exposed the hollowing out of the West's defense industrial base, in Europe especially and to a considerable extent in the U.S. The West's collective inability to provide Ukraine with the artillery shells it needs is evidence of neglect that will take years to remedy.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently disclosed that Ukraine's military leaders wanted to mobilize an additional 500,000 troops, which would require unpopular changes to Ukraine's draft laws and additional outlays of $13 billion. While Russian President Vladimir Putin has also been mindful of political considerations, Russia's manpower pool is about four times the size of Ukraine's, and its economy is nine times as large.

Recent reports, which Mr. Putin hasn't denied, suggest that he is ready to agree to a cease-fire along the current battle lines.

 Western leaders should explore whether he is serious about ending the fighting. It would be unwise to assume that public opinion in the West will indefinitely support an open-ended commitment to a conflict that has settled into a stalemate.

This arrangement would be a bitter pill for the Ukrainians. But it is the only realistic path to a lasting peace in Europe." [1]

1. Politics & Ideas: Ukraine May Have to Accept a Cease-Fire. Galston, William A.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.15.

 

Ir jums bus tas pats, jei vėl išrinksite konservatorius į valdžią Lietuvoje

„Kijeve ir kituose miestuose vyrai gaudomi gatvėse ir vežami į kariuomenę, todėl kai kurie iš jų lieka namie visą dieną." [1]

 
 1. World News: Russia Steps Up Drone, Missile Attacks --- Second big salvo in less than a week puts new strains on Kyiv's air defenses. Lovett, Ian; Nikolaienko, Nikita.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.6.

And it will be the same for you if you elect conservatives to power in Lithuania again

  "In Kyiv and other cities, men are being pulled off the street and taken to recruiting offices, leading some to stay inside all day." [1]
 

 1. World News: Russia Steps Up Drone, Missile Attacks --- Second big salvo in less than a week puts new strains on Kyiv's air defenses. Lovett, Ian; Nikolaienko, Nikita.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2024: A.6.

Is there going to be a NATO war with Russia or not?

What, are you blind? Zelensky is now losing the conflict because the nuclear powers are so serious about avoiding war between them. The nuclear war would end badly for everyone, including us. No one in the world is even talking about the possibility of such a war.

 

Why do the rulers of Lithuania, starting with President Nausėda and ending with the last lice-ridden Landsbergis, talk about nothing else but the nuclear war? Because they want to distract us talking scary things to us and steal our money. They say: "The Russians are attacking, the Russians are attacking - we're taxing your last apartment... No, you don't want to? You're bad."

 

And again: "The Russians are attacking, the Russians are attacking, we are introducing a war tax... No, you don't want to? You are bad." If you want these speeches to end, don't elect them to power yourself, and advise others not to.

Tai ar bus NATO karas su Rusija, or jo nebus?

Ką, jūs akli? Zelenskis dabar pralaimi konflikte todėl, kad branduolinės valstybės taip rimtai vengia karo tarp jų. Tas karas blogai baigtųsi visiems, tame tarpe ir mums. Niekas pasaulyje ir nekalba apie tokio karo galimybę. 

Kodėl Lietuvos valdantieji, pradedant Prezidentu Nausėda, baigiant paskutiniu utėlių apgraužtu Landsbergiu apie nieką kitą nekalba, tik apie karą? Todėl, kad nori dar užkalbėti mums dantis ir pavogti iš mūsų pinigų. Sako: "Rusai puola, rusai puola - apmokestinam tavo paskutinį butą... Ne, nenori? Esi negeras."

Ir vėl: "Rusai puola, rusai puola, įvedam karo mokestį... Ne, nenori? Esi negeras." Jei norite, kad šitos kalbos baigtųsi, nerinkite į valdžią jų patys, ir kitiems patarkite nerinkti.