The End of Nuclear Arms Control

"The arms-control architecture of the late Cold War era is falling apart, and the latest evidence comes from no less than the true arms-control believers in the Biden Administration. The State Department told Congress this week that Russia is stiff-arming inspections stipulated in the New Start treaty between the U.S. and Moscow.

That must have been a painful admission since President Biden extended the treaty in his first days in office. The agreement caps deployed strategic nukes at 1,550 warheads. The U.S. and Russia were supposed to meet in Cairo in November for periodic talks prescribed in the treaty, but Moscow canceled. State says without the ability to "spot-check" Russian warhead declarations, it can't be certain that Russia honored the treaty's bounds last year, albeit it "likely" did.

Moscow blames its intransigence on U.S. help for Ukraine, but Russia's behavior is "a surprise to no one," as Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, the ranking Republican on Senate Foreign Relations, said Tuesday. The Trump Administration pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty.

The Senate ratified New Start in 2010 but only after extracting a pledge by President Obama to modernize the aging U.S. nuclear arsenal. The modernization is proceeding, slowly. But New Start has since devolved into an anachronism from a world that no longer exists.

New Start doesn't cover Russia's arsenal of up to 2,000 tactical nuclear weapons (U.S. inventory is estimated at about 230). 

The treaty also doesn't touch hypersonic weapons, even as Russia and China continue to develop these and other advanced weapons that can target the U.S. homeland.

Oh, and another small problem: The country now amassing nukes at a furious clip isn't a party to the treaty. China's "operational nuclear warheads stockpile has surpassed 400," a Defense Department report said last fall. That is double the Pentagon's estimate from 2020. "If China continues the pace of its nuclear expansion," the 2022 report said, it will have about 1,500 warheads by 2035.

All of this was evident in 2021 when New Start was set to expire, and our contributor John Bolton suggested a six-month extension that would allow talks to continue. But President Biden waved the treaty through for five years, now in force until 2026. That wishful thinking has been exposed with Russia's refusal to comply with inspections.

House and Senate GOP lawmakers on the Armed Services committees warned on Tuesday that the Pentagon needs to "prepare for a future where Russia may deploy large numbers of warheads" in violation of the treaty. The urgent priority is expanding U.S. missile defenses, as well as updating the U.S. ground, air and sea nuclear deterrent.

The Biden Administration could also revisit its mistake in trying to cancel the nuclear sea-launched cruise missile. The Biden Administration is no doubt eager to save New Start, but any agreement that hamstrings U.S. defenses makes the world more dangerous." [1]

Good. Our aging forgetful boys are eager to play war. The only thing that is keeping us out of World War III are the nukes. The more of them the better, since the probability of taking out all of the at once is reduced. Less possibilities to win a nuclear war makes our world safer.

1. The End of Nuclear Arms Control
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 03 Feb 2023: A.14.