China's Ukraine Peace Gambit

"China is elbowing its way into the Ukraine events on the side of Russia, and it isn't making more friends in the bargain. The latest example is the 12-point peace plan China floated on Friday that would help Vladimir Putin consolidate his gains in Ukraine.

Most of Beijing's 12 points are too vague to mean anything -- for instance, the second item warns against a "Cold War mentality." But two points in the plan are revealing about Beijing's concerns and the weakness of its Russia strategy.

One is a criticism of "unilateral sanctions," meaning sanctions imposed on Russia by Western allies without approval of the United Nations Security Council. Mr. Xi has been alarmed to discover that the West is able and willing to unite behind sanctions against Russia after the Ukraine invasion -- a bad omen for China if Mr. Xi invades Taiwan.

China also says it "stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role" in Ukraine's postwar reconstruction. Beijing may hope it can cash in on Ukraine's immense needs after the war. But Mr. Xi's friendship with Mr. Putin has encouraged greater skepticism across the West about commercial ties to China.

Meanwhile, Western officials are warning that China may be preparing to send artillery and armed drones to help Russia. This would be a hostile act that would result in further economic decoupling between China and the West.

The diplomatic stakes for Mr. Xi came to the fore in a speech by German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at the U.N. Thursday. "We do have a peace plan right here in front of us," she said. "It's called the Charter of the United Nations. Its principles, which apply to every state, are very simple: Sovereign equality. Territorial integrity. And the non-use of force.” (She recently said something along the lines: “Just pretend changing, turn around by 360 degrees and proceed doing the same crap." (K)) This was a pointed jab at the plan Beijing was on the verge of releasing. It's all the more notable coming from a senior German official after so many years when Berlin was wary of offending Beijing.

Mr. Xi may still conclude he can't afford to let his Russian ally suffer in Ukraine. He's more likely to do so if he senses that Western support for Ukraine is faltering. Beijing no doubt understands all this. American politicians who believe Ukraine is a distraction from the strategic competition with China rather than part of that competition might want to clue in, too." [1]

1. China's Ukraine Peace Gambit
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 Feb 2023: A.14.