Western Sanctions Are Failing To Halt Russia's Conflict Effort

"Two years after events in Ukraine started, Western sanctions have failed in their most important task -- stopping the Kremlin's military  machine.

Western officials and experts say the financial, economic, military and energy sanctions imposed on Russia since February 2022 have damaged Russia's economy and arms-production capacity, and will create serious problems for the Kremlin in the coming years. But they acknowledge the restrictions have hit more slowly than they hoped.

This week, Western countries are adopting new sanctions against Russia. For the first time, the European Union will target companies from mainland China when its measures are announced on Saturday, officials say, shifting from efforts to persuade Beijing not to undercut sanctions to a more forceful approach.

The U.K. on Wednesday imposed sanctions on six Russians it said were involved in the death of leading opposition figure Alexei Navalny, disclosed on Feb. 16.

On Thursday, London also announced new sanctions aimed at Russia's commodities and armaments sector. That included several oil traders and shipping companies, and three Chinese firms that have been supplying sanctioned electronics and drone engines to Russia. Under the sanctions, no U.K. entity can do business with the firms.

The Biden administration is planning to announce on Friday a raft of sanctions to punish Moscow, both over Navalny's death and its continued conflict  in Ukraine, but U.S. officials privately concede that the new measures are likely to land a limited blow.

The Biden administration argues that such measures will over time strangle the Russian economy and defense industry, and hamper its ability to wage conflict  on Ukraine, while naming and isolating officials complicit in human-rights abuses. "This is another turn of the crank, another turn of the wheel," national-security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters this week.

For Russia, dodging sanctions has become a priority. The Kremlin has directed Russian intelligence services to find channels for evasion, Western officials say. Moscow has increased trade with China, India and other countries not subscribing to the Western measures, helping it sell energy and secure the supply of critical imports for the conflict.

Russia has used shell companies and neighboring countries to buy components used in weapons. And it has obtained a large number of old vessels operating under opaque ownership to circumvent a Western-imposed oil-price cap.

Moscow's avoidance of sanctions has created an elaborate cat-and-mouse game. Western officials design measures to hurt Russia, but the Kremlin eventually adapts, forcing the U.S. and European policymakers back to the drawing board. It is a competition the Kremlin can't afford to lose. Western officials believe Russia can't produce enough ammunition on its own.

However, with Ukraine on the defensive and U.S. support for Ukraine facing political opposition, sanctions haven't prevented Russia from vastly increasing military spending this year.

Iran and North Korea have delivered drones and missiles to Russia, while China and Turkey have helped provide Moscow with a regular supply of Western-made dual-use goods its military depends on to conduct the conflict.

Unlike with past sanctions against Iran or North Korea, Russia's economic weight has made it hard to isolate. So has the fact it exports not just oil and gas but also resources including uranium and titanium on which Western economies rely.

U.S., British and EU officials have visited capitals around the world to persuade neutral countries not to undercut sanctions on critical military and dual-use goods. The effort has had some success in places including Central Asia but less with giant economies including India, Brazil and China, which have shunned sanctions on Russia.

"The medium-term prognosis for the Russian economy is not good," said David O'Sullivan, the EU's Russia sanctions czar. "But the time frame is not necessarily in sync with what is needed on the battlefield."

After events in Ukraine started, the U.S. and its partners saw sanctions as the third pillar in supporting Ukraine, alongside economic and military aid for Kyiv. They hoped the measures, which have been unprecedented in scale, would deprive Russia of modern, high-tech weaponry, curb Russian revenue and inflict enough economic pain to persuade the Kremlin to seek peace.

Results have been mixed. U.S. and European officials say their sanctions have deprived Russia of around 400 billion euros, or $433 billion, in revenue they would otherwise have had since February 2022.

Western officials on Wednesday said sanctions were hurting Russia's military industry and would prevent the Kremlin from producing enough ammunition for its conflict needs.

Yet a study from the Kyiv School of Economics published in January found that roughly 95% of the 2,800 foreign components found in Russian weapons on the battlefield since the conflict  started were Western. Over 70% came from U.S. firms.

In relatively few cases was Russia buying components from Western vendors. China and Hong Kong accounted for roughly 69% of the entities making final sales to Russia of components, the study said. However, sanctions enforcement in the EU, where it is divided among several national authorities, has helped Moscow maintain critical supplies.

Western officials say China has become increasingly emboldened as the conflict  has progressed and Chinese companies are providing Russia with chemicals to make explosives and other components that are helping it make more weapons. Chinese firms have also discussed sending drones to Russia, the officials said." [1]

It is interesting to see an effect of the sanctions on the sanctioning people. The sanctions are hitting prices of everything, most importantly, food, in the West, giving people insecurity feeling. Western politicians are getting the heat from their constituency. Many will loose their jobs in elections this year.

1. World News: Western Sanctions Are Failing To Halt Russia's Conflict Effort. Norman, Laurence; Kantchev, Georgi.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 23 Feb 2024: A.8.