"Pundits have already dubbed 2024 the "podcast election." The narrative goes like this: President Trump won over young men -- historically low-propensity voters -- by courting prominent podcasters Theo Von, Adin Ross and Joe Rogan. Kamala Harris ignored these shows and lost the chance to reach their millions of devoted listeners. The rest is history.
It's a compelling story. But the truth is more interesting. And it has greater implications for all Americans, regardless of whether they're ordinary voters or sophisticated political operatives.
The Trump campaign's key strategists attribute their victory not to podcast appearances but to a finely tuned advertising strategy that used new techniques to target undecided voters with messages that the campaign knew would move the needle. Specifically, the campaign found that "a disproportionate share of those undecided or swayable voters could be found on streaming services," as a recent New York Times article noted. Approximately half of up-for-grabs voters didn't have cable and subscribed only to streaming platforms like Hulu, ESPN+, YouTube TV and Pluto.
That presented the Trump campaign with an unprecedented opportunity.
Most streaming platforms allow advertisers to choose exactly who sees their ads.
The campaign and allied super PACs chose wisely. Operatives worked to "pair their polling data with consumer information and match it to the voter rolls in the seven swing states. The end result was an actual list of 6.3 million individual voters."
Modern analytics tools enable the Trump campaign and any other advertiser, whether a trade association looking to sway public opinion on a niche issue or a company hoping to boost sales, to assemble such lists with staggering precision. By combining publicly available voter files with purchasable information from credit-card companies, internet service providers, and other data brokers, it's possible to match voters with the unique "device IDs" of their laptops, desktops, smartphones and tablets. From there, it's possible to build accurate profiles based on purchasing, browsing and location histories.
The Trump campaign could push ads about its Make America Healthy Again agenda to a newly registered 20-year-old Hispanic male who frequents the gym, regularly listens to Mr. Rogan, streams UFC fights, and buys vitamins at GNC. Or the campaign could push ads featuring Mr. Trump's and JD Vance's pledges not to ban abortion -- perhaps even featuring footage from their podcast appearances, where both men built trust with audiences by offering longer-form, nuanced takes -- to reassure voters who were pro-choice but favored Mr. Trump's immigration or economic policies.
David Lee, a pollster for one of the largest pro-Trump super PACs, told the Times that the campaign "hit" these voters "over and over and over again" with tailored ads on streaming platforms. That precision targeting "saved us an enormous amount of money," bragged campaign co-chairman Chris LaCivita.
This new way of campaigning will render location-based advertising obsolete. A prime example is YouTube, which doesn't allow political campaigns to target individual users, making it no different from a network or cable TV channel that delivers a one-size-fits-all message to audiences based on geographic location. That approach might be inexpensive, but it won't move voters because it incorrectly assumes that undecided voters are all persuadable with the same message.
Political campaigns at every level will increasingly pay for microtargeted digital ads to reach the voters they need with the exact messages those voters find most compelling. Trade associations and issue-advocacy groups might not be able to get their people booked on "The Joe Rogan Experience," but they can still hammer home a message to the voting public at large, or a handful of key lawmakers or regulators via targeted ads. The rise of digital targeting could be good news for ordinary Americans too. It could mean fewer irrelevant TV commercials and less junk mail.
Podcasts undeniably have value. They provide an incredible opportunity to humanize a candidate and build trust with an audience. They give politicians the chance to address critics' valid concerns and tell their own stories in ways that go beyond the sound bite. And they're invaluable for testing different messages. It's no coincidence that Mr. Trump started his podcast tour with relatively lower-profile hosts and worked his way up to Mr. Rogan.
But content is only as effective as its distribution. A new day is dawning for political campaigns, issue-advocacy groups, and Fortune 1000 companies looking to reach the audiences that matter most. Precision targeting is the future. The Trump campaign just got there first.
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Ms. Manning is CEO of Swann Street Media, a digital agency specializing in advocacy and political campaigns." [1]
1. 2024: the 'Device ID' Election. Manning, Jamie. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 03 Jan 2025: A11.
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