"If you believe national figures owe it to the country to speak in scripted and uninteresting ways, Donald Trump is already a big disappointment. You also know where to point the finger: Joe Biden did everything right if his goal was to restore Mr. Trump to office.
But it's easier to make sense of Mr. Trump's rhetorical gambits, including threatening to control Panama and Greenland by force, than you might think.
-- Razzle-dazzle. He inherits an economy rolling along fine, no pressing crisis and a burst of financial-market confidence now that Obama-Biden-style aggression against the private sector is in the rearview mirror.
Mr. Trump's unambiguous and nettlesome promise was to solve the Ukraine conflict in 24 hours. He may yet deliver a deal but it won't be a glorious one. It will open new avenues of risk and controversy as Mr. Trump tries to hand over to the unwilling Europeans the job of arming Ukraine and deterring Russia.
Also in the cards: an early Beijing provocation in the South China Sea, aimed just below Mr. Trump's threshold of irritability, to further erode U.S. deterrence in the region. In enlarging the geopolitical playing field to include areas where the U.S. is more advantageously placed, Mr. Trump not only distracts, he reminds us the playing field is bigger and more favorable than we might have remembered.
-- Stating the obvious. He's saying what more decorous and perhaps wiser presidents don't feel the need to emphasize. The U.S. stands ready to exert control over the Panama Canal in any conflict with China. It stands ready, in one fashion or another, to assert control over Greenland to protect vital communications between the U.S. and Europe. The U.S. already has large forces based in Europe. They need to be supported. Also Greenland contains rare minerals that aren't really rare: China's power comes from controlling the processing, which it uses to favor sourcing that it also controls. The underpopulated Danish territory is one of the West's best opportunities to flip this table.
-- Ugly realism. In the early days of events in Ukraine, Trump ally Mike Pompeo urged military support of Ukraine but also said if Russia prevails "we'll live in that world." If Taiwan succumbs to political or military pressure from China, the U.S. will live in that world too.
If Mr. Trump sometimes seems readily resigned to this version of the future, more pessimistic in line with his dog-eat-dog view of human nature, we were clearly anyway entering a period of geopolitical tumult. The world may be sliding toward a new era of armed and antagonistic regional blocs. It would be premature to assume so and also foolish not to consider the possibility.
But there's an upbeat scenario too. Mr. Trump's pessimism isn't as radical as it seems. If he sees a chance of success, he's actually quite ready to be swayed by, and ultimately eager for the favor of, conventional foreign-policy types who believe Ukraine and Taiwan should be upheld, who believe global alliances should be strengthened to protect an open global trading system. That's why he keeps demanding Europe up its defense spending. NATO was on a path to snuff itself out without Mr. Trump's help if it remained an alliance in which only one ally -- the U.S. -- was capable of deploying force in the common defense.
Delving into the weeds for a moment, it may be my view and not Mr. Trump's, but if his threats curb Greenland's rush for independence from Denmark, this would be a good outcome for the U.S.
The Danes have been responsible stewards. Denmark is a loyal NATO ally. Anathema ought to be handing over its giant, indefensible island hinterland to 56,000 local voters. Notice how the "resource curse" has turned the Mideast into a byword of stability and progress. The gap between present status and expectations is even vaster and more dislocating -- on paper, every Greenlander is a multimillionaire given the wealth under their feet.
These are circumstances to undo almost any newly independent nation. In how many years might an outside military have to intervene if demagogues and kleptocrats come to power?
Mr. Trump has dominated the downtime between election and inauguration with his stink-bomb musings on age-old geopolitical questions. He successfully crowded other world leaders and their words off the stage, consolidating his astonishing gift for driving the global discussion. This alone is a useful demonstration. If he has a good game plan to go with it, it could pay off for America." [1]
If Biden's goal was to destroy the West's ability to wage war against countries like Iran, then Biden has achieved that goal. War requires a strong industrial base. After Biden destroyed Germany's industrial base with high energy prices following sanctions and the bombing of gas pipelines, the West no longer has such a base.
1. Trump Is a Realist on Greenland. Jenkins, Holman W; Jr. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 18 Jan 2025: A17.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą