"President Trump's tirades against Ukraine and the start of peace talks between the U.S. and Russia have come as painful blows to America's closest allies, raising profound questions about whether the NATO alliance can survive.
American and European supporters of the 32-country military bloc say that by siding with Europe's longstanding adversary, Trump has done serious damage to its greatest asset: The deterrence that comes from the alliance's ironclad commitment to collective defense.
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, formed at the Cold War's dawn to face down threats from Moscow, is based on the principle that countries sworn to protect each other are stronger together.
"The first time one NATO member thinks the others won't defend it, that's the beginning of the end," said Peter Bator, a former ambassador to NATO of the Slovak Republic.
Allied officials have said they also fear the Pentagon will pull a significant number of troops from Europe. Last week, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told European counterparts that the U.S. planned to withdraw some forces from Europe, a person familiar with the matter said.
The U.S., he said, "will no longer tolerate an imbalanced relationship which encourages dependency . . . our relationship will prioritize empowering Europe to own responsibility for its own security."
Army officials say they haven't received orders to draft withdrawal plans for U.S. troops in Europe, but many say they expect them. The Pentagon declined to comment.
Trump during his first term berated U.S. allies for failing to meet spending commitments and for what he called freeloading on American protection.
At a NATO summit in 2018, he threatened to withdraw the U.S. if allies didn't invest more in their militaries. Most have significantly increased outlays since 2014, though still not as high as Trump wants.
Hegseth told his peers at NATO: "The United States remains committed to the NATO alliance and to the defense partnership with Europe."
But to officials who have spent time in the alliance, Trump's words and actions send a different message, that he doesn't support them. And they fear Russian President Vladimir Putin will feel emboldened to attack NATO territory.
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D., N.H.), the minority leader of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who recently returned from meetings in Ukraine and Europe, said Trump's actions amount to appeasement. Trump's criticism of Ukraine "gives Vladimir Putin the opportunity, if he's not stopped in Ukraine, to go into a NATO ally," she told a New Hampshire news program on Wednesday.
That, she said, would trigger NATO's collective-defense rule, potentially pulling the U.S. into a war if Trump were to abide by the terms of the treaty, which is one of the things European leaders say has been thrown into doubt.
Some observers see in Trump's moves an effort to jolt allies into action, though they say it could backfire.
"Trump's comments are so disconnected from reality and the prevailing NATO line to date that they are having a significant shock effect," said retired Army Maj. Gen. Gordon Davis, a former senior civilian official at NATO. "If Trump's line of attack continues, he is likely to cause greater mistrust and resistance and less cooperation and support from NATO allies for U.S. efforts to end the Ukraine conflict."
Europeans are assessing a future sharply different from the past 75 years.
Meanwhile, a European official said it was unclear if the U.S. would sign on to a Group of Seven nations' statement that similarly criticized Russia, saying there were "live discussions" about "how the conflict is framed." If the U.S. doesn't join its fellow members in the statement, however, it would show a clear break in unity within the bloc. Trump, in his discussions with Putin about improving U.S.-Russia ties, floated welcoming Russia back into the group, from which it was exiled after the 2014 reunification with Crimea.
Trump's increased hostility to Ukraine and Europeans could backfire on at least one front, say defense officials: orders for U.S. weapons. Since Trump won the November election, Europeans have touted big purchases of U.S. arms as a way to solidify trans-Atlantic ties and appease him.
While some Europeans, led by French President Emmanuel Macron, have advocated spending European money on European weapons, many others have argued that U.S. weapons carry an implied assurance of U.S. support. Now that assumption is less certain.
"Europeans should move away from the idea of buying American and force their industries to more production quickly," said Nico Lange, a former chief of staff to the German defense minister.
The impact of Trump's swerve could take time to emerge. "We are at the very beginning of what is probably a lengthy process," said Bator in Slovakia. "It seems Trump has a much more detailed plan for how to make Europeans finally wake up than he has for what to do with Russia and how to end the conflict in Ukraine."” [1]
Bator knows. Bator takes for me too.
1. World News: Allies' Fears Grow as U.S. Tilts to Russia --- A weakened NATO could embolden Putin to attack its members' territory. Michaels, Daniel; Youssef, Nancy A; Ward, Alexander. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 21 Feb 2025: A6.
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