The prospect of military support from Russia and China to Venezuela influences Donald Trump's (the current U.S. President) military plans by potentially leading to an escalation of U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, aimed at countering the influence of these adversarial nations in the Western Hemisphere.
Key impacts on U.S. military plans:
Increased U.S. Military Presence: In response to the situation, the U.S. has significantly expanded its naval presence in the Caribbean, deploying numerous warships, an aircraft carrier, and thousands of troops. This is viewed as Washington's largest military deployment in Latin America since the Gulf War.
Countering Adversary Influence: The Trump administration views Venezuela as an ally of U.S. adversaries (Russia, China, and Iran) in a region historically dominated by the United States. The goal is to undermine the credibility of these nations' global military alliances and reduce their influence in the region.
Potential for Targeted Strikes: U.S. officials have identified Venezuelan military installations allegedly tied to drug trafficking networks as potential bombing targets. The U.S. is reportedly prepared to launch targeted strikes on these bases, though President Trump has sent mixed messages on whether a full military ouster is planned or if the pressure campaign is a bluff.
Heightened Tensions: The situation has increased diplomatic and military tensions. Russia has warned the U.S. over its military buildup, while Venezuela has requested specific military aid from Russia and China, such as defensive radars, aircraft repairs, and possibly missiles, to strengthen its defenses against potential U.S. aggression.
Strategic Calculations: The involvement of Russia and China complicates any potential U.S. military action, as Venezuela possesses an array of Russian weapons, including advanced surface-to-air missile systems, which could pose a significant threat to U.S. air operations.
In essence, the military support from Russia and China is a key factor in the current U.S. administration's strategic calculations, contributing to a more aggressive U.S. military posture and raising the stakes of any potential conflict. This could partially explain Trump's hesitation:
“WASHINGTON -- President Trump has recently expressed reservations to top aides about launching military action to oust Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, fearing that strikes might not compel the autocrat to step down, according to U.S. officials familiar with the deliberations.
The debate underscores that the administration's Venezuela strategy remains in flux, despite a huge buildup of military forces in the region and public threats by Trump to launch attacks.
What began as a counternarcotics campaign with airstrikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels has morphed into the most muscular U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean in decades -- one now squarely aimed at pressuring, and potentially ousting, Maduro.
But even basic questions, such as whether the goal is to remove Maduro or compel him into concessions, remain undecided, the officials said.
Trump continues to query aides about military options, the officials noted, leading some to suggest the president may eventually order an attack.
For now, officials say Trump is content with slowly building up U.S. forces in the region and continuing to strike boats allegedly smuggling drugs in the Caribbean and Pacific. The latest such attack occurred Tuesday when the U.S. military destroyed a vessel in the Eastern Pacific, killing two alleged drug traffickers.
"We're blowing them up, linked to the Maduro regime in Venezuela and others," Trump said during a Wednesday speech in Miami.
There is no timeline for a decision on whether to step up the campaign, officials said. Trump remains wary about getting directly involved in Venezuela after a first-term attempt to oust Maduro by supporting his opposition failed, former officials involved in that effort said.
"The president has said he would continue to strike narcoterrorists trafficking illicit narcotics -- anything else is speculation and should be treated as such," said Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary.
Trump has been presented with three broad options to ramp up pressure on Maduro, the officials said.
They include ramping up economic pressure on Venezuela with sanctions and increased tariffs on countries that buy its oil; supporting Venezuela's opposition while adding more U.S. military assets in the region to raise pressure on Maduro; and a campaign of airstrikes or covert operations aimed at government and military facilities and personnel. The options were previously reported by the New York Times.
The Justice Department is working on a legal justification allowing Trump to target the Venezuelan leader as part of a military operation, the officials added. Justice Department officials didn't respond to a request for comment.
The Trump administration has branded Maduro a "narco-terrorist," accusing him of heading a drug trafficking network that is conspiring to "flood the United States with cocaine."
The steps taken already by the U.S. to convince him that he can't remain in power could prompt some members of the country's security elite to turn on Maduro and oust him first, U.S. officials say.
The administration has been in touch with the Venezuelan opposition, current and former officials said.” [1]
1. U.S. News: Trump Expresses Reservations Over Military Action in Venezuela. Ward, Alexander; Gramer, Robbie; Seligman, Lara. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 06 Nov 2025: A3.
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