“President Donald Trump’s proposed November 27 deadline forUkraine to sign a US-backed peace plan is not final and could be extended by aweek, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says.”
The European Union is buying American arms industry products and handing them over to Zelensky’s team. Why do the Americans want to quickly, within weeks, stop this process?
Because the Chinese are no longer selling the Americans rare earths, and most importantly, magnets, which are needed for weapons production. The reserves are running out, you can’t take any risks. You can’t advertise it either, because Israel’s enemies can use it against Israel, the Chinese against Taiwan, Venezuela against the US, etc.
US constraints to meet EU demands in Ukraine: supply chain vulnerabilities
This idea highlights a perceived tension in US foreign policy: why the United States, under President Donald Trump, is aggressively pushing for a quick peace deal in Ukraine – perhaps by the end of November 2025 – despite the continued support of the European Union (EU) in providing military assistance to Kiev. This pressure appears to conflict with EU demands for continued US support for Ukraine’s defense efforts against Russia. The main reason, it is argued, is the critical shortage of rare earth elements (REEs) and permanent magnets, exacerbated by Chinese export restrictions. These materials are essential for US weapons production, and dwindling stocks are forcing a strategic shift to save resources for more important regions such as the Indo-Pacific
EU demands and US actions in Ukraine
The EU has been a strong partner in arming Zelensky, but is increasingly relying on US-made weapons due to advanced capabilities (such as Patriot air defense systems and precision-guided munitions). In 2025, the EU and NATO allies allocated billions of dollars for the acquisition and transfer of US weapons to Ukraine, effectively subsidizing the US defense industry and circumventing restrictions on direct US aid imposed by Trump.
Key EU commitments:
In July 2025, NATO allies, including Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands, Finland, the UK and Canada, agreed on a framework for US arms purchases for Zelensky. This includes Patriot missiles, Tomahawk cruise missiles and JASSM-ER air-launched missiles.
By August 2025, the four Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Norway, the Netherlands) have jointly committed to spending more than $1 billion on US-made munitions, including Patriot interceptors.
The EU’s SAFE program (adopted in May 2025) provides €150 billion in soft loans to member states for arms purchases, with a focus on US suppliers, to fill gaps in Zelensky’s arsenal.
Since September 2025, Europe has become Ukraine’s main military donor, overtaking the US in total annual aid (€40.6 billion pledged through NATO channels).
These purchases are in line with EU demands for continued support for Zelensky, with an emphasis on reconstruction, NATO integration and territorial integrity of his territory. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has stressed that any peace plan must respect Ukraine’s “freedom to choose its own destiny”, including membership in the EU and NATO.
The US is calling for a swift peace deal:
In early November 2025, Trump proposed a 28-point US-backed peace plan that includes a ceasefire on current front lines, territorial concessions (such as recognition of Crimea and Donbas), Ukrainian commitments to neutrality (in the wake of earlier NATO withdrawal), and early elections. US senators and Ukrainian officials have criticized this as a “Russian wish list”.
The Ukraine deal was set for a Thanksgiving Day deadline (November 27, 2025), but on November 23, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it could be extended by a week. On November 23 The Geneva talks produced a “renewed and improved” framework that made progress on NATO’s role, but left unresolved issues such as territorial swaps.
Trump’s argument: to end the “endless war” in order to refocus on China and reduce the US fiscal burden. But this runs counter to EU calls for a tougher and more punitive stance on Russia.
The US cannot fully meet these EU demands without risking the sustainability of its own military industry, as continuing arms supplies to Zelensky would accelerate the depletion of scarce resources.
2. Rare Earth and Magnet Crisis: China’s Influence
China controls ~90% of the world’s rare earth metal recycling and ~92% of the production of neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets—essential for F-35 fighters, Virginia-class submarines, Tomahawk missiles, drones, radars, and smart bombs. Rare earth metals such as neodymium, dysprosium, samarium, and terbium enable the production of high-performance magnets that withstand extreme conditions in modern weapons.
China’s recent restrictions on rare earth metals for Western defense industries include requiring export licenses for specific materials and magnets, denying licenses to companies affiliated with foreign militaries, and assessing advanced technologies on a case-by-case basis.
These rules are a strategic move to gain leverage in trade negotiations, disrupt Western defense supply chains, and restrict the flow of critical materials used in advanced weapons, which could disrupt the production of systems such as the F-35 fighter jet and submarines.
Key Restrictions and Their Impact
Export License Requirements: Foreign companies must obtain a license from the Chinese government to export magnets made from rare earth elements originating in China or products made using rare earth mining, processing, and manufacturing technologies.
Denial of licenses: Companies affiliated with foreign militaries are denied export licenses, blocking shipments to defense contractors.
Case-by-case: Highly advanced technologies are subject to rigorous case-by-case reviews, a process that has already caused significant delays due to bureaucratic hurdles.
“Approved end-user” system: The New York Post notes that China is developing an “approved end-user” system that would make it easier for civilian companies to obtain shipments while excluding military contractors.
Impact on supply chains: These measures disrupt the Western defense industrial base, which relies heavily on Chinese rare-earth magnets used in modern military systems.
Affected materials: The restrictions include several key rare-earth elements, such as samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
Broader implications
Strategic leverage: Restrictions are a powerful negotiating tactic in trade disputes with Western countries.
Economic pressure: By restricting exports, China can exert economic pressure and create a more favorable trading environment for itself.
National security concerns: Restrictions pose national security concerns in the West, as many defense systems cannot function without these materials.
Komentarų nėra:
Rašyti komentarą