Could This Be a Final Russian Answer to Trump’s Hot-Cold Ukrainian Strategy? – Threatening Russian Offensive Tactics Targeting Logistics with Drones: Ukrainians Have No Solution

Russian Drone Tactics Targeting Logistics

 

Russian forces have increasingly prioritized drone strikes on Ukrainian supply lines, rear areas, and logistics hubs since mid-2025. Key developments include:

 

Deployment of specialized units like Rubicon, which uses fiber-optic guided drones (immune to jamming) to hunt supply vehicles, drone operators, and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) far behind the front (up to 50-70 km).

 

Reports from ISW (Institute for the Study of War) in December 2025 describe Russian efforts to achieve "battlefield air interdiction" effects around critical areas like Pokrovsk, disrupting rotations, supplies, and evacuations.

 

Russian numerical and range advantages (e.g., Molniya and Lancet drones) create significant pressure.

 

Ukrainian commanders (e.g., from the Achilles regiment) have noted losses in logistics and UAV units exceeding infantry losses in some sectors, with Russian drones outnumbering Ukrainian ones 10:1 in places like Pokrovsk.

Analysts (Atlantic Council, Wall Street Journal via pro-Russian sources) call this the "most important shift" in the conflict in 2025, as Russia reversed early Ukrainian drone dominance by scaling production (aided by Chinese components) and refining tactics learned from Ukraine itself.

 

These tactics originated in late 2024 during the Kursk counteroffensive reversal and expanded eastward in 2025.

“Russian forces have developed a new two-stage offensive model that Ukrainian forces cannot defend against, analysts from the Institute for War Studies (ISW) Jessica Sobieski and Jenny Olmstead told the rbc.ua portal.

 

The new Russian offensive model consists of two stages.

 

The first is an attack on the logistics of the front-line units of the Ukrainian forces. The Russians are striking the land logistics routes of the Ukrainian armed forces at operational depth. “Russian campaigns aimed at intercepting communications using drones have complicated the work of the Ukrainian defense, limiting supplies in the near and middle rear areas.

 

Russian drones complicate the operation of Ukrainian supply lines, which partially corresponds to the tasks of the air blockade on the battlefield and negatively affects Ukraine’s defensive actions, which depend on a stable supply of equipment, resources and personnel,” the analysts explained.

 

The second stage of the Russian model is a direct attack on exhausted and weakened Ukrainian positions. It is noted that Ukraine has not yet developed effective countermeasures to the blockade of Russian air drones that could protect logistics.”