“While the
world focuses on oil and gas, another raw material may determine our future.
Today, humanity faces an unprecedented shortage of it. Poland has enough of it.
“S&P
Global analysts warn that the world faces a serious copper shortage due to the
race for artificial intelligence and increasing defense spending. Demand for
this metal is rising at a time when supply from mines is struggling with
structural limitations.
Copper is
record-breakingly expensive
The price of
copper has risen to a record level, exceeding $13,000 per ton, due to a series
of mine closures and the accumulation of metal stocks in the US in anticipation
of potential tariffs from the Donald Trump administration. US copper supplies
have already pushed prices above levels consistent with traditional demand, and
new applications of this metal could lead to a deepening shortage in the market
in the long term, Bloomberg reports.
S&P
Global forecasts that global demand for copper will increase by half to 42
million tons within 15 years. Although traditional sources such as
construction, household appliances, transport, and power generation still
account for most of the demand for copper, the largest increase is seen in
applications related to the energy transition. This includes electric vehicles,
renewable energy, batteries, and the expansion of power grids and energy
storage.
In addition,
there are new, rapidly growing sources of demand.” Copper consumption in data
centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure is expected to increase
sharply, as global installed data center capacity is projected to nearly
quadruple by 2040. Therefore, demand for
copper from these applications could increase approximately threefold by 2040,
increasing total consumption by 4 million tons.
AI and
robots need a lot of copper
S&P
analysts have also identified another potential source of growing demand for
copper: humanoid robots. Although this technology is in its early stages of
development, according to the study, one billion humanoid robots operating by
2040 will require approximately 1.6 million tons of copper annually, or about 6
percent of current consumption.
Meanwhile,
global copper production will peak at 33 million tons in 2030, as ore quality
in existing mines deteriorates and new projects face obstacles in obtaining
permits, financing, and construction. The study shows that even with a sharp
increase in copper processing (expected to more than double to 10 million tons
during this period), the shortage will amount to 10 million tons.
The supply
problem is exacerbated by long project lead times, rising costs, and a highly
concentrated supply chain, making the market increasingly vulnerable to
disruptions as demand increases – according to S&P.
2026 began
with a significant increase in the prices of base metals, including copper.
Other raw materials important for the development of new technologies also
became more expensive: on January 2nd, aluminum prices exceeded $3,000 per ton for
the first time in over three years. The increase in metal prices was caused by
anticipated supply shortages and projected demand. On January 7, iron ore
prices reached their highest level since February 2025.
Raw
materials
How much
copper does Poland have?
Globally, Chile
has the most copper (209 million tons), followed by Australia, Peru, Mexico,
and Poland. According to the Polish Geological Institute, at the end of 2024,
deposits located in two regions of Poland contained 3.5 billion tons of copper
ore and 56.72 million tons of copper. Poland is home to the largest copper ore
mine in Europe – Rudna. Estimated prospective copper resources in Poland amount
to 165 million tons, of which 98 million tons can be profitably extracted using
current technologies. Our country could produce over 1 million tons of copper
annually, provided significant investments are made in new mines. Currently, we
produce approximately 400,000 tons of copper per year.”
Russia
produces roughly 900,000 to 930,000 metric tons of copper per year, with recent
data from 2023 and 2024 indicating figures around 910,000 to 930,000 tonnes, a
consistent output supported by major producers like Norilsk Nickel and the
emerging Udokan mine, though some estimates show slight increases for 2024 to
near 965,000 tonnes.
Key
Producers & Projects:
Norilsk Nickel (Nornickel): A major
contributor to Russia's copper output.
Udokan Copper: This large Siberian mine
began production in 2023, with plans to significantly increase its annual
output to 400,000-450,000 tonnes by full operation.
Factors
Influencing Output:
Russia holds vast copper reserves,
particularly in Siberia and the Urals.
New projects, like Udokan, are boosting
national production.
Russia is intop ten copper producers. Poland isn’t.
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