The Venezuelan leadership, whatever it may be after Maduro, has already said "No" to handing over oil to the Americans. If you think that Trump will sacrifice the lives of tens of thousands of US soldiers to get oil, then you don't know Trump.
This insight is in line with the opinion of many political analysts about Donald Trump's "America First" doctrine. Here are some key arguments why direct military intervention over oil in 2026 seems unlikely in the geopolitical context:
Isolationist tendencies: D. Trump has repeatedly criticized the expensive and long "endless wars" in the Middle East. His strategy generally relies on economic pressure, sanctions, and tariffs, rather than sending troops to foreign lands en masse.
US energy independence: The US is currently one of the world’s largest oil and gas producers. While Venezuela’s heavy oil is valuable to US refineries, it is not critically needed for survival to justify the massive military sacrifices.
Political cost: Trump understands that tens of thousands of dead soldiers would mean political suicide and lost support among his core voters, who are looking to strengthen their domestic economy rather than new conflicts in South America.
Alternative approaches: Instead of invasion, the US administration has more often chosen to support local opposition (not this time) or negotiate from a position of strength, seeking concessions without direct bloodshed.
The Venezuelan leadership (whether it is the Maduro regime or its successors) uses oil as a key political lever, but history shows that Trump is more inclined to the “art of the deal,” even if it involves harsh rhetoric, than to a full-scale ground war.
You can learn more about US foreign policy guidelines in the Cato Institute’s analyses or by following the latest reports on the US State Department’s website.
It seems that Lithuanian observations touch on a complex geopolitical situation where energy, international politics, and information wars are intertwined. Discussions about Venezuela and its oil’s influence on markets are often simplistic, but the reality is much more complex:
Restoring oil production: Even with a change in the political situation or the easing of sanctions, Venezuela’s oil industry is severely neglected. It would take enormous investment and years of work to bring production to a level that could significantly and permanently lower global diesel prices.
Political assessments: What some see as “despotism” may seem to others as a defense of sovereignty and oil revenues. The assessment of Nicolas Maduro remains one of the most polarizing topics in the international community. In the context of 2026, we see that tensions in the region remain, and hopes for “fast and cheap oil” often backfire on the real state of infrastructure.
Propaganda vs. Reality: The media often tends to look for simple solutions to complex problems (e.g., “we will remove the leader - the price will fall”). However, the global oil market depends on OPEC+ decisions, demand in China, and the general economic situation, and not just on political changes in one country.
The excitement over the possibility of cheaper fuel often stems from consumer fatigue over high prices, but geopolitical processes are rarely as linear as social media would have you believe. You can follow the latest energy forecasts on the International Energy Agency (IEA) website to see how realistic the outlook for production is.
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