Why F. Merz is participating in the coalition of the willing for Ukraine, unacceptable to the Russians: Because the situation in some sectors of the German economy is “very critical”

 

If Trump’s deal in Ukraine works, the Russians will not allow NATO forces to enter Ukraine. If the deal does not work, the coalition of the willing is afraid to enter Ukraine. But the spectacle is trying to divert attention from the serious domestic problems of Germany, France and Britain.

 

Particularly serious problems in Germany:

 

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned the ruling coalition’s legislators in a letter dated January 6, 2026, that the situation in some sectors of the country’s economy is “very critical”.

 

Key highlights from the Chancellor’s address:

 

Sectors and companies: The critical situation is recorded not only in industrial giants, but also in medium and small companies. The automotive sector, which is suffering from declining sales in China and other global challenges, is particularly highlighted.

 

Key issues: Merz said Germany’s competitiveness is being undermined by high labor and energy costs, bureaucratic obstacles and a high tax burden. He admitted that previous measures had not been enough to stabilize the situation.

 

Priorities for 2026: The Chancellor stressed that the government must focus on “radical improvements” in 2026 to revive growth and increase productivity.

 

Context: The warnings come after two years of economic recession (2023-2024), with forecasts for 2025 remaining minimal (around 0.1%), and 2026 being seen as a crucial year for a breakthrough.

 

The Chancellor is also planning a visit to India in mid-January (January 12-13) to strengthen economic cooperation and explore new opportunities for German businesses abroad.

 

Friedrich Merz is taking a hard line in support of Ukraine for several geopolitical and domestic policy reasons, which are related to several economic and strategic aspects:

 

1. Domestic policy “spectacle” and diversion

 

The German economy faces serious challenges in 2025-2026: industrial decline, high energy prices and stagnant car production.

 

Political polarization: Merz seeks to present himself as a decisive leader, in contrast to the “indecisive” Olaf Scholz. Tough rhetoric towards Russia helps to mobilize the conservative wing of the voters and distance himself from the far right (AfD) and the far left (BSW), who demand concessions to Moscow.

 

Transfer of responsibility: By emphasizing the external threat, it is easier to present some of the economic problems as the “price of defending Western values”, and not only as the result of domestic governance errors.

 

2. Economic interests and the “coalition of the willing”

 

Although the situation in German industry is “critical”, Merz and some of the business elite believe that:

 

Long-term stability: Only a complete stop to Russia will ensure a stable investment environment in Western Europe in the long term.

 

Defense industry: Germany’s military-industrial complex (e.g. Rheinmetall) is experiencing its biggest boom, which is partially offsetting the decline in other sectors.

 

Reconstruction of Ukraine: Germany expects a leading role in the reconstruction of Ukraine, which would be a huge order for Germany’s engineering and construction sectors.

 

3. The Trump factor and fear of Europe

 

The observation about Trump’s possible deal is crucial:

 

Prevention: The “coalition of the willing” (France, Britain, Poland, possibly led by Merz, Germany) is trying to create “facts on the ground” before Trump’s possible intervention. They fear that Trump will force Ukraine to accept pro-Russian neutrality.

 

Security guarantees: If Russia does not allow NATO forces to enter officially, this coalition may try to act as a “peacekeeping mission” outside NATO to prevent Russia from completely absorbing Ukraine after a possible ceasefire.

 

4. Is this just a show?

 

Many analysts doubt whether France, Britain and Germany really have the resources (both financial and military) to become a real counterweight to Russia without US support. Therefore, the rhetoric of Merz and other leaders is often seen as:

 

A bargaining position before future discussions with the Trump administration.

 

An attempt to stabilize the EU internally, showing that Western Europe is not completely powerless.

 

In summary, Merz’s involvement in this process is an attempt to reconcile Germany’s security ambitions with the need to restore leadership in difficult economic times, even if the risk of being drawn into a direct conflict with nuclear Russia remains high.