Syria's Sharaa Calls Washington's Bluff --- Swift, unexpected offensive fractures U.S.-backed militia and gains territory

 

 

“With a swift offensive against a Kurdish-led militia last weekend, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa proved himself once again to be a bold military tactician and a gambler willing to risk his relationship with the U.S. to achieve his aims.

 

He ordered the offensive despite threats from Washington that it would reimpose sanctions and the U.S. military's fears that it could endanger soldiers in the region and lead to the escape of thousands of Islamic State prisoners.

 

In the end, Sharaa's gambit paid off. His lieutenants persuaded Arab factions within the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces to switch sides to the government, unraveling the Kurdish-led militia in days as it pulled back from a swath of northeast Syria. That has far-reaching consequences for Syria and for the Pentagon's Middle East footprint. Senior U.S. military officials are now discussing a wider military exit after more than a decade in Syria.

 

Once an insurgent fighter in Iraq who was captured by U.S. forces, Sharaa has forged a surprising relationship with the Trump administration, which backed him to avoid a power vacuum after the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad in 2024. His latest moves haven't cost him that support, but some U.S. lawmakers and military officials are wary of the Syrian leader's militant past.

 

The takeover of most of northeastern Syria is Sharaa's most important strategic victory since he led the rebel offensive against Assad's rule in 2024. That attack toppled the regime in 11 days, ending 13 years of war that killed half a million people and left cities in ruins.

 

The latest operation broke an impasse after more than a year of talks between the SDF and the new Damascus government. The militia's leader, Mazloum Abdi, agreed last year to a merger with the new Syrian army. But in U.S.-brokered talks he demanded continued autonomy and preservation of its military units, according to Western diplomats and analysts briefed on the negotiations.

 

Sharaa's rapid military moves settled most of the issues on the ground, much as he had before.

 

"People misjudged the capacity of this guy. They thought the war against the SDF would take weeks, not hours or days," said Bassam Barabandi, a Syrian diplomat. "What happened is they just collapsed. They didn't fight."

 

During more than a decade of fighting in Syria, Sharaa outmaneuvered dozens of other rebel leaders and opponents including more moderate anti-Assad militias who for a time received assistance from the Central Intelligence Agency. He built his influence until he became the top leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, Syria's largest rebel group.

 

"He takes a lot of risk, and sometimes it backfires," said Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group who has interviewed Sharaa several times.

 

After cutting ties with al Qaeda in 2016 and fighting against Islamic State and other rival groups, Sharaa spent years in hiding in northwest Syria's Idlib province, waiting for a chance to strike the regime. He did so when Russia was busy in the Ukraine and Iran was weakened by Israel's military strikes, leaving the regime vulnerable.

 

This time Sharaa again assessed that his opponent was weak. The SDF had long shown fissures among the Kurdish, Arab and other factions that made up its force. Arab Syrian residents of major cities under the militia's control leaned politically toward the new government in Damascus.

 

Yet, the victory in the northeast owed more to political moves than military prowess.

 

Several Sharaa's comrades, including his intelligence chief and his foreign minister, are from eastern Syria, and he leveraged those connections to areas long controlled by the SDF. Last year he put a key official, Jihad Issa Al-Sheikh, known by his nom de guerre Abu Ahmed Zakour, in charge of liaison with Arab tribes in the area.

 

In a single weekend the SDF fractured. The tribes helped the government take control of strategic targets. A separate offensive by government forces seized control of a major dam on the Euphrates River.

 

"They used tribes to create the facts on the ground without initially sending the military in, provoking the collapse of the SDF in Raqqa and Deir Ezzour," said Alexander McKeever, an independent analyst based in Damascus. "The withdrawal was so rapid, especially in Deir Ezzour, it seemed catastrophic for the SDF."

 

Sharaa also exploited an opening with the Trump administration, which had brought him to the White House in November and had long wanted an exit plan for the dwindling number of U.S. troops who remain in Syria after more than a decade.” [1]

 

1. World News: Syria's Sharaa Calls Washington's Bluff --- Swift, unexpected offensive fractures U.S.-backed militia and gains territory. Malsin, Jared; Seligman, Lara.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 24 Jan 2026: A8.