Tehran Regime Gives No Indication of Yielding amid War's Heavy Toll --- Leadership's ability to rule and fight tests U.S.-Israel goal of bringing it down

 

 

Iranians survived Western organized installment of Shah. So they are allergic to Western interventions and well prepared. The Western economy is rolling into recession, Trump is rolling into electoral defeat in November as a result. The 2026 war scenario poses a risk of energy price shocks that could negatively affect the U.S. economy and, consequently, President Trump's electoral standing.

 

The assertion that many Iranians possess a deep-seated allergy to Western intervention, driven by the historical experience of the 1953 CIA/MI6-backed coup that reinstalled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, is a well-documented perspective in Iranian history and political thought.

 

Here is an overview of the factors supporting this view:

 

    1953 Coup Legacy: The joint US-British operation (Operation Ajax) to overthrow the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh after he nationalized the oil industry solidified a long-standing perception of the West—particularly the US and UK—as imperialist forces trying to control Iranian resources.

 

    The "Puppet" Shah: The reinstalled Shah was widely viewed by many Iranians as a Western puppet, a perception that fueled deep resentment and contributed to his eventual overthrow in 1979.

 

    "Great Satan" Rhetoric: The 1953 coup served as a foundational justification for Ayatollah Khomeini's branding of the US as the "Great Satan," allowing the new regime to link anti-Americanism with nationalist, anti-imperialist, and religious sentiment.

    Anti-Western Sentiment: This history has made many Iranians skeptical of foreign involvement, including within the diaspora, with many believing that Western interventions—rather than fostering democracy—often lead to instability, as witnessed in other regional conflicts.

 

Nuance in Perspective

While this anti-interventionist sentiment is strong, it is not universally held by all Iranians, particularly regarding current dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic:

 

    Internal Oppression: Many Iranians feel "trapped between two collapsing structures"—a dysfunctional, repressive internal government and external actors (the West) whose interventions often, in their view, lead to chaos.

    Desire for Change: Some Iranians have historically looked to the West for support against the ruling regime, leading to complex, mixed views on foreign influence.

    The Diaspora: While many in the diaspora oppose the current regime, there is a strong, persistent debate within it about the role of Western intervention, with many believing foreign interference does more harm than good.

 

In summary, the memory of 1953 has made a significant portion of the population highly suspicious of Western motives, viewing them as self-interested rather than democratic, which in turn feeds into a "well-prepared," stance against foreign interference.

 

 

 

“After 10 days of punishing airstrikes by the U.S. and Israel, Iran's leadership is battered but showing signs it is still in control and able to keep fighting.

 

Senior Iranian political figures, while hunted from the air and limiting their appearances in public, are regularly posting messages that reflect recent developments and project unity and defiance. Iran's military continues to hit high-value targets across a wide front encompassing Arab Gulf countries, Israel and beyond, though it is firing fewer missiles than in the first days of the war.

 

On the streets of Iranian cities, security forces maintain a heavy presence, and there has been no significant recurrence of the sorts of protests that shook the regime in January.

 

The inner workings of Iran's leadership are opaque, and it is hard to get a solid read on its status, particularly when the U.S. and Israel aren't putting boots on the ground. But observable evidence of their effectiveness makes clear the U.S. and Israel's hopes for a quick regime collapse aren't yet panning out.

 

The degree of resilience shown by the country's leadership raises the question of how long the U.S. and Israel can sustain their war from above and at what cost if their enemy doesn't fold.

 

One reason Iran's leaders have been able to withstand the overwhelming military pressure is because they had been planning for a new war since they suffered heavy losses during the 12-day conflict with Israel and the U.S. in June.

 

"They were prepared," said Mohsen Sazegara, a founder of Iran's paramilitary Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps now living in exile in the U.S. "Even if their military capacity and their buildings are being destroyed, they believe that airstrikes alone can't destroy the regime."

 

There are no signs of serious cracks or institutional breakdown, a person briefed on the military campaign and a foreign diplomat responsible for Iran said. The regime's goal appears to be to hang on as the consequences of the war accumulate and put pressure on President Trump to move on, the diplomat said.

 

Iran's leaders quickly expanded the war into a regional conflict, drawing in Gulf states whose defenses are less robust than Israel's.

 

The fighting is disrupting global trade and travel and has pushed oil prices above $100 a barrel for several hours on Monday, raising the cost of keeping the war going.

 

Iran has fired an average of 45 missiles toward its Persian Gulf neighbors and Israel over the past three days, down from 420 on the second day of the war, according to data from the Washington-based Jewish Institute for National Security of America, or Jinsa. But the pace has stabilized, and Iran is also firing hundreds of drones at targets including oil facilities, airports and embassies.

 

The intensity and pattern of the Iranian strikes indicate there is a clear strategy and coordination behind the attacks, some analysts and Arab officials said.

 

Iranian forces have consistently targeted U.S. diplomatic and military sites, as well as energy and transport infrastructure.

 

They have also repeatedly attacked armed Iranian Kurdish groups based in Iraq and in border areas, to dissuade them from joining the war with ground forces.

 

In Oman, Iranian forces went after targets at ports and other facilities that were involved in providing fuel supplies to the U.S. military. Drones intercepted by the Omani air force last Wednesday were headed toward a refinery near Muscat where a contractor supplies shipping fuel to the U.S. military, an Arab official said.

 

The official's assessment is that Iran's chain of command is still functioning.

 

The joint U.S.-Israeli war strategy is based on a core assumption: that by decapitating Iran's political and military leadership, and destroying the physical infrastructure that surrounds them, the regime will be forced into collapse or at least surrender.

 

U.S. officials have pointed to the elimination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders as a key measure of the war's success.

 

But Iran's state apparatus was built to outlive individual leaders because of layered and overlapping centers of political and military power.

 

The clearest sign of confidence in the regime's survival was the appointment of the late Khamenei's hard-line son -- Mojtaba Khamenei -- as the Islamic Republic's new supreme leader.

 

Iran's political and religious establishments have rallied around the new ruler, with officials publicly pledging their allegiance.

 

Iran's national-security leader, Ali Larijani, said over the weekend that Iran would continue to pursue a broad-front war.

 

"Countries in the region must either prevent the United States from using their territory against Iran themselves, or we will do it," Larijani said in a televised interview from an undisclosed location.

 

Many Iranians publicly celebrated the killing of Ali Khamenei. But there is little evidence so far that Iranians are ready to rise up to topple their government.

 

The strikes haven't stopped security forces from going on patrol and setting up checkpoints in Tehran and elsewhere in the country.

 

In the city of Isfahan, a large number of the Basij militants have been roaming the streets on motorcycles, brandishing guns and flags of the Islamic Republic, one resident said.

 

The Iranian government has sought to prevent another popular uprising by imposing a near-total communication blackout and threatening would-be protesters.

 

Street protests "will be considered an example of direct cooperation with the enemy," the intelligence branch of the Revolutionary Guard said in a text message sent to millions of Iranian mobile-phone users on Sunday.

 

A Revolutionary Guard commander, Salar Abnoush, warned parents last week not to let their children take to the streets: "If they show sympathy for the enemy, there is a shoot-to-kill order."

 

Iran's leaders, however, will face heavy pressure as they try to hold on.

 

Israeli and U.S. forces have worked on creating the conditions for a popular revolt by hitting targets linked to the regime's repressive apparatus. Iran's leadership is also widely despised internally after the deadly crackdown this year that weakened whatever support it had.

 

"Resilience should not be mistaken for strength," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran project at the International Crisis Group. "The regime looks more brittle than broken, relying less on legitimacy than on repression, institutional discipline, and a shared sense among elites that their survival is now existential."” [1]

 

1. Tehran Regime Gives No Indication Of Yielding Amid War's Heavy Toll --- Leadership's ability to rule and fight tests U.S.-Israel goal of bringing it down. Stancati, Margherita; Faucon, Benoit.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Mar 2026: A1.