The Ukraine Crisis: Germany Considers Natural-Gas Rationing

 

"BERLIN -- The German government moved closer to rationing natural gas on Thursday after Russia cut deliveries to the country last week in an escalation of the economic war triggered by sanctions on Russia.

Berlin triggered the second step of its three-step plan to deal with gas shortages after Kremlin-controlled energy giant Gazprom, the country's biggest gas exporter, throttled delivery via the Nord Stream pipeline by around 60% last week. Germany's gas reserves are at 58% capacity, and the government now expects a gas shortage by December if supplies don't pick up, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said.

The second step, dubbed the "alarm level," is a prerequisite for the government to enforce some of the gas-saving measures it announced over the weekend, including substituting coal to gas for power generation and creating financial incentives for companies that consume less gas.

Rationing, which would come in the third step, would focus on industry and could severely affect companies that use gas as fuel or as a raw material for production, likely pushing Europe's biggest economy into recession, economists and company executives have warned.

Germany grew heavily dependent on Russian gas flowing through pipelines over decades and has struggled to diversify supplies. It is now scrambling to build new infrastructure to switch to liquefied natural gas delivered by ships. That transition is costly and takes time, making a temporary shortage this winter increasingly likely.

Under German law, strategic gas reserves must be 80% full by October and 90% by November -- a scenario unlikely to be met. When the government triggers the third level of the plan, known as the "emergency phase," the country's energy regulator can begin to ration gas.

"We have a disruption of the gas supply in Germany. . .as of now gas is in short supply," Mr. Habeck said Thursday.

The minister said he couldn't rule out that gas rationing for industry would eventually have to be introduced, but said this would likely be avoided due to other measures being put in place by his government.

Mr. Habeck called on consumers, who are initially protected from rationing by law, and industry to start saving gas, which residential users use mainly for heating, and said energy prices would keep rising, warning that "winter is coming -- we must do what's necessary now."

The market is still able to provide enough gas at the moment, he said, but he warned that the government had to act because of shortage of fossil fuels, which could eventually make the cost of gas prohibitively expensive for some companies, forcing them to shut down or relocate.

Energy providers and some of their customers could face insolvency if gas prices continue to rise as expected, experts have warned. The government has passed legislation that would make it easier for them to pass on price increases to customers.

"We are ready to support Ukraine and defend freedom, and there will be a price to pay for that. . . . What we are doing here is a collective effort," said Mr. Habeck, who has called Moscow's throttling of gas supplies an economic attack on Germany by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Moscow has blamed the shortfall on missing turbine parts stuck in Canada due to Western sanctions. European officials have dismissed the explanation and called the restrictions a political move to put pressure on Europe and retaliate for the sanctions.

The Kremlin dismissed Berlin's accusations on Thursday and said Moscow remains a "reliable" supplier of natural gas. "Our German counterparts are well aware of all technological cycles of gas pipeline maintenance . . . so it's strange to call it politics," the Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Supplies could fall further as the Nord Stream pipeline linking Russia to Germany is due for a scheduled maintenance closure on July 11. The closure would normally be for just over 10 days but analysts and officials are concerned the pipeline may not reopen at all.

Russia's throttling of gas supplies has raised fears across Europe that several nations could be faced with a fuel shortage in the winter. It has also increased gas prices, putting additional pressure on economies already struggling with high inflation." [1]

Beloved by the people Mother Merkel, careful previous ruler of Germany, has to be quietly laughing at today's German ruling coalition "heroes" who forgot the interests of Germany's people trying to show off ruling coalition's heroism in Facebook posts. 

1.  The Ukraine Crisis: Germany Considers Natural-Gas Rationing
Pancevski, Bojan; Kantchev, Georgi. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2022: A.9.

 

Ukrainos krizė: popiežiaus praeitis formuoja JAV atžvilgiu atsargią poziciją

„ROMA – popiežiaus Pranciškaus nuomone, konfliktas Ukrainoje nėra tiesioginis gėrio prieš blogį atvejis.

 

    Pontifikas neseniai grupei katalikų žurnalistų pasakė, kad konfliktas Ukrainoje nėra panašus į pasakas. "Raudonkepuraitė buvo gera, o vilkas buvo blogiukas. Čia nėra metafizinių gerų ir blogiukų", - sakė jis.

 

    Popiežiaus Pranciškaus nenoras stoti į konflikto pusę sukėlė antakius tiek Katalikų Bažnyčioje, tiek už jos ribų. Popiežius kelias savaites apgailestavo dėl ukrainiečių kančių, tačiau nenurodė Rusijos, kaip nusikaltėlės.

 

    Jis ne kartą yra užsiminęs, kad Vakarai galėjo išprovokuoti konfliktą.

 

    Už popiežiaus pozicijos slypi jo atsargumo dėl JAV dominuojamos pasaulio tvarkos derinys, nenoras, kad geopolitiniuose konfliktuose būtų laikomas Vakarų šalininku, ir jo ambicijos siekti diplomatinio ryšio su pagrindinėmis ne Vakarų valstybėmis daugiapoliame pasaulyje.

 

    Tam tikru mastu jo sąžininga diplomatija laikosi Vatikano neutralumo tarptautiniuose konfliktuose tradicijų.

 

    Popiežius Pranciškus pastaraisiais metais siekė suartėti su Kinija, nepaisant Pekino susidorojimo su nepriklausoma religija. Popiežiaus požiūris į Rusiją taip pat atspindi jo asmeninę geopolitinę viziją, iš dalies kilusią iš jo, kaip pirmojo Lotynų Amerikos popiežiaus, kilmės. Pasak ilgamečių jo karjeros stebėtojų, jis siekia išlaikyti atstumą nuo Vakarų ir nori tarpininkauti tarp didžiųjų pasaulio valstybių.

 

    Popiežius Pranciškus turi „daugiapolę pasaulio viziją“, pagrįstą pripažinimu, kad „šiuo metu niekas negali pagalvoti apie pasaulio hegemoniją, net Jungtinės Valstijos“, sakė Massimo Borghesi, Moralės filosofijos profesorius iš universiteto Perudžoje ir trijų knygų apie popiežių Pranciškų autorius.

 

    Dviejų knygų apie popiežių Pranciškų autorius Paulas Vallely sakė, kad pontifikas mato „jo, kaip pontifexo – tiltų statytojo – vaidmenį, o ne kaip moralinio pasmerkėjo".

 

    Popiežius du kartus viešuose komentaruose užsiminė, kad konfliktą Ukrainoje galėjo išprovokuoti Šiaurės Atlanto sutarties organizacijos plėtra.

 

    Massimo Franco, Italijos dienraščio „Corriere della Sera“ korespondentas ir trijų knygų apie popiežių autorius, sakė, kad pontifiko atsargumas NATO ir netiesiogiai JAV atžvilgiu atspindi jo argentinietišką kilmę. Lotynų Amerika „yra žemynas, kurį ilgus metus kolonizavo JAV, todėl jis linkęs matyti Jungtines Valstijas kaip karinės sistemos ir agresyvaus kapitalizmo šalį“, – sakė ponas Franco.

 

    Ponas Vallely sako, kad popiežiaus patirtis, susijusi su JAV ekonominiu dominavimu Argentinoje, jam įskiepijo ne priešiškumą JAV per se, o tikėjimą, kad „supergalios yra blogos paprastiems žmonėms likusiame pasaulyje“" [1].

1. The Ukraine Crisis: Pope's Past Shapes U.S.-Wary Stance
Rocca, Francis X. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2022: A.10.

The Ukraine Crisis: Pope's Past Shapes U.S.-Wary Stance

"ROME -- In Pope Francis' view, the conflict in Ukraine isn't a straightforward case of good against evil.

The pontiff recently told a group of Catholic journalists that conflict in Ukraine isn't like fairy tales. "Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad guy. Here, there are no metaphysical good guys and bad guys," he said.

Pope Francis' reluctance to take sides in the conflict has raised eyebrows within and far beyond the Catholic Church. For weeks, while he deplored the suffering of the Ukrainians, the pope proceeded without naming Russia as the perpetrator.

He has more than once suggested that the West might have provoked the conflict.

Behind the pope's stance lies a combination of his wariness of a U.S.-dominated world order, his reluctance to be seen as siding with the West in geopolitical conflicts, and his ambitions for diplomatic outreach toward major non-Western powers in a multipolar world.

To some extent, his evenhanded diplomacy follows Vatican traditions of neutrality in international conflicts.

Pope Francis has in recent years sought a rapprochement with China, despite Beijing's crackdown on independent religion. The pope's approach to Russia also reflects his personal geopolitical vision, in part stemming from his background as the first Latin American pope. He is seeking to keep his distance from the West and wants to mediate among the world's major powers, according to longtime observers of his career.

Pope Francis has "a multipolar vision of the world," based on a recognition that "no one at this moment can think of having world hegemony, not even the United States," said Massimo Borghesi, a professor of moral philosophy at the University of Perugia and author of three books on Pope Francis.

Paul Vallely, author of two books on Pope Francis, said the pontiff "sees his role as pontifex -- bridge builder -- rather than as the issuer of moral condemnations."

The pope has twice suggested in public comments that conflict in Ukraine may have been provoked by enlargement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Massimo Franco, correspondent for Italian daily Corriere della Sera and author of three books about the pope, said the pontiff's wariness of NATO, and by implication the U.S., reflects his Argentine origins. Latin America "is a continent colonized by the United States for years and years and so he tends to see the United States as the country of the military system and aggressive capitalism," Mr. Franco said.

Mr. Vallely says the pope's experience of U.S. economic dominance over Argentina instilled in him not hostility to the U.S. per se but a belief that "superpowers are bad for ordinary people in the rest of the world."" [1]

1. The Ukraine Crisis: Pope's Past Shapes U.S.-Wary Stance
Rocca, Francis X. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2022: A.10.

Brics susitikimas parodė iššūkį JAV vadovaujamoms pastangoms išstumti Maskvą

„Rusijos prezidentas Vladimiras Putinas ketvirtadienį buvo pasveikintas virtualiame viršūnių susitikime su Kinijos, Indijos, Brazilijos ir Pietų Afrikos (Brics) prezidentais, aiškiai primindamas apie JAV vadovaujamų pastangų išstumti Maskvą ribas.

 

    Brics tautų viršūnių susitikimas, kurį praktiškai surengė Kinijos prezidentas Xi Jinpingas, suteikė V. Putinui didžiausią tarptautinį etapą per keturis mėnesius nuo sankcijų Rusijai sugriežtinimo, o jis pasinaudojo juo, pasmerkdamas ekonomines sankcijas ir ragindamas besivystančių ekonomikų vienybę. teiginys, kurį atkartojo ponas Xi.

 

    P. Putino buvimas parodė Rusijos strateginę svarbą skirtingiems pasaulio kampeliams ir ribotą kai kurių svarbiausių šalių apetitą prisijungti prie Vakarų prekybos boikotų. Brics grupė atstovauja keturioms iš 10 daugiausiai gyventojų turinčių pasaulio šalių ir keturioms iš 15 didžiausių ekonomikų.

 

    „Bricso viršūnių susitikimo su Rusija surengimas rodo, kad prezidentas Putinas nėra nepriimtinas visiems“, – sakė Niujorke įsikūrusios Užsienio santykių tarybos vyresnysis bendradarbis Manjari Chatterjee Milleris.

 

    Paskelbtuose pareiškimuose apie viršūnių susitikimo pastabas nė vienas iš Brics lyderių nekaltino Maskvos dėl konflikto ir nevadino jo karu, nors kai kurie nurodė, kad tai daro įtaką infliacijai ir pasaulio maisto tiekimo sutrikimams.

 

    Paskutiniame grupės pareiškime įstrižai sakoma, kad lyderiai aptarė „padėtį Ukrainoje“ ir išreiškė paramą Maskvos ir Kijevo deryboms, o tokius klausimus, kaip humanitarinė pagalba, nurodė daugiašalėms institucijoms, tokioms, kaip Jungtinės Tautos ir Tarptautinis Raudonojo Kryžiaus komitetas.

 

    Bricso viršūnių susitikimas yra tik vienas iš svarbiausių politinių įvykių, kurie ateinančiais mėnesiais turėtų parodyti, kad sankcijos Rusijai kai kurioms tautoms nėra juodai balta problema, kaip JAV ir jos sąjungininkėms.

 

    Pavyzdžiui, Indija yra ir Rusijos naftos, ir karinės įrangos pirkėja, bet vis labiau geidžiama JAV partnerė prieš kinų atkaklumą. Brazilija oficialiai priešinasi konfliktui, bet nenoriai remia sankcijas Rusijai, kuri yra penktadalio trąšų, kuriomis remiasi Brazilijos didžiulė žemės ūkio pramonė, šaltinis.

 

    Pietų Afrikos prezidentas Cyril Ramaphosa, nuvylęs kai kuriuos Vakarų pareigūnus nepalaikydamas sankcijų, ketvirtadienį šios temos vengė, nors užsiminė apie platų susirūpinimą Afrikoje dėl maisto tiekimo iššūkių ir kylančių kainų, dėl kurių dažniausiai kaltinamos sankcijos.

 

    Oficialiai Kinija nestojo į konflikto pusę, bet pasinaudojo konfliktu, kad patvirtintų, jog JAV ekspansizmas yra pagrindinė pasaulinė problema, kaip tai padarė ponas Xi, kreipdamasis į Bricso svečius.

 

    „Šiandien mūsų pasaulį užgožia tamsūs šaltojo karo mentaliteto ir jėgos politikos debesys“, – sakė ponas Xi, vartodamas žodžius, kuriuos dažnai vartoja Kinijos pareigūnai, signalizuojantys apie nepritarimą JAV užsienio politikai. Nors jis pavadino „Ukrainos krizę“ žadintuvu visam pasauliui, jis taip pat kaltino „aklą tikėjimą vadinamąja jėgos padėtimi“ ir besiplečiančius karinius aljansus.

 

    Narendra Modi, Indijos ministras pirmininkas, yra ypač sudėtingas iššūkis Vašingtonui dėl Ukrainos.

 

    Gegužės pabaigoje Bidenas sakė maldavęs J. Modi į sankcijas žiūrėti kaip į pasaulinę, o ne į europinę problemą. Indija pasirašė neaiškią Indo-Ramiojo vandenyno ekonominę programą, kurią propagavo Vašingtonas, siekdama atremti Kinijos galią prekyboje, nors nėra jokios galimybės, kad Bidenas paskatintų J. Modi dėl Rusijos.

 

    Jiedu susitiko Tokijuje dėl keturšalio saugumo dialogo, grupės, kuriai taip pat priklauso Japonija ir Australija.

 

    Ketvirtadienio ilgame Bricso komunikate trūko anti-JAV retorikos, pavyzdžiui, Vašingtono ekonominių sankcijų kritikos, kurią išreiškė ponai Xi ir Putinas savo atskirose pastabose. [1]

1.  The Ukraine Crisis: Summit Welcomes Putin, Shows Disconnect With West --- The Brics meeting displayed the challenge for U.S.-led efforts to ostracize Moscow
Areddy, James T. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2022: A.10.

The Brics meeting displayed the challenge for U.S.-led efforts to ostracize Moscow

"Russian President Vladimir Putin was welcomed at a virtual summit with the presidents of China, India, Brazil and South Africa on Thursday in a stark reminder of the limits of U.S.-led efforts to ostracize Moscow.

The Brics nation summit, hosted virtually by Chinese President Xi Jinping, gave Mr. Putin his most high-profile international stage in the four months since sanctions upon Russia were hardened and he used it to denounce economic sanctions and call for unity among developing economies, a call echoed by Mr. Xi.

Mr. Putin's presence demonstrated Russia's strategic importance to disparate corners of the world and the limited appetite among some pivotal nations to join Western boycotts of trade. The Brics grouping represents four of the world's 10 most populous countries as well as four of the biggest 15 economies.

"The holding of the Brics summit with Russia included is an indication that President Putin is not a pariah for everyone," said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations.

In published statements of summit remarks, none of the Brics leaders appeared to blame Moscow for the conflict or refer to it as a war, though some pointed to its impact on inflation and disruptions to global food supplies.

A final statement from the group obliquely said the leaders discussed "the situation in Ukraine" and expressed their support for talks between Moscow and Kyiv, while referring issues such as humanitarian assistance to multilateral bodies like the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The Brics summit is just one of the major political events that in coming months are expected to demonstrate how the sanctions on Russia isn't a black-and-white issue to some nations, the way it is to the U.S. and its allies.

India, for instance, is both a buyer of Russian oil and military equipment, but an increasingly sought-after partner for the U.S. against Chinese assertiveness. Brazil officially opposes the conflict, but has been reluctant to support sanctions against Russia, the source of a fifth of the fertilizer that underpins its huge farming industry.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who has frustrated some Western officials by not supporting sanctions, on Thursday avoided the topic, though he alluded to widespread concern in Africa about food-supply challenges and rising prices that generally are blamed on the sanctions.

Officially, China hasn't taken sides in the conflict, but has used the conflict to assert that U.S. expansionism is the core global problem, as Mr. Xi did in addressing his Brics guests.

"Our world today is overshadowed by the dark clouds of Cold War mentality and power politics," Mr. Xi said, using words Chinese officials often employ to signal opposition to U.S. foreign policy. While he called "the Ukraine crisis" a wake-up call for the world, he also faulted "blind faith in the so-called position of strength" and expanding military alliances.

Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, represents a particularly knotty challenge for Washington over Ukraine.

In late May, Mr. Biden said he implored Mr. Modi to look at the sanctions as a global issue, rather than a European one. India has signed onto a vague Indo-Pacific Economic Framework promoted by Washington to counter China's power in trade, though there is little sense Mr. Biden has moved Mr. Modi regarding Russia.

The two were meeting in Tokyo for a Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a grouping that also includes Japan and Australia.

Thursday's lengthy Brics communique lacked anti-U.S. rhetoric, such as criticism of Washington's economic sanctions, as expressed by Messrs. Xi and Putin in their individual remarks.” [1]

1.  The Ukraine Crisis: Summit Welcomes Putin, Shows Disconnect With West --- The Brics meeting displayed the challenge for U.S.-led efforts to ostracize Moscow
Areddy, James T. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 24 June 2022: A.10.