Nutraukti ryšius su Kinija nėra taip paprasta

„Jungtinės Valstijos bando sumažinti savo priklausomybę nuo Kinijos prekių, tačiau tyrimai rodo, kaip sunku iš tikrųjų pakeisti pasaulines tiekimo grandines.

 

     Jungtinės Valstijos pastaruosius penkerius metus stengėsi sumažinti savo priklausomybę nuo Kinijos kompiuterių lustų, saulės baterijų ir įvairių vartotojų importo produktų, augant susirūpinimui dėl Pekino grėsmių saugumui, žmogaus teisių padėties ir dominavimo svarbiausių pramonės šakų srityje.

 

     Tačiau net politikos formuotojams ir įmonių vadovams ieškant būdų, kaip nutraukti ryšius su Kinija, vis daugiau įrodymų rodo, kad didžiausios pasaulio ekonomikos tebėra glaudžiai susijusios, nes Kinijos produktai keliauja į Ameriką per kitas šalis. Nauji ir būsimi ekonominiai straipsniai verčia suabejoti, ar Jungtinės Valstijos iš tikrųjų sumažino savo priklausomybę nuo Kinijos ir ką neseniai įvykę prekybos santykių pertvarkymai reiškia pasaulio ekonomikai ir Amerikos vartotojams.

 

     Pokyčiai pasaulinėse gamybos ir tiekimo grandinėse vis dar vystosi, nes veikia tiek buvusio prezidento Donaldo J. Trumpo administracijos įvesti baudžiamieji tarifai, tiek Bideno administracijos nustatyti griežtesni technologijų pardavimo Kinijai apribojimai.

 

     Pagrindinė naujausių apribojimų sumanytoja – prekybos sekretorė Gina Raimondo – šią savaitę Pekine ir Šanchajuje susitinka su aukščiausiais Kinijos pareigūnais, o šis vizitas pabrėžia iššūkį JAV, iššūkį, kuriuo siekiama sumažinti tai, kiek jos priklauso nuo Kinija, kai šalių ekonomiką sieja tiek daug ryšių.

 

     Dėl šių persvarstytų prekybos taisyklių, kartu su kitais ekonominiais pokyčiais, sumažėjo Kinijos importo į Jungtines Valstijas dalis, nes padidėjo importo iš kitų pigių šalių, tokių, kaip Vietnamas ir Meksika, dalis. Bideno administracija taip pat paskatino gaminti puslaidininkius, elektromobilius ir saulės baterijas šalies viduje, o statybų gamybos apimtys Jungtinėse Valstijose sparčiai auga.

 

     Tačiau nauji tyrimai, aptarti Kanzas Sičio federalinio atsargų banko metinėje konferencijoje Jackson Hole mieste Vajominge, šeštadienį parodė, kad nors pasaulinės prekybos modeliai pasikeitė, Amerikos tiekimo grandinės išliko labai priklausomos nuo Kinijos produkcijos – tik ne taip tiesiogiai.

 

     Savo darbe ekonomistai Laura Alfaro iš Harvardo verslo mokyklos ir Davinas Choras iš Tucko verslo mokyklos Dartmute rašė, kad Kinijos importo dalis JAV sumažėjo iki maždaug 17 procentų 2022 m., (o 2017 m. ji siekė 22 procentus), ypač pabrėžiant mažesnę Amerikos importo dalį tokiose kategorijose, kaip mašinos, avalynė ir telefonų aparatai. 

 

Taip atsitiko, kad tokios vietos, kaip Vietnamas, įsitvirtino – tiekė JAV daugiau drabužių ir tekstilės gaminių, o kaimynai, pavyzdžiui, Meksika, pradėjo siųsti daugiau automobilių dalių, stiklo, geležies ir plieno.

 

     Atrodytų, kad tai ženklas, kad Jungtinės Valstijos mažina savo priklausomybę nuo Kinijos. Tačiau yra kliūtis: ir Meksika, ir Vietnamas patys importuoja daugiau produktų iš Kinijos, o Kinijos tiesioginės investicijos į šias šalis išaugo, o tai rodo, kad Kinijos įmonės ten steigia daugiau gamyklų.

 

     Tendencijos rodo, kad įmonės gali tiesiog perkelti paskutinius savo ilgų tiekimo grandinių žingsnius iš Kinijos, o kai kurios įmonės naudoja tokias šalis, kaip Vietnamas ar Meksika, kaip sustojimo zonas, siųsdamos prekes, kurios vis dar iš dalies arba didžioji dalis pagaminta Kinijoje, į Jungtines Valstijas.

 

     Nors atsiejimo šalininkai teigia, kad bet koks pasitraukimas nuo Kinijos gali būti geras dalykas, panašu, kad pertvarka turi kitų pasekmių. Straipsnyje nustatyta, kad kintančios tiekimo grandinės taip pat yra susijusios su aukštesnėmis prekių kainomis.

 

     Remiantis autorių skaičiavimais, importo iš Kinijos dalies sumažėjimas penkiais procentiniais punktais galėjo padidinti Vietnamo importo kainas amerikiečiams 9,8 proc., o Meksikos – 3,2 proc. Nors reikia daugiau tyrimų, poveikis gali šiek tiek prisidėti prie vartotojų infliacijos, sako jie.

 

     „Tai yra pirmasis mūsų įspėjimas – tikėtina, kad tai turės įtakos sąnaudoms, o antrasis įspėjimas – vargu ar tai sumažins priklausomybę“ nuo Kinijos“, – interviu sakė ponia Alfaro.

 

     Tyrimas atkartoja išvadas iš būsimo Caroline Freund iš Kalifornijos universiteto San Diego ir Pasaulio banko bei Tarptautinio valiutos fondo ekonomistų, kuriame buvo nagrinėjama, kaip pasikeitė prekyba konkrečiu importu iš Kinijos po to, kai D. Trumpas pradėjo įvesdinėti muitus.

 

     Šiame dokumente nustatyta, kad tarifai turėjo didelį poveikį prekybai, sumažindami prekių, kurioms buvo taikomi mokesčiai, importą iš JAV, net jei absoliuti JAV prekybos su Kinija vertė toliau didėjo.

 

     Ekonomikos, kurios sugebėjo užimti Kinijos prarastą rinkos dalį, buvo tos, kurios jau specializuojasi gaminant produktus, kuriems taikomi tarifai, pavyzdžiui, elektroniką ar chemikalus, taip pat vietose, kurios buvo giliai integruotos į Kinijos tiekimo grandines  ir turėjo daug prekybos pirmyn ir atgal su Kinija, sakė M. Freund. Tarp jų buvo Vietnamas, Meksika ir Taivanas.

 

     „Jie taip pat didina importą iš Kinijos, būtent tų produktų, kuriuos eksportuoja į JAV“, – sakė ji.

 

     Ką visa tai reiškia pastangoms grąžinti gamybą į JAV, neaišku. Tyrėjai daro skirtingas išvadas apie tai, kiek ši tendencija vyksta.

 

     Vis dėlto abi tyrėjų grupės – taip pat ir kiti ekonomistai Jackson Hole, labiausiai stebimoje kasmetinėje FED konferencijoje – atstūmė idėją, kad šie tiekimo grandinės pokyčiai reiškė, kad pasaulinė prekyba apskritai mažėja arba kad pasaulis tampa mažiau tarpusavyje susijęs.

 

     Pandemija, įvykiai Ukrainoje ir įtampa tarp JAV ir Kinijos kai kuriuos analitikus paskatino spėlioti, kad pasaulis gali nusigręžti nuo globalizacijos, tačiau ekonomistai teigia, kad šios tendencijos duomenys tikrai nepatvirtina.

 

     „Mes nematome deglobalizacijos makro lygiu“, – per Jackson Hole simpoziumo komisiją sakė Pasaulio prekybos organizacijos generalinis direktorius Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Tačiau ji atkreipė dėmesį į tai, ką ji apibūdino, kaip nerimą keliantį lūkesčių pasikeitimą.

 

     „Retorika apie deglobalizaciją įsigali, ir tai skatina politinę įtampą, o vėliau ir politikos formavimą“, – sakė ji. „Bijau, kad retorika gali virsti realybe ir mes galime pamatyti šį investavimo modelių pokytį."

 

     Kiti „Jackson Hole“ įspėjo apie kitas pasekmes, pavyzdžiui, gaminių trūkumą.

 

     Perėjimas prie gamybos šalies viduje arba tik glaudžiai susijusiose šalyse gali „reikšti naujus tiekimo suvaržymus, ypač jei prekybos susiskaidymas paspartėja, prieš atkuriant vidaus tiekimo bazę“, penktadienį sakė Europos centrinio banko vadovė Christine Lagarde.

 

     Pasaulinės tiekimo grandinės keičiasi lėtai, nes įmonėms reikia laiko planuoti, investuoti ir statyti naujas gamyklas. Ekonomistai ir toliau seka dabartinius pasaulinio tiekimo pokyčius.

 

     Atsižvelgiant į didėjančią geopolitinę įtampą su Kinija ir pastaruoju metu kilusias bėdas šalies ekonomikoje, tolesni pasaulinių tiekimo grandinių pokyčiai gali būti neišvengiami.

 

     Ponia Alfaro sakė, kad vienas klausimas ekonomistams yra toks, ar, pavyzdžiui, gamyklų perkėlimo į Jungtines Valstijas ar kitas draugiškas šalis ekonominė nauda, pvz., inovacijos JAV gamybos sektoriuje, galiausiai viršys strategijos išlaidas, tas didesnes kainas, kurias moka vartotojai.

 

     Be to, ponia Freund sakė mananti, kad vyriausybė ir kiti „tikrai nepakankamai įvertino“ persikėlimo išlaidas.

 

     Tipiškas pasakojimas buvo toks: „Mes viską sugrąžinsime, turėsime visus šiuos darbus ir viskas bus puiku, bet iš tikrųjų tai padaryti kainuos labai brangiai, " ji pasakė. „Iš dalies priežasčių, kodėl praeityje buvo tokia žema infliacija, buvo ta, kad atveždavome pigesnių prekių ir gerindavome produktyvumą dėl globalizacijos.“ [1]

 

Mes skiedžiame kasdien propagandą apie demokratiją bei žmogaus teises, o realiai jokios demokratijos Kinijoje ar kitur nepadaugėjo, tik mūsų pliurpalais didiname tarpininkų tarp mūsų ir Kinijos uždarbį. Tas pats su Rusija, kurios perdirbtą naftą dyzelio ir benzino pavidalu mums brangiai pardavinėja Indija. Reikia nustoti plepančius kvailiukus rinkti į aukštas pareigas mūsų valstybėse. 

 

1. Cutting Ties With China Isn't So Easy: [Business/Financial Desk]. Swanson, Ana; Smialek, Jeanna. 
New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 01 Sep 2023: B.1.

 

Cutting Ties With China Isn't So Easy

 

"The United States is trying to lessen its dependence on Chinese goods, but research is showing how tough it is to truly alter global supply chains.

The United States has spent the past five years pushing to reduce its reliance on China for computer chips, solar panels and various consumer imports amid growing concern over Beijing's security threats, human rights record and dominance of critical industries.

But even as policymakers and corporate executives look for ways to cut ties with China, a growing body of evidence suggests that the world's largest economies remain deeply intertwined as Chinese products make their way to America through other countries. New and forthcoming economic papers call into question whether the United States has actually lessened its reliance on China -- and what a recent reshuffling of trade relationships means for the global economy and American consumers.

Changes to global manufacturing and supply chains are still unfolding, as both punishing tariffs imposed by the administration of former President Donald J. Trump and tougher restrictions on the sale of technology to China imposed by the Biden administration play out.

The key architect of the latest restrictions -- Gina Raimondo, the commerce secretary -- is meeting with top Chinese officials in Beijing and Shanghai this week, a visit that underscores the challenge facing the United States as it seeks to reduce how much it depends on China when the countries' economies share so many ties.

These reworked trade rules, along with other economic changes, have caused China's share of imports into the United States to fall as the share of imports from other low-cost countries like Vietnam and Mexico have climbed. The Biden administration has also pumped up incentives for producing semiconductors, electric cars and solar panels domestically, and manufacturing construction in the United States has been rising quickly.

But new research discussed at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Saturday found that while global trade patterns have reshuffled, American supply chains have remained very reliant on Chinese production -- just not as directly.

In their paper, the economists Laura Alfaro at Harvard Business School and Davin Chor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth wrote that China's share of U.S. imports fell to about 17 percent in 2022 after peaking at about 22 percent in 2017, as the country accounted for a smaller share of America's imports in categories like machinery, footwear and telephone sets. As that happened, places like Vietnam gained ground -- supplying the United States with more apparel and textiles -- while neighbors like Mexico began sending more car parts, glass, iron and steel.

That would seem to be a sign that the United States is lessening its reliance on China. But there's a hitch: Both Mexico and Vietnam have themselves been importing more products from China, and Chinese direct investment into those countries has surged, indicating that Chinese firms are setting up more factories there.

The trends suggest that firms may simply be moving the last steps in their lengthy supply chains out of China, and that some companies are using countries like Vietnam or Mexico as staging areas to send goods that are still partly or largely made in China into the United States.

While proponents of decoupling argue that any move away from China may be a good thing, the reshuffling appears to have other consequences. The paper finds that shifting supply chains are also associated with higher prices for goods.

A drop of five percentage points in the share of imports coming from China may have pushed prices on Vietnamese imports up 9.8 percent and Mexican imports up 3.2 percent, based on the authors' calculations. While more research is needed, the effect could be slightly contributing to consumer inflation, they say.

"That is our first caution -- this is likely to have cost effects -- and the second caution is that it is unlikely to diminish dependence" on China, Ms. Alfaro said in an interview.

The research echoes findings from a forthcoming paper by Caroline Freund of the University of California, San Diego, and economists at the World Bank and International Monetary Fund, which examined how trade in specific imports from China had changed since Mr. Trump began imposing tariffs on them.

That paper found that tariffs had a substantial impact on trade, reducing U.S. imports of the goods that were subject to the levies, even as the absolute value of U.S. trade with China continued to rise.

The economies that were able to capture the market share lost by China were those that already specialized in making the products that were subject to tariffs, like electronics or chemicals, as well as locations that were deeply integrated into China's supply chains and had a lot of trade back and forth with China, Ms. Freund said. They included Vietnam, Mexico and Taiwan.

"They're also increasing imports from China, precisely in those products that they're exporting to the U.S.," she said.

What this all means for efforts to bring manufacturing back to the United States is unclear. The researchers come to different conclusions about how much that trend is occurring.

Still, both sets of researchers -- as well as other economists at Jackson Hole, the Fed's most closely watched annual conference -- pushed back on the idea that these supply-chain shifts meant that global trade overall was retrenching, or that the world was becoming less interconnected.

The pandemic, events in Ukraine, and tensions between the United States and China have prompted some analysts to speculate that the world may turning away from globalization, but economists say that trend is not really borne out in the data.

"We don't see de-globalization at a macro level," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the director general of the World Trade Organization, said during a panel at the Jackson Hole symposium. But she pointed to what she characterized as a worrying change in expectations.

"Rhetoric on de-globalization is taking hold, and that feeds into the political tensions and then into the policymaking," she said. "My fear is that rhetoric might turn into reality and we might see this shift in investment patterns."

Others at Jackson Hole warned of other consequences, such as product shortages.

A move toward production domestically or in only closely allied countries could "imply new supply constraints, especially if trade fragmentation accelerates before the domestic supply base has been rebuilt," Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, said in a speech on Friday.

Global supply chains tend to change slowly, because it takes time for companies to plan, invest in and construct new factories. Economists are continuing to track current changes to global sourcing.

Given growing geopolitical tensions with China as well as more recent troubles in the country's economy, further shifts in global supply chains may be unavoidable.

One question for economists now, Ms. Alfaro said, is whether the economic benefits from moving factories back to the United States or other friendly countries -- like innovation in the U.S. manufacturing sector -- will ultimately outweigh the costs of the strategy, for example, the higher prices paid by consumers.

And separately, Ms. Freund said she believed the costs of reshoring had been "really under considered" by the government and others.

The typical narrative was that "we're going to bring it all back and we're going to have all these jobs and it's all going to be hunky-dory, but, in fact, it's going to be extremely costly to do that," she said. "Part of the reason we had such low inflation in the past was because we were bringing in lower-cost goods and improving productivity through globalization."" [1]

 

We pump out the propaganda about democracy and human rights every day, and in reality no democracy has increased in China or elsewhere, we only increase the earnings of intermediaries between us and China with our ideas. The same with Russia, whose refined oil in the form of diesel and petrol is sold to us by India at high prices. We need to stop electing babbling fools to high positions in our states.

 

1. Cutting Ties With China Isn't So Easy: [Business/Financial Desk]. Swanson, Ana; Smialek, Jeanna. 
New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 01 Sep 2023: B.1.

 

Why are we, Lithuanians, so eager to buy unrealistically expensive living places?

"Lithuanians are recovering from the previous boom in prosperity, when not only prices but also wages jumped up, and they are gradually getting poorer, because the real purchasing power - what the average wage can buy, regardless of its formal increase - is falling. However, the prices of real estate that no one is buying are stuck.

Neither interest rates trying to fly into space nor reduced demand move them down more seriously. For several years now, the persuasions of analysts that you should not buy, but rent and live long and happily have not worked. On the other hand, for Lithuanians real estate continues to be, if not a huge craze, then at least part of the national sport. According to the data of the State Data Agency, if in 2012 4,622 natural persons engaged in transactions with real estate (this activity code covers everything from trading to renting), that is, in 2021 already 18,395 citizens.

Nothing strange, remembering the real estate boom that happened. One part flocked to look for easy money, to invest as if from a cornucopia of various supports and payments during the pandemic, the other try to take care of their old age. "Investment apartment" has never been so popular.

Here we can start looking for answers why a statistical Lithuanian, unlike a statistical German, tends to buy, even if giving up the last bite of bread, stick to one place instead of renting and thus change cities and places of residence during his life, choosing to be as comfortable as possible.

"Verslo žinios" surveyed banks and it turned out that the average loan is currently around 100 thousand euros, a monthly payment is from 600 euros, the monthly salary of the borrower from 1,500 euros "in hand", but usually the loan is taken together with a co-debtor.

As for housing ownership in Lithuania, 72.6 percent have their own houses, 16 percent are those who purchased housing with a loan, 9.4 percent. - rent cheaper or live for free, 2 percent pay the market price. For comparison, in the Netherlands 60.3 percent have a mortgage, only 10.2 percent of residents own their living place.

A large number of residents in Denmark, Sweden, and Germany rent apartments, much less own their own homes.

This is where the fun begins. We sometimes try to promote that it is worth renting and not getting attached to the property, especially when the loan payment is higher than the rent.

However, at the same time, one forgets to mention a nuance that is particularly significant when a person chooses to buy or rent.

This is social security. In many Western countries and Scandinavia, the probability that if you lose your job and can no longer pay rent (in 2023, the average old-age pension in Lithuania is 542 euros - what can you rent in Vilnius for that amount and still live on?) is quite low. For example, the Netherlands has a particularly developed social housing institute and low-income people live successfully in cottages and apartments, perhaps just outside the city center. If a period of unemployment occurs, the rental payment is reduced or disappears at the same time. This is a form of support. At the same time, it affects the other rental market. In Germany, when problems arose due to too high rental prices, the state simply froze them. I am not going to decide whether it is good or bad, but it is recognized that rent and housing are not only commercial, but also social.

Who will answer today - to which old people's home will go a citizen who, believing the analysts' stories, rent a house for the rest of his life, and then be left with a pension of 542 euros? 

Can we ensure the security of this layer? They are desperately trying to buy an "investment apartment" to at least double their pension, because they see no other way to live in Lithuania with dignity. How many analysts during the real estate boom talked about it?

It goes without saying that people, impoverished during the crises that come into their lives every ten years, "had to take care of themselves". I don't blame the pension system written by the lobbyists, where the mutual funds benefit more than the contributors, but this is not the generation that could yet understand how the break goes in transition from socialism to capitalism. It just is this way.

What to do? The answer is to create and improve the social security system so that a person receives the appropriate service for the taxes paid.

At the same time, it would reduce social tension. Without solving these problems, we may go the way of Portugal. According to the BBC, the average rent in Lisbon today for a standard 50 square meter apartment is now around €1,200 and the minimum wage is around €760. People work two jobs just to avoid being thrown out on the street.

Influencer Diego Soro described how ordinary Portuguese people live:

"There are divorced couples who can't move out and live separately because they can't afford it financially, which I think is cruel. Elderly people are forced to choose between paying rent or medicine, so they shorten their lives just to keep a roof over their heads."

Dissatisfied with the situation, residents of Lisbon and surrounding cities have already started to take to the streets - one of the rallies attracted 30,000 people, and the local mayor called this situation "the greatest crisis of this generation".

Although rent prices are enormous, higher than in the richest districts of Berlin, and wages are much lower than in Germany, a quarter of the apartments in the city center are empty. After the pandemic, the market for short-term rentals, which bring higher income than long-term rentals and increase the price of the latter, has been disrupted. Rich people fleeing from Russia after the events in Ukraine pushed the prices even higher. In order to get a "golden" EU visa, you need real estate. Therefore, some of the apartments are empty - rich Russians simply rewrite them to each other in order to comply with the formalities for the Schengen visa and residence permit in the EU.

The Portuguese are already considering that it is time to start regulating the rental market.

Is regulation necessary in Lithuania? I don't think so, but more and more social security would change not only social services, but also the real estate market. So far, the Santaros University Hospital has funds for a rest home in Nida, but there is no money for a quality nursing home.

  And as long as there are quite a lot of decently earning people who worry about the future, there will always be someone to manipulate them."