"Visual evidence from a remote base in the Arctic showed launch preparations mirroring those that preceded earlier tests.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia claimed on Thursday that his country had conducted a successful test of the Burevestnik cruise missile, an experimental nuclear-powered, nuclear-capable weapon with a theoretical range of thousands of miles.
"No one in their sound mind will use a nuclear weapon against Russia," Mr. Putin said.
Mr. Putin, speaking in the Black Sea city of Sochi at an event of the Valdai Discussion Club, a Kremlin-affiliated research institute, did not say when the test had occurred or offer any details, including how far the missile flew. His claim of a successful launch, or any details around the test, could not be immediately independently confirmed.
The New York Times had reported days earlier that satellite imagery and aviation data from August and September suggested that Russia was preparing to test the missile, or had recently conducted a test.
Movements of aircraft and vehicles at a base in Russia's remote Arctic region and its surrounding areas were consistent with preparations that were made for tests of the missile in 2017 and 2018, according to a Times analysis.
U.S. surveillance planes were also tracked in the area in late September and early October, and Russian aviation alerts have warned pilots to avoid nearby airspace.
"It is exotic in its testing and development phase," Daryl G. Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said. Whether the Burevestnik, which is also known as the SSC-X-9 Skyfall, was tested again between 2019 and 2022 is unknown, but even with a successful launch, the missile would still be some time away from "operational deployment," Mr. Kimball added.
According to the Nuclear Threat Initiative report, the missile is a "second-strike, strategic-range weapon," intended to be launched after a wave of nuclear strikes have devastated targets in Russia. The missile could carry a conventional warhead but, in practice, would likely carry a nuclear payload, albeit a smaller one than most other nuclear-capable weapons. If used in wartime, the missile could have the potential to destroy large urban areas and military targets, experts said.
While Russia has shared little about the Burevestnik's specific design, Mr. Putin has said it is nuclear-powered. The missile is thought to be launched by a solid-fuel rocket motor before a small nuclear reactor activates in flight, theoretically allowing the missile to stay aloft indefinitely.
The Burevestnik is one of six strategic weapons, along with others such as the Kinzhal ballistic missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, that Mr. Putin introduced in a 2018 speech. He asserted that the weapons could overpower and outmaneuver existing U.S. defenses. Addressing the West, he said, "You have failed to contain Russia."
Visual evidence of testing preparations includes before-and-after satellite images at the Arctic base, known as Pankovo.
Imagery taken on the morning of Sept. 20 showed numerous vehicles present on a launchpad at the base, including a truck with a trailer that appears to correspond to the dimensions of the missile. A weather shelter that typically covers the specific launch site had been moved about 50 feet. By the afternoon, the trailer was gone and the shelter was moved back to its original position.
Additional imagery captured on Sept. 28 showed the launchpad active again, with a similar trailer present and the shelter again drawn back.
On Aug. 31, the Russian authorities issued an aviation notice for a "temporary danger area," advising pilots to avoid part of the Barents Sea off the coast and 12 miles from the launch site. The notice has since been extended several times and, as of Wednesday, was scheduled to be in force through Oct. 12. Russia issued a similar notice before a Burevestnik test in 2019.
Additionally, two Russian aircraft specifically used for collecting data from missile launches were parked about 100 miles south of the launch site in early August, at the Rogachevo air base, according to an analysis of satellite images by Bellona, a Norwegian environmental organization. The aircraft are owned by Rosatom, the Russian atomic energy company. They remained at that base at least through Sept. 26, according to additional satellite imagery. During Burevestnik tests in 2018, aircraft of the same type were also in the vicinity.
U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft also flew at least three missions off the coast of the Arctic island where the launch site is in late September and early October, according to the tracking platform Flightradar24. The three missions represented a slight uptick from usual known activity.
The highly secretive nature of the Burevestnik missile initiative and the remote launch location make it difficult to determine if Pankovo was the site of a recent test. While known tests of the Burevestnik have been largely conducted at the Arctic base in the past, Russia has also previously used other bases to test the missile.
If put into use, the Burevestnik would be considered part of Russia's nuclear arsenal, making it subject to a nuclear arms reduction treaty that Moscow signed in 2011. That agreement limits the total number of warheads and delivery vehicles the country can deploy.
But with the treaty, known as New START, set to expire in February 2026, the missile could contribute, Mr. Kimball said, to "the leading edge of an uncontrolled arms race" if no new agreement were to replace the expiring treaty." [1]
1. Putin Claims Russia Has Tested Nuclear Missile: [Foreign Desk]. Mellen, Riley. New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 06 Oct 2023: A.6.
