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2024 m. gegužės 2 d., ketvirtadienis

As Prices Soar, Drivers Cling to Old Cars


"Jeremy Morris is used to friends making fun of the Toyota Tacoma he has driven for 24 years. He still insists it was one of the best money decisions of his life.

The 45-year-old financial adviser in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, estimates he saved more than $100,000 by never replacing the pickup. His ballpark figure factors in what he would have spent on a new car every five years, minus the roughly $20,000 he paid for repairs and upkeep over 300,000 miles.

There have always been people who relish driving cars till the wheels fall off, but the case for this frugal personal-finance move has grown stronger as the costs of car ownership have ballooned.

The average transaction price on a new vehicle was $46,660 in March, compared with $39,950 three years earlier, according to Edmunds, an online car-shopping guide. Repair and maintenance costs are up 8.2% year-over-year, and insurance costs are up 22.2%, Labor Department data show.

The increase in car costs is one of the many developments that have led to higher inflation. The Federal Reserve, which is wrapping up a two-day policy meeting Wednesday, has attempted to address stubborn inflation by raising interest rates. That has also made auto loans more expensive.

To cope, many owners are squeezing more life out of their current ride. U.S. vehicles' average age hit a record 12.5 years in 2023, increasing for the sixth straight year, according to S&P Global Mobility.

Higher auto prices, in combination with longer vehicle lifespans and new technology, are changing the math on the optimal amount of time to keep a car. For Morris, the peeling black paint on his truck only makes him fonder of it.

"My long-term plan with the truck is never getting rid of it," he said.

Tom Piippo once put up pictures of customers and their vehicles on the wall of his repair shop in Rudyard, Mich., after odometers reached 200,000 miles. The tradition stopped years ago after the milestone became commonplace.

"I ran out of wall," said Piippo, whose Tri-County Motors regularly sees vehicles in the 200k club.

In the 1990s, cars with 100,000 miles on them were nearing their end, but now they are aging more gracefully. Rising vehicle prices also have led customers to hang on to old cars longer, Piippo said. He said he hears the same from other mechanics in the Automotive Service Association, a trade group. Many drivers come into his shop with cars from the late 1990s and early 2000s.

The average age of Americans' vehicles has risen significantly over the past 50 years, according to data from the Federal Highway Administration. 

The share of cars that are 10 or more years old climbed from 16.9% in 1977 to 44.2% in 2022.

There are other reasons drivers are holding on to their cars. Newer models have become more expensive to repair. Seemingly simple fixes can run up large bills when damage affects sensors, screens and other new technology that has become more standard.

And more owners have taken out longer loans that can stretch out to six or seven years. "People have that mentality of, I won't trade in my car as long as I'm still making payments," said Ivan Drury, director of insights at Edmunds.

The economics of long-term car ownership work better with some makes than others. Lexus and Toyota were the two with the fewest problems reported by owners in the first three years after buying them new, according to the latest dependability study by research firm J.D. Power.

Electric vehicles had some of the highest rates of problems reported in the study, in part because of their batteries and that they tend to come with more technology built in.

Low inventories and high prices in recent years have further complicated the math on car purchases, leading some drivers to rethink the inflection point at which it no longer makes sense to hold on to a vehicle.

Steven and Kristen Newton of Silver Spring, Md., once replaced their cars roughly every eight years.

When Kristen's 2017 Ford Escape needed a new transmission last year, that normally would have been the couple's cue to sell. But buying a comparable car was so expensive that they decided to put $6,500 into fixing theirs up.

"I'm so glad not to have a car payment right now, especially not an $800 car payment," said Steven Newton, a 56-year-old federal contractor.

Newton added that their time owning the Ford might only be halfway over.

Owners typically consider unloading their vehicle when they learn of a repair that will cost 10% or more of what they would pay for a new one, said Drury of Edmunds. He cautions that people tend to underrate the value of paying for a major fix.

"Some people think if it's got a new engine or a rebuilt transmission, it's not worth much, and that's not correct," he said.

But he said the reason drivers typically give up on a car is something more intuitive. It is when they lose trust in it.

Liz Nickles is proudly bringing up the nation's average vehicle age with her white 2004 Cadillac DeVille nicknamed "The Pearl."

"It's like driving a giant vanilla ice-cream bar on wheels through New York City," said Nickles, a baby boomer who is a writer and marketer. "It's smooth. It glides."

Seeing today's car prices makes her cling more tightly to The Pearl. Finances aside, Nickles says the sedan feels sturdy and practically indestructible.

"The wheels are never going to fall off of that thing," she said. "My wheels are falling off before its wheels, that's for sure."" [1]

If Germans will cling to their old cars too, it means that we will have in Lithuania even more old and more smoky diesels as before. Environmental protection people will get even more bribes. Life is good in Lithuania, good for some, I mean. Since only bribes taking people in Lithuania can afford to buy good food, only bribes taking people are making babies. Those babies see that you don't have to work, that there is communism for bribe takers, so these babies grow up happiest in the world.

1. As Prices Soar, Drivers Cling to Old Cars. Pinsker, Joe.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 May 2024: A.9.  

Vakarietiški automobiliai nėra vieninteliai, susiduriatys su konkurencija: Brazilijos lėktuvų gamintojas galvoja sukurti varžovą „Boeing“ ir „Airbus“ lėktuvams

    „Kadangi „Boeing“ išgyvena naujausią krizę, vienas iš mažesnių konkurentų „Embraer“ tiria naujo modelio galimybes, siekdamas mesti iššūkį didelių reaktyvinių lėktuvų duopolijai, kuris pramonėje dominuoja beveik tris dešimtmečius.

 

     „Embraer“ atliktas vidinis vertinimas parodė, kad Brazilijos įmonė turi technologinių žinių ir gamybos galimybių, kad galėtų sukurti naujos kartos siauro korpuso orlaivį – pirmąjį tame rinkos segmente, sakė su įmonės strategija ir planavimu susipažinę žmonės. „Embraer“ rinkos vertė siekia apie 5 milijardus JAV dolerių ir ji specializuojasi regioninių ir verslo lėktuvų gamyboje.

 

     Lėktuvas tiesiogiai konkuruotų su Boeing 737 MAX ir Airbus A320 įpėdiniais kategorijoje, kuri yra svarbi abiem gamintojams.

 

     „Žalias“ projekto įgyvendinimas taip pat reikštų potencialų statymą: naujų orlaivių programų kūrimas paprastai kainuoja dešimtis milijardų dolerių, gali užtrukti daugiau, nei dešimtmetį nuo pradžios iki eksploatavimo pradžios ir reguliariai nepatenka į rinką.

 

     Gusas Kelly, vieno didžiausių orlaivių nuomotojų „AerCap“ vadovas, teigė, kad iki 2030-ųjų vidurio–pabaigoje nesitikės jokio naujo „Embraer“ pagaminto siauro korpuso reaktyvinio lėktuvo, nors oro linijos ir nuomotojai galėtų džiaugtis konkurencija. „Manau, kad tai toli, jei atvirai“, – trečiadienį investuotojams paskambino Kelly. „Ir net jei tai atsitiks, nemanau, kad tai bus aktualu ateinančius 15 metų."

 

     Nors planai dar tik pradedami kurti, o galutinis sprendimas dar nepriimtas, „Embraer“ klojo pagrindą, įskaitant galimo naudingosios apkrovos ir nuotolio reikalavimų įvertinimą.

 

     Pasak žmonių, „Embraer“ taip pat išklausė potencialius finansinius ir pramonės partnerius, kurių įmonei prireiks, įskaitant Saudo Arabijos viešąjį investicijų fondą ir gamybos įmones Turkijoje, Indijoje ir Pietų Korėjoje.

 

     „Embraer“ atstovas sakė, kad nors bendrovė „tikrai turi galimybę sukurti naują siauro korpuso orlaivį“, šiuo metu ji neplanuoja didelio naujo projekto ir daugiausia dėmesio skiria savo esamų modelių pardavimui.

 

     „Embraer“ ambicijos pastaraisiais mėnesiais sustiprėjo, kai „Boeing“ kilo suirutė, kai „Alaska Airlines“ valdomas lėktuvas 737 MAX prarado fiuzeliažo skydą skrydžio viduryje, sakė žmonės. Dėl nelaimingo atsitikimo JAV oro saugos agentūros apribojo „Boeing“ gamybos įrenginius ir paskatino vadovų sukrėtimą, įskaitant generalinio direktoriaus Davido Calhouno atsistatydinimą iki metų pabaigos.

 

     „Boeing“ neturi tvirto plano, kaip pakeis savo dešimtmečius senumo 737 liniją. Bendrovė teigė, kad ateinančio dešimtmečio viduryje galėtų paleisti naują orlaivį, panašiai į dabartinį „Airbus“ tvarkaraštį, tačiau vėliau Calhounas teigė, kad sprendimą priims būsimas „Boeing“ vadovas.

 

     Norint sukurti naujas orlaivių programas, parengti tiekimo grandines ir laimėti reguliavimo patvirtinimą, reikia ilgo įgyvendinimo laiko. Calhoun teigė, kad įmonei reikės apie 50 milijardų dolerių, kad sukurtų 737 MAX įpėdinį – grynųjų pinigų, kurių skolų apkrautas gamintojas neturi. „Boeing“, kuri praėjusią savaitę teigė, kad per pastarąjį ketvirtį sudegino beveik 4 mlrd. dolerių, 2023 m. baigė turėdama 52,3 mlrd. dolerių grynąją skolą.

 

     Naujas modelis taip pat būtų patenkinamas Embraer atsakas po to, kai Boeing prieš ketverius metus vienašališkai pasitraukė iš 4 mlrd. dolerių vertės sandorio įsigyti Brazilijos bendrovės komercinių lėktuvų verslą. „Embraer“ vis dar laukia arbitražo, kurį jis pateikė Tarptautiniams prekybos rūmams po to, kai „Boeing“ atsisakė sandorio, išvadų.

 

     „Kalbėjausi su visais „Boeing“ darbuotojais, į kuriuos galėčiau kreiptis, o žinutė ta pati: susitvarkyk“, – praėjusią savaitę per skambutį sakė „American Airlines“ generalinis direktorius Robertas Isomas, vienas didžiausių „Embraer“ klientų.

 

     Vėliau jis sakė, kad „Embraer“ palyginus „kasdien teikė produktus per visą pandemiją, nepaisant jų tiekimo grandinės rūpesčių“ ir kad kiti gamintojai „gali iš jų daug pasimokyti“.

 

     Daugelis naujų orlaivių programų nepavyksta. Pavyzdžiui, „Mitsubishi Heavy Industries“ 2023 m. nutraukė 16 metų trukusį projektą, skirtą sukurti visiškai naują regioninį lėktuvą. 2017 m. „Bombardier“ buvo priverstas perduoti nuostolingą C serijos orlaivių programą „Airbus“ už 1 dolerį po to, kai „Boeing“ pateikė peticiją JAV prekybos departamentui, kad naujajam modeliui būtų taikomi dideli importo muitai.

 

     Pati „Embraer“ šiuo metu negamina orlaivių, kurie atitiktų Boeing ar Airbus populiarių siaurų korpusų dydį ir diapazoną – reaktyvinius lėktuvus, kurie apibrėžiami vienu koridoriumi ir sudaro pasaulinio aviacijos sektoriaus stuburą. Didžiausias jos modelis, regioninis reaktyvinis lėktuvas E2-195, pradėtas eksploatuoti 2018 m., talpina daugiausia 146 keleivius, o mažiausiame siauro korpuso Boeing 737 MAX 7 – daugiausiai 172 keleivius.

 

     Vis dėlto Brazilijos įmonė galėtų panaudoti E2 dizaino ir technologijos aspektus, kaip naujojo orlaivio pagrindą, kad subsidijuoti kai kurias iš milijardų išlaidų, jei būtų sukurtas visiškai naujas dizainas.

 

     „Embraer“ vis dar yra palyginti mažas žaidėjas orlaivių gamybos pasaulyje, palyginti su „Boeing“ ir „Airbus“. Praėjusiais metais bendrovė klientams pristatė 181 orlaivį, iš kurių „Boeing“ – 528, o „Airbus“ – 735 lėktuvus.

 

     „Airbus“ teigė, kad antroje 2030-ųjų pusėje į rinką pateiks savo naują siaurą korpusą.

 

     Europos lėktuvų gamintoja, didžiausia pasaulyje, nagrinėjo daugybę patobulinimų, kurie, palyginti su dabartiniu A320neo modeliu, degalų efektyvumą galėtų padidinti 20–25 %, įskaitant naujų variklių ir sparnų dizainą. Bendrovė taip pat jau seniai kalbėjo apie galimybę sukurti ištemptą savo A220 versiją – pervadintą C serijos orlaivį, kurį 2017 m. ji atsiėmė iš „Bombardier“." [1]

 

Jūs čia pažaiskite pasiruošimus branduoliniam karui (kurio nėra ir nebus), o likęs pasaulis atims jūsų paskutinį kasnį.


1. Brazilian Aircraft Maker Eyes Jet to Rival Boeing. Tangel, Andrew; Katz, Benjamin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 May 2024: A.1.

Western Cars Are Not the Only Ones Facing Competition: Brazilian Aircraft Maker Eyes Jet to Rival Boeing and Airbus


"With Boeing in the throes of its latest crisis, one of its smaller rivals, Embraer, is exploring options for a new model to challenge the duopoly for large jets that has dominated the industry for almost three decades.

Internal assessments conducted by Embraer have determined that the Brazilian company has the technological know-how and manufacturing might to develop a next-generation narrow-body aircraft, its first in that market segment, people familiar with the company's strategy and planning said. Embraer has a market value of about $5 billion and specializes in regional and business jets.

The plane would compete head-on with the successors to Boeing's 737 MAX and Airbus's A320 in a category that is key for both manufacturers. 

Greenlighting the project would also represent a potentially make-or-break bet: New aircraft programs typically cost tens of billions of dollars to develop, can take more than a decade from inception to entering service and regularly don't get to market.

Gus Kelly, chief executive of AerCap, one of the biggest aircraft lessors, said he wouldn't expect any new Embraer-derived narrow-body jet until the mid-to-late 2030s, much as airlines and lessors might welcome the competition. "I think it's a long shot, to be honest," Kelly said on an investor call Wednesday. "And even if it does come off, I don't think it will be relevant for the next 15 years."

While the plans are still in their infancy and a final decision hasn't been made, Embraer has been laying the groundwork, including assessing potential payload and range requirements. 

Embraer has also sounded out potential financial and industrial partners that the company would need, the people said, including Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund and manufacturing companies in Turkey, India and South Korea.

A spokesman for Embraer said that while the company "certainly has the capability to develop a new narrow-body aircraft," it doesn't have any plans for a sizable new project at this time and is focused on selling its existing models.

Embraer's ambitions have firmed in recent months with Boeing in turmoil after a 737 MAX jet operated by Alaska Airlines lost a fuselage panel midflight, the people said. The accident prompted U.S. air-safety agencies to put limits on Boeing's manufacturing facilities and led to an executive shake-up, including the resignation of Chief Executive David Calhoun by the end of the year.

Boeing doesn't have a firm plan for how it will replace its decades-old 737 line. The company has said it could launch a new aircraft in the middle of the next decade, similar to Airbus's current timeline, but Calhoun has since said that a decision will fall to a future Boeing CEO.

New aircraft programs require long lead times to develop, prepare supply chains and win regulatory signoff. Calhoun has said the company would need about $50 billion to develop a successor to the 737 MAX, cash that the debt-laden manufacturer doesn't have. Boeing, which this past week said it had burned through nearly $4 billion in its most recent quarter, ended 2023 with a net debt of $52.3 billion.

A new model would also mark a satisfying reprisal for Embraer after Boeing unilaterally withdrew from a $4 billion deal to acquire the Brazilian company's commercial-jet business four years ago. Embraer is still awaiting findings from an arbitration it filed at the International Chamber of Commerce after Boeing abandoned the deal.

"I've talked to everyone at Boeing that I can possibly address, and the message is the same: Get your act together," American Airlines CEO Robert Isom -- one of Embraer's biggest customers -- said on a call last week.

He later said that Embraer comparatively has "delivered day in and day out throughout the pandemic no matter the concerns of their supply chain" and that other manufacturers "can learn a lot from them."

Many new aircraft programs don't succeed. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, for example, in 2023 pulled the plug on a 16-year project to develop an all-new regional jet. In 2017, Bombardier was pushed into handing its loss-making C Series aircraft program to Airbus for $1 after Boeing petitioned the U.S. Commerce Department to place heavy import duties on the new model.

Embraer itself doesn't currently manufacture an aircraft that matches the size and range of Boeing's or Airbus's popular narrow-bodies -- jets that are defined by their single aisle and which form the backbone of the global aviation sector. Its largest model, the E2-195 regional jet which entered service in 2018, seats a maximum of 146 passengers compared with a maximum of 172 seats on Boeing's smallest narrow-body, the 737 MAX 7.

Still, the Brazilian company could use aspects of the design and technology from the E2 as the basis for the new aircraft, helping to subsidize some of the billions of costs if it went ahead with an all-new design.

Embraer is still a relatively small player in the world of aircraft manufacturing compared with Boeing and Airbus. The company last year delivered 181 aircraft, with Boeing delivering 528 and Airbus delivering 735 jets to customers.

Airbus has said it is progressing toward bringing its own new narrow-body to the market in the second half of the 2030s.

The European plane maker, the world's biggest, has been exploring multiple options for upgrades that could boost fuel efficiency by 20% to 25% compared with the current A320neo model, including new engine and wing designs. The company has also long touted the possibility of developing a stretched version of its A220 -- the renamed C Series aircraft it picked up from Bombardier in 2017." [1]

You play here preparing for a nuclear war (which doesn't exist and won't happen) and the rest of the world takes your last bite.

1. Brazilian Aircraft Maker Eyes Jet to Rival Boeing. Tangel, Andrew; Katz, Benjamin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 May 2024: A.1.

Amerika, Kinija ir Rusija

  „Bideno metais, kai konfliktai Ukrainoje ir Gazoje, geopolitinėje erdvėje buvo nubrėžta gilesnė demarkacija, kai, grubiai tariant, vienoje pusėje buvo JAV ir Europa, o kitoje – Kinija ir Rusija. Trumpo pergalė gali sujaukti šį žvaigždyną.

 

     Didelis Xi nerimas, anot vadovybei artimų žmonių, yra tai, ar D. Trumpas nesuardys jo „broliškos meilės“ su Vladimiru Putinu. Kai jis buvo Baltuosiuose rūmuose, Trumpas ne kartą siekė priartinti JAV prie Rusijos.

 

     Xi užmezgė asmeninius ryšius su Rusijos lyderiu ir baiminasi, kad jei Trumpas palaikys Putiną, tai gali susilpninti paties Pekino santykius su Maskva, itin svarbia Xi priešpriešos su Vakarais partnere.

 

     Dar blogiau, kai kurie Kinijos strategai sako, kad Trumpas gali pabandyti ištraukti „atvirkštinį Niksoną“. Panašiai, kaip buvęs prezidentas Richardas Niksonas siekė Kinijos atremti Sovietų Sąjungą Šaltojo karo metu, Trumpas gali siekti nukreipti Maskvą prieš Pekiną." [1]


1. Beijing Braces for a Rematch Of Trump vs. China --- Officials prepare for potential of more drama in U.S. relations. Wei, Lingling.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 May 2024: A.1.

America, China and Russia


"The Biden years, with conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, have seen a deeper demarcation in geopolitics, with, roughly speaking, the U.S. and Europe on one side and China and Russia on the other. A Trump win could muddle that constellation.

A big worry for Xi, according to the people close to the leadership, is whether Trump will disrupt his "bromance" with Vladimir Putin. When he was in the White House, Trump repeatedly sought to bring the U.S. closer to Russia.

Xi has cultivated a personal bond with the Russian leader and fears that if Trump cozies up to Putin, it could weaken Beijing's own relationship with Moscow, a crucial partner in Xi's standoff with the West.

Worse, some China strategists say, Trump could try to pull off a "reverse Nixon." Much like former President Richard Nixon sought China out to counter the Soviet Union during the Cold War, Trump might seek to turn Moscow against Beijing." [1]

1. Beijing Braces for a Rematch Of Trump vs. China --- Officials prepare for potential of more drama in U.S. relations. Wei, Lingling.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 May 2024: A.1.

2024 m. gegužės 1 d., trečiadienis

Ar galime apsaugoti mūsų pinigus?

 Branduolinės žiemos niekas neišgyvens. Todėl karas tarp branduolinio NATO ir branduolinių Rusijos/Kinijos yra neįmanomas. Lietuvos elitas renka mūsų pinigus, kad pasiruoštų tokiam būtent, neįmanomam, karui. Kodėl?  

Lietuvos elitas siekia iš mūsų išvilioti pinigus, sekdamas pasakas, kurdamas karo isteriją tik tam. Jie perka daiktus ir paslaugas, kurių mums niekada neprireiks. Gauname logišką išvadą, kad kiekvienas kandidatas į Lietuvos prezidento postą, išskyrus Eduardą Vaitkų, ruošiasi karui, kurio, kaip jie žino, niekada nebus. Jie bando mus apgauti, kad galėtume išsiskirti su mūsų pinigais. Ar bent pabandysime apsaugoti mūsų turtą?

Are we able to protect our own money?

Nobody will survive a nuclear winter. Therefore a war between nuclear NATO and nuclear Russia/China is  impossible. The Lithuanian elite is collecting our money to prepare for such exactly, impossible war. Why?

The Lithuanian elite is out to scam the money from us, spinning fairy tales, hyping war hysteria for this reason only. They are buying stuff and services that we will never need.

We arrive at the logical conclusion that every candidate for the job of Lithuanian president, except for Eduardas Vaitkus, are in preparation for a war that they know will never come. They are trying to deceive us so we might part with our own money.Will we at least try to protect our assets?