"It is an earthquake that changes history"

"Newspapers from New York to Rome are highlighting the rise of the far-right AfD in their articles. The difficult situation for Olaf Scholz and the traffic light coalition is also receiving attention.

 

The American newspaper "New York Times" writes: "The elections in the two former East German states were closely watched in Berlin as an indicator of the growing strength of extremist parties from the left and right, as well as the weakening position of the centrist parties that form the current coalition at the federal level. It was the first time since the Nazi era that a far-right party won a state election. The results are seen as a worrying indicator of the health and future of German democracy and are likely to exacerbate the dilemma over whether and how the established parties can succeed in isolating extremists and preventing them from entering government."

 

The "Wall Street Journal" sums up the situation as follows: "Right-wing extremists are on the verge of a historic election victory in East Germany. The elections in two federal states could bring the first victory for the right-wing extremists in Germany since the end of the Second World War - and a new embarrassment for Olaf Scholz's government."

 

"Le Parisien" from France also sees a problem for the Chancellor and his coalition in particular: "Right-wing extremists win a state election, the first in the post-war period. (...) These results are unprecedented for the party and represent another heavy blow to Olaf Scholz's fragile coalition, as the polls show."

 

"The Economist" from Great Britain classifies the elections in Saxony and Thuringia as follows: "The symbolic nature of the results will carry more weight than their content. It is true that over 40 percent of voters in both states voted for populist parties that sometimes sound like mouthpieces for the Kremlin. But the German states have little influence on the country's foreign policy. Nor can the election results in two small states, whose total population of 6.2 million makes up about 7 percent of the total German population, be seen as a national indicator.”

 

The British newspaper “The Guardian” comments: “The far-right AfD is on the verge of winning a state election in the east. For the first time since the Second World War, a far-right party has become the strongest force in a German state parliament (...), while a new populist force on the left has taken a firm place in the country's political landscape. Voters have made their dissatisfaction with the established parties in Germany clear in two closely watched elections in the formerly communist east.”

 

“La Repubblica” from Italy says: “It is an earthquake that changes history. For the first time since the end of the war, a far-right party has won a state election in Germany. 90 years after Hitler came to power. And in a state, Thuringia, which is notorious for the first time supporting a local government by the Nazis in 1924.”

 

The elections in Saxony and Thuringia are also a topic in Spain. “El Mundo” analyses: “The extreme right is unstoppable in the state elections in Germany: according to polls, it is winning in Thuringia and coming second in Saxony. The AfD is managing to appeal to an electorate that rejects immigration and a policy of hostility towards Russia.”

 

“El País” states: “According to projections, Germany's AfD ultras are winning the election in Thuringia. Björn Höcke, the party's most radical leader, wins first place, but is unlikely to be able to govern. In Saxony, the conservative CDU wins by a narrow margin.”

 

The “Kronenzeitung” from Austria comments: “What both [AfD and BSW, editor's note] have in common is their self-image as “against those at the top” parties. They fired sharp broadsides against the government, especially against the traffic light coalition in Berlin. Both the AfD and the BSW deny them almost any ability to solve problems. They paint the state of the country in the darkest colors and offer themselves as saviors. "Our country is not in good shape," says the BSW's founding manifesto. (...) Without a partner, however, the AfD has only the opposition. The BSW, on the other hand, could soon find itself in a situation where it has to prove itself in government responsibility. Before that, however, oil and water would have to come together: the possible partner CDU is miles away from the BSW's positions."

 

The Swiss "Tages-Anzeiger" commented: "Broad majorities in East Germany do not want just to slow down irregular immigration, but to stop it - and the delivery of weapons to Ukraine as well. Both issues explain the triumph of the right-wing extremist AfD and the new populist group of Sahra Wagenknecht.

 

Together they collect almost half of all votes in Thuringia. Both have succeeded in channeling the discontent with the government in Berlin to their own ends - better than the most important opposition party in Germany, the CDU. Nevertheless, they are also among the winners. Unlike the AfD, which remains isolated in its extremism, the CDU is the last party in the broad center around which governments can still be formed in such conservative regions: In Saxony, Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is holding his own against the AfD, in Thuringia Mario Voigt is in line for the state chancellery - subject to difficult coalition negotiations. For the SPD, the chancellor's party, the first day of the election in the east is a pitch-black affair. If the Social Democrats also go under in Brandenburg in three weeks and their Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke loses his power there, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will also be in trouble. With the federal elections in a year's time, a revolt by the party against him can no longer be ruled out."

 

Finally, the liberal newspaper "Hospodarske noviny" from the Czech Republic writes: "For Björn Höcke, the leading candidate of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Thuringia, it is clear where his first trip abroad would go if he were one day elected Chancellor: to Moscow. (...) The key issues of his election campaign were opposition to further aid for Ukraine, relations with Russia and migration. (...)

 

But Höcke is still a long way from entering the Chancellery. Despite his party's clear election victory in the state, he is unlikely to even become Prime Minister of Thuringia. (...) Because no party at either the state or federal level wants to form a coalition with the AfD. In order to form state governments in Thuringia and Saxony, cooperation between the CDU and Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW will be necessary, even if this is a very unnatural combination."

 

Didžiausia, Bideno sukelta, nelaimė

Kai Bidenas pasirodė Baltuosiuose rūmuose, kaip viršininkas, visi laikėme jį senu Šaltojo karo kariu, pakankamai patyrusiu, kad išlaikytų stabilumui reikalingą pusiausvyrą. Mes klydome. Pražūtingas Bideno pasirodymas debatuose parodė, kad Bidenas yra tik tuščias kiautas. Šou Baltuosiuose rūmuose vedė jauni, energingi, nepatyrę ir, remiantis rezultatais, kvaili patarėjai.

 

Šaltojo karo metais JAV tikslai Vakarų Europoje buvo:

 

„Išlaikyti Rusiją Vakarų Europos išorėje, išlaikyti Vokietiją nugalėta, išlaikyti JAV Vakarų Europos viduje“.

 

Dviejų Vokietijos žemių rinkimų rezultatai rodo, kad p. Bideno patarėjai šį žaidimą pralaimėjo. Dėl šių patarėjų veiksmų dauguma (kraštutinė dešinė ir kraštutinė kairė kartu paėmus) vokiečių šiose žemėse mano, kad laikyti Vokietiją nugalėta jau nėra teisinga, todėl jie nenori nusileisti Vakarų Europoje. Kadangi Vokietija yra didžiausia Vakarų Europos galia, jie gaus tai, ko jie nori. Be to, dauguma šių vokiečių mano, kad dėl įvykių Ukrainoje kalta NATO, kad Rusija turi dalyvauti Vakarų Europos saugumo derybose. „Išlaikyti Rusiją Vakarų Europos išorėje“ išlekia pro langą. Tai kelia abejonių dėl „JAV išlaikymo Vakarų Europos viduje“. Žala Amerikos interesams yra didžiulė.

Biden's Biggest Disaster

When Mr. Biden showed up in White House as a boss, we all considered him as an old Cold warrior experienced enough to keep the balance needed for stability. We were wrong. The disastrous performance of Mr. Biden in debates demonstrated that Mr. Biden is just an empty shell.The show in White house were running young, energetic, inexperienced and, according to the results, stupid, advisers.

The goals of the USA in Western Europe during the Cold war were:

"Keep Russia out, keep Germany down, keep the USA in."

The election results in two German states show that Mr. Biden's advisers lost this game. As a result of these advisers' actions, the majority of Germans (extreme right and extreme left together) in these states think that keeping Germany down is not fair anymore, so they don't want to be down in Western Europe. Since Germany is the biggest power in Western Europe, they will get what they want. Moreover, the majority of these Germans think that the events in Ukraine are NATO's fault, that Russia has to participate in Western Europe's security negotiations. "Keeping Russia out" is going out of the window. This makes "keeping the USA in" questionable. The damage to America's interests is huge.

Izraelio įkaito išgelbėjimas pabrėžia Hamaso tunelių Gazoje iššūkį

 „Didžiulis ir sudėtingas Gazos požeminis tinklas slepia daugelį likusių Hamas lyderių ir yra pagrindinė kliūtis išnaikinti grupuotę.

 

 Antradienį Izraelio kariškiai išgelbėjo įkaitą iš požeminio tunelio Gazos ruože ir tai išryškino vieną didžiausių likusių kliūčių ministro pirmininko Benjamino Netanyahu tikslui išnaikinti „Hamas“: didžiulis ir sudėtingas anklavo požeminis tinklas, slepiantis daugelį likusių kovotojų grupės vadų.

 

 Izraelio kariuomenė antradienį pranešė, kad iš požeminio Hamas tunelio Gazos ruože išgelbėjo spalio 7 d. pagrobtą Izraelio beduinų arabų mažumos narį Farhaną al Qadi. Anot dviejų aukšto rango pareigūnų, kurie norėjo likti anonimiški, nes neturėjo teisės kalbėtis su žurnalistais, atrodo, kad Izraelio pajėgos p. al Qadi rado atsitiktinai, kai šukavo tunelių tinklą, ieškodami Hamas kovotojų.

 

 Tai buvo antras kartas per dvi savaites, kai „Hamas“ tunelių tinklas buvo matomas Izraelio pasakojimuose apie įkaitų ieškojimo pastangas, nušviečiant dažniausiai neregėtą karo aspektą, kuris yra didelis šalies kariškiams ir vyriausybės pareigūnams. Praėjusią savaitę Izraelio kariai pranešė radę šešių įkaitų kūnus, paslėptus už betono pamušalo požeminėje trasoje, sujungtoje su 10 metrų gylio tunelio šachta.

 

 Pasak ekspertų, šie požeminiai atradimai po beveik 11 mėnesių trukusio karo rodo, koks sudėtingas ir platus yra Hamas tunelių tinklas. 

 

Pasak Izraelio, „Hamas“ ir JAV pareigūnų, kai kurie tuneliai yra šimtų mylių ilgio.

 

 „Tuneliai yra didžiuliai“, – sakė Vašingtone esančio strateginių ir tarptautinių studijų centro Karo, nereguliarių grėsmių ir terorizmo programos vyresnysis bendradarbis Danas Bymanas. 

 

Jis pridūrė, kad karas Gazoje atskleidė du netikėtumus apie požeminę sistemą, kurią pastatė „Hamas“, – pridūrė jis: yra daugiau tunelių ir jie yra labiau serpantiniški, nei manyta anksčiau.

 

 Tuneliai tarnauja „Hamas“ įvairiais būdais, sakė J. Bymanas. Grupė ne tik gali juose paslėpti savo lyderius ir įkaitus, bet ir gintis tuneliuose, kur Izraelio pajėgos yra daug labiau pažeidžiamos ir turi judėti labai lėtai, juos paimti yra daug sunkiau, nei paimti virš žemės esantį pastatą.

 

 „Izraelio kariuomenės pranašumas yra didžiulis koordinavimas ir situacijos suvokimas, o tuneliuose tai daug sunkiau“, – sakė jis.

 

 Bandymas sunaikinti požeminę sistemą iš viršaus taip pat yra problematiškas, sakė P. Bymanas, nes tam reikia didelių bombų, kurios pridaro daug žalos ir gali rizikuoti tuneliuose paslėptų įkaitų gyvybėmis. Jis teigė, kad daugelis likusių gyvų įkaitų buvo laikomi pogrindyje, galbūt, kartu su „Hamas“ lyderiais, atsižvelgiant į tai, kad „jie yra labai vertingas turtas“ ir „vienas iš pagrindinių Hamas derybinių žetonų“.

 

 Izraelio kariuomenė per karą išbandė kelias taktikas, siekdama išvaryti Hamas kovotojus ant žemės, įskaitant tunelių užtvindymą ir jų sandarinimą, sakė Karinio jūrų laivyno magistrantūros mokyklos nacionalinio saugumo reikalų profesorius Jamesas Wirtzas. Jie taip pat reguliariai sprogdina tunelio įėjimus ir į juos siunčia šunis, dronus ir robotus, kad nerizikuotų kario gyvybe.

 

 „Tai siaubinga“, - sakė ponas Wirtzas. „Yra posūkiai, šoniniai kambariai ir spąstai. Sunku prašyti kario."

 

 Izraelio kariuomenė pareiškė, kad daro pažangą likviduodama „Hamas“ požeminę infrastruktūrą. Rugpjūčio 15 d. kariškiai pranešė, kad per savaitę sunaikino apie 50 tunelių, ir išplatino vaizdo įrašus, kuriuose kariai sprogdina urvus ir statybines medžiagas teritorijoje prie sienos su Egiptu, kurią Izraelis vadina Filadelfio koridoriumi.

 

 Užtikrinti, kad tie tuneliai ir kiti tuneliai nebūtų atstatyti, buvo esminis klausimas per paliaubų derybas tarp Izraelio ir Hamas. Ponas Netanyahu pareiškė norintis, kad kai kurie Izraelio kariai ir toliau patruliuotų Filadelfio koridoriuje, kad neleistų „Hamas“ persiginkluoti po karo arba atstatyti tunelių į Egiptą.

 

 Jo paskelbtas tikslas yra sunaikinti Hamasą, jo lyderius ir infrastruktūrą, o misija, kurią kai kurie Izraelio karinės bendruomenės nariai sako, yra nereali. Izraelio kariuomenė anksčiau šį mėnesį pranešė, kad per karą nukovė 17 000 kovotojų, tačiau kariai ne kartą kovojo su Hamas atgimimu Gazos regionuose, kuriuos anksčiau buvo paskelbę išvalytomis nuo Hamas kovotojų. Ir kai kurie aukščiausi kovotojų grupės lyderiai išgyveno.

 

 Lapkritį išlaisvintas Izraelio įkaitas aprašė, kaip Yahya Sinwar, „Hamas“ lyderis, kuris dabar yra grupės politinis vadovas, netrukus po spalio 7 d. išpuolių kreipėsi į daugybę belaisvių iš Izraelio, sakydamas, kad jie yra saugūs ir jokios žalos nepadarys jiems. Jungtinės Valstijos ir Izraelis tuo metu sunkiai dirbo, kad surastų ir sučiuptų p. Sinwarą – ir nuo to laiko veltui stengėsi.

 

 Sausio mėnesį Izraelio kariai užpuolė įmantrų tunelių kompleksą pietų Gazos ruože, remdamiesi žvalgybos duomenimis, kad p. Sinwaras ten slapstėsi. Bet jis požeminį bunkerį paliko kelias dienas anksčiau ir lieka laisvėje." [1]

1. Israel’s Hostage Rescue Highlights Challenge of Hamas Tunnels in Gaza. Livni, Ephrat. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Aug 29, 2024.

Israel’s Hostage Rescue Highlights Challenge of Hamas Tunnels in Gaza

"Gaza’s vast and complex subterranean network shelters many of Hamas’s remaining leaders, and is a key obstacle to eradicating the group.

The Israeli military’s rescue of a hostage from an underground tunnel in the Gaza Strip on Tuesday highlighted one of the biggest remaining impediments to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s goal of eradicating Hamas: the enclave’s vast and complicated subterranean network that shelters many of the militant group’s remaining leaders.

Israel’s military said on Tuesday that it had rescued Farhan al-Qadi, a member of Israel’s Bedouin Arab minority who was abducted on Oct. 7, from an underground Hamas tunnel in southern Gaza. According to two senior officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to reporters, Israeli forces appear to have found Mr. al-Qadi by chance as they were combing through a tunnel network for Hamas fighters.

It was the second time in two weeks that Hamas’s network of tunnels featured prominently in Israel’s accounts of hostage recovery efforts, shining some light on a mostly unseen aspect of the war that looms large for the country’s military and government officials. Last week, Israeli troops said they had recovered the bodies of six hostages hidden behind concrete lining in an underground route connected to a 10-meter-deep tunnel shaft.

These underground discoveries after nearly 11 months of war show just how elaborate and extensive Hamas’s tunnel network has turned out to be, experts say. Some of the tunnels are hundreds of miles long, according to Israeli, Hamas and U.S. officials.

“The tunnels are massive,” said Dan Byman, a senior fellow with the Warfare, Irregular Threats, and Terrorism Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. The war in Gaza has revealed two surprises about the subterranean system that Hamas built, he added: There are more tunnels, and they are more serpentine, than previously believed.

The tunnels serve Hamas in multiple ways, Mr. Byman said. Not only can the group hide its leaders and hostages in them, but capturing the tunnels — where Israeli forces are much more vulnerable and have to move very slowly — is far harder than taking a building above ground.

“The advantage of Israel’s military is tremendous coordination and situational awareness, and in tunnels that’s much harder,” he said.

Trying to destroy the subterranean system from above is also problematic, Mr. Byman said, because it takes big bombs that cause a lot of damage and potentially risk the lives of hostages hidden in the tunnels. He posited that many of the remaining living hostages were being held underground, perhaps alongside Hamas leaders, given that “they are a very valuable asset” and “one of Hamas’s chief bargaining chips.”

The Israeli military has tried several tactics during the war to drive Hamas fighters aboveground, including flooding the tunnels and sealing them, said James Wirtz, a professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. They also regularly explode the tunnel entrances, and send dogs, drones and robots inside them to avoid risking the life of a soldier.

“It’s horrible,” Mr. Wirtz said. “There are turns and side rooms and booby traps. It’s a hard thing to ask a soldier to do.”

The Israeli military has said it is making progress in eliminating Hamas’s underground infrastructure. On Aug. 15, the military said it had destroyed about 50 tunnels in a week, and it released video footage of soldiers blowing up burrows and building materials in an area along the border with Egypt that Israel calls the Philadelphi Corridor.

Making sure that those tunnels and others will not be rebuilt has been a critical issue in the cease-fire negotiations being mediated between Israel and Hamas. Mr. Netanyahu has said he wants some Israeli troops to continue to patrol the Philadelphi Corridor to prevent Hamas from rearming after the war or rebuilding tunnels to Egypt.

His stated goal is to eliminate Hamas, its leaders and its infrastructure, a mission that some in the Israeli military community have suggested is unrealistic. The Israeli military earlier this month said it had killed 17,000 militants in the war, but troops have repeatedly battled resurgences in areas of Gaza that it had previously declared cleared of Hamas fighters. And some of the militant group’s top leaders have survived.

In November, a freed Israeli hostage described how Yahya Sinwar, a Hamas leader who is now the group’s political chief, had addressed a large number of Israeli captives underground not long after the Oct. 7 attacks, saying that they were safe and that no harm would come to them. The United States and Israel were working hard at the time to find and capture Mr. Sinwar — and have been trying ever since.

In January, Israeli commandos raided an elaborate tunnel complex in southern Gaza based on intelligence that Mr. Sinwar was hiding there. But he had left the underground bunker days earlier and remains at large." [1]

1. Israel’s Hostage Rescue Highlights Challenge of Hamas Tunnels in Gaza. Livni, Ephrat. New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Aug 29, 2024.