Moscow- Kyiv Talks Point to Possible Off-Ramp

"KHARKIV, Ukraine -- When a Russian-backed offensive dealt a heavy blow to the Ukrainian army in February 2015, Kyiv signed up to a deal that could give Moscow a significant say in Ukraine's future. The so-called Minsk-2 agreement has since remained dormant.

Now, senior Ukrainian and Russian officials are talking about implementing the Minsk-2 accords once again, with France and Germany seeing this process as a possible off-ramp that would allow Russian President Vladimir Putin a face-saving way to de-escalate.

French President Emmanuel Macron is slated to speak with Mr. Putin on Friday as he seeks a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Reviving Minsk-2 -- something that Moscow has long presented as its key goal in Ukraine -- could deliver Mr. Putin a political victory without bloodshed.

Ukraine's national security adviser Andriy Yermak and Russia's point man on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak met with their French and German counterparts to discuss Minsk-2 on Wednesday in Paris, and agreed to meet in Berlin in two weeks. There has been no tangible progress, but the fact that Moscow and Kyiv are negotiating constitutes a positive development, say diplomats and officials.

"Putin is trying to frighten us with a great war, and now we understand that for at least two more weeks there won't be war. As long as the diplomats talk, the guns remain silent," said Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko. He added, however, that he doesn't expect any breakthrough in Berlin because Moscow's and Kyiv's positions are so far apart.

A German official agreed, saying the talks on Minsk-2 could buy time for further diplomacy even if they are unlikely to be fruitful.

Moscow is warning that Kyiv may try to retake the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions that have been controlled by Russian proxies since 2014.

In 2015, the Russian-created armies of the Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics"  broke through Ukrainian lines and encircled a large Ukrainian force in the town of Debaltseve, forcing then-President Petro Poroshenko to accept the Minsk-2 terms. Ukraine agreed to a previous cease-fire deal in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, in 2014.

The joint communique issued in Paris on Wednesday called for an "unconditional observance of the cease-fire," regardless of differences about how to interpret the deal. While large-scale fighting largely has stopped since 2015, artillery and sniper exchanges along the contact line continue daily, with frequent casualties on both sides.

Russia considers the conflict in eastern Ukraine as a civil war, and its key demand all along has been for Kyiv to negotiate with the leadership of the Donetsk and Luhansk republics directly." [1]

 

1. World News: Moscow- Kyiv Talks Point to Possible Off-Ramp
Trofimov, Yaroslav. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 28 Jan 2022: A.7.