"Moscow has put what appear to be final preparations for an invasion of Ukraine by sending medical units to the front, moving to a level of readiness that it hadn't reached in past buildups, some Western defense officials said.
While the moves don't mean an attack is certain, they are prerequisites for battle and have intensified debates among Western allies over Russian President Vladimir Putin's intentions. The U.S. and European allies, particularly Germany and France, appear to be drawing different conclusions from identical intelligence.
The Kremlin's spokesman said there is little optimism in Moscow that the West would accept its demands concerning de-escalating the Ukraine standoff, adding that Mr. Putin would take his time in considering proposals delivered by the U.S. and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization a day earlier.
The U.S. and NATO allies sent written responses to Moscow concerning its demands that would redraw Europe's security architecture by barring former Soviet states from joining NATO and hosting U.S. military bases.
While Washington's proposals expanded on diplomatic efforts to counter fears Mr. Putin is planning an incursion into Ukraine, they didn't address Moscow's core demands.
"There is not much reason for optimism," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Thursday.
Russia has continued diplomatic talks, but reinforced its troops, which now number more than 100,000 near Ukraine.
The Kremlin at times has moved troops into potentially aggressive positions only to draw them back. Western intelligence analysts and politicians generally agree that Mr. Putin is keeping them guessing and on edge, which may be one of his primary objectives.
The U.S. is preparing for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces, while readying for what officials call hybrid attacks -- efforts to subvert the Ukrainian state, sabotage or coercion.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe Mr. Putin is weighing whether an invasion would further his overarching objectives, and is gauging the potential impact of threatened sanctions and a U.S. and allied military response. But intelligence officials are aware that Mr. Putin's calculations are constantly changing.
The U.S., U.K. and Australia have told families of their diplomatic staffs in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, to leave amid fear of a Russian invasion.
In a call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky Thursday, President Biden said the U.S. would respond "decisively" if Russia invades.
German officials say they think a full-scale attack is less likely than a prolonged hybrid war to weaken the government in Kyiv. They worry that what they deem nervous reactions, such as evacuating embassy staff families, could drain resources and political will among diplomats in Ukraine to continue pursuing a solution.
"The U.S. thinks Putin will do a full-blown war. Europeans think he's bluffing," said a senior German official. "Americans are preparing with the sense that it will happen. We don't."" [1]
1. World News: Russia Bolsters Forces on the Front --- Shift of medical units reflects more readiness for invasion of Ukraine, Western officials say
Salama, Vivian. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 28 Jan 2022: A.7.
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