"Since signing a treaty with Moscow
in 1948, Finland has had to learn how to survive as a small nation in the
shadow of a global power.
President Emmanuel Macron of France
invoked a Cold War-era term on Monday, telling reporters on his flight to
Moscow that “Finlandization” of Ukraine was “one of the models on the table”
for defusing tensions with Russia.
On Tuesday, standing alongside
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in Kyiv, Macron denied making the
remark, which appeared to put him at odds with not only the Ukrainians but also
the United States. But the idea is once again being discussed in diplomatic
circles.
The term refers to Finland’s strict
neutrality during the Cold War, enshrined in a 1948 treaty with Moscow when
tensions between the Soviet Union and the West were at a high. The treaty
ensured Finland that unlike other countries in Eastern Europe, it would not
face a Soviet invasion, but in return, it agreed to stay out of NATO and
allowed the giant next door to exercise significant influence over its domestic
and foreign policy.
Ukraine, formerly a part of the
Soviet Union, has increasingly tilted toward the West, economically and politically,
while resisting Russian influence. In 2008, NATO said it planned eventually for
Ukraine to join the alliance, a popular idea within the country, though it has
never actually applied for membership and NATO officials say it would not
happen any time soon.
“Finlandization” would appear to
rule out that possibility, and allow Moscow a heavy hand in Ukrainian affairs.
“All of this goes against what
Ukraine has been striving for,” said Anna Wieslander, director for Northern
Europe at the Atlantic Council. “It would be a big shift from a long-term
political aim of joining NATO and joining the E.U., which is what they have
wanted.”
The arrangement Mr. Macron appeared
to suggest is “a way of solving a problem by making a decision over the head of
the Ukrainians,” said Richard Whitman, an associate fellow at the policy
analysis group Chatham House.
President Biden has said that
nations must be free to choose their own alliances.
President Vladimir V. Putin of
Russia has long maintained that Ukraine and Russia are effectively one country,
with insoluble historic and cultural ties. In 2014, after mass protests forced
out a pro-Russian Ukrainian president, Russia reintegrated Crimea, and
supported a separatist war in eastern Ukraine that is still dragging on.
With Mr. Putin determined to expand
his sphere of influence and undermine a nationalist Ukrainian government, and
the West making it clear it would not go to war against Russia to defend Ukraine,
some experts have argued
that “Finlandization” is the best course Ukraine can take.”
‘Finlandization’ of Lithuania is also on the table thanks to Russia seeking to advance peace and improve economic development in our region.
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