Shocks From Invasion Rattle World Order

"Russia's military incursion deeper into Ukraine is one of those rare events that won't merely affect the world. It will change the world.

By moving further into a sovereign state to bring it under his thumb, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shattered the security architecture that has prevailed in Europe since the end of the Cold War, and no one knows what will take its place.

The ability of the U.S. to do what three consecutive presidents have pledged to do -- clear away other international entanglements to focus on competition with China -- has been undercut again. Military expenditures will likely increase in the West. Economic globalization will be set back.

Meanwhile, fissures that have been lying just beneath the surface in American politics, separating internationalists and neo-isolationists, are becoming more visible, particularly in the Republican Party.

Those are just some of the ripple effects. Like the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the onset of what could become the largest ground warfare in Europe since World War II marks such a departure from the norm that some of its consequences are impossible to know for sure, and some figure to play out in unexpected ways for years to come.

Two effects already seem certain. First, Russia has dramatically accelerated Mr. Putin's long-promised effort to regain some of the influence and territory that the former Soviet Union either owned outright or effectively controlled. That goal alone will affect the psychology of more than a dozen countries scattered across the new, post-Soviet map of Europe. Governments in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will worry they are next on Mr. Putin's list of nearby states to destabilize.

The second effect is that the Western alliance generally, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization specifically, have been newly united and galvanized.

That unity will be tested by the stresses and strains of the weeks and months ahead. If it endures, senior U.S. officials believe, this renewed Western resolve could turn the Ukraine adventure into a giant strategic blunder by Mr. Putin. The depth and durability of the West's cohesion are set to be tested above all in Germany, which has sometimes appeared ambivalent about confronting Mr. Putin.

A key question is whether efforts now under way to isolate Moscow with economic sanctions will drive Russia closer to China in a meaningful way. Those two nations share an interest in building defenses against economic pressures the U.S. can exert as the most powerful force in the current version of the international economy.

The most immediate help China can give Russia is simple relief from the sanctions imposed on Moscow, which are now set to expand and deepen. China and Russia share a motivation to work together to build a kind of parallel international financial system apart from the dollar-denominated, American-dominated one that currently exists. Dreaming of such an outcome and achieving it are two different things, but the dream might have new resonance.

Farther afield, the rumbles from Ukraine could affect such seemingly unrelated matters as the Biden administration's effort to strike a new agreement with Tehran over its nuclear program. If some Russian energy supplies now are cut off from world markets, a pact that opens the spigots wider for Iranian oil could provide important relief. Negotiators already were sounding more optimistic about a deal; their efforts now have new impetus.

More darkly, some officials worry North Korea could seek to take advantage of the Ukraine situation to ramp up its own nuclear-weapons and missile activities.

The impacts of the crisis are being felt at home as well as abroad. Ukraine is renewing the uneasy debate between those who favor an active global role for the U.S. -- fearing that America's interests everywhere will be harmed irreparably if other countries are allowed to exert their will by force -- and others who argue the U.S. should pull back from international responsibilities to focus on the home front.

This is a classic divide in American politics, recently encapsulated by former President Donald Trump's "America First" arguments. Now that impulse is perhaps best illustrated by Ohio GOP Senate candidate J.D. Vance, who has declared that "the Russia-Ukraine border dispute has nothing to do with our national security" and that "our idiot leaders" are letting it distract from problems at home.” [1]

1. The Ukraine Crisis -- CAPITAL JOURNAL: Shocks From Invasion Rattle World Order
Seib, Gerald F. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 25 Feb 2022: A.4.