Lithuania declares war on Belarus

This is what the Polish daily writes. And in Lithuania there is silence about it. No one boasts. Why? We are suffering with new prices, so the start of an expensive economic war against Belarus, along with an economic war against China, is already too much for us. It is not about the resignation of two ministers. It is about unprecedented protests and early Seimas elections. Therefore, those who rule, sit silently, pressing their tails to their rear ends, hoping that we will not notice what they have done here. 

 "The severance of cooperation with Belarus by the Lithuanian railways is the worst sanction ever experienced by Minsk.

On February 1, the cooperation between Lithuanian railways and the Belarusian potash fertilizer company, Belaruśkalij, was severed. Several hundred wagons with potassium chloride sent from Soligorsk were stuck in the port of Klaipėda. All of them are to be withdrawn to Belarus by February 7. Last year of US sanctions, a scandal broke out in Vilnius, which almost ended with the resignation of several ministers, when it turned out that the Belarusian company was still selling its production using the services of Lithuanian state railways.

Belarus also has an agreement with the port in Klaipėda until 2023, through which almost all of the production of the Soligore plant was sold. It concerns over 10 million tons of goods per year. But it will not be able to deliver it there, because after the contract was terminated by the state railways in Lithuania, there are no private companies willing to cooperate.

Latvia has also decided not to contract with Minsk. One of the most important Belarusian exporters has been cut off from the Baltic Sea.

Lithuanian railways have stopped transit transport of Belarusian potash fertilizers. The company will refund the advance payment received. The Belarusian regime is threatening retaliation against Lithuanian business. Lithuanians choose transit through Poland. Orlen too.

- This means that Belarus will lose 1.5-2 billion dollars of profits in 2022. This will cause serious losses to the Belarusian budget and the loss of many markets. The break-up of cooperation by the Lithuanian railways with "Belaruśkalij" is the most painful blow to the Belarusian economy of all the sanctions that Minsk has experienced over the last three decades, says Jarosław Romanczuk, a leading Belarusian economist, to Rzeczpospolita.

The Vilnius office of the leader of the democratic opposition, Swiatlana Cichanouska, which recently led to the termination of cooperation with Belarus by the Norwegian fertilizer manufacturer Yara, contributed to this. The company in Soligore supplied 15 percent of the total of its production annually. So there are, inter alia, China, India and partners who are not afraid of sanctions by the US Ministry of Finance. But how do you get to them? The authorities in Minsk have been arguing for months that in the event of breaking cooperation with Lithuania, they will go to Russian ports. But there, as the daily "Kommersant" has recently established, there is no spare capacity. Besides, on the local market the cards are dealt by a competitor of Belarusians - Uralkali.

Belarus has no way of sending chemical fertilizers abroad, which supply the most foreign currency to the regime's coffers. Lithuanian railways and private Latvian carriers refused to transport. However, they are eager for this product.

For Lukashenka, Belaruśkalij is not only a company whose condition directly determines the life of Soligorsk, a population of over 100,000. It is one of the most important enterprises in the country, which has been contributing to the budget of the entire state for years. In 2020, Belarus earned over 2.4 billion dollars on the sale of potassium chloride, which is almost 10 percent of all Belarusian exports.

Minsk claims that Lithuania will "lose around EUR 1 billion" in breaking cooperation with Belarus and announces court trials. The prime minister of the government controlled by Lukashenka, Raman Halouczanka, also announced a "tough response" on Tuesday. He suggested that restrictions could affect rail transport.

- It can kick out all Lithuanian companies from Belarus, it can also block the transit. It is possible that it will provoke the migration crisis again - adds Romańczuk. - However, I do not think that Lukashenko will soften his policy. He has the support of the Kremlin and participates in geopolitical games."