Russia Can't Fly Without The West --- Sanctions will deny access to plane parts

"Russia's increasing isolation from the West will leave it looking toward China for alternative economic partnerships. Aviation is a prime example: Hit by sanctions, the Russian industry has little choice but to double down on collaboration with its big peer to the East.

Commercial aviation faces ruin in Russia because the U.S. and its allies have blocked the sale of aircraft, parts and technical support. Since the 1990s, Soviet-era aircraft have been replaced by Boeing and Airbus models, with domestically built planes currently making up only 17% of the fleet, Cirium data shows. Without new parts, airlines like Aeroflot and S7 Airlines will eventually need to ground their jets.

How long can they go on? It is hard to say, since these airlines are now banned from most international routes and can cannibalize parts from older jets. Oliver Wyman consultant David Stewart guesses it could take from six months to two years for aircraft availability to be substantially affected.

It cuts both ways. Russia's fleet, represents a stream of "aftermarket" cash for Western manufacturers. Boeing and Airbus have engineering centers there, which have now suspended operations. The U.S. company said it has stopped buying from its Russian partner VSMPO-AVISMA, the supplier of a quarter of the world's titanium -- a key input for airframes. Western lessors own 70% of Russia's 981 jets in service or in storage and have no clear way of repossessing them.

But the hit is deeply asymmetrical. Only 1% of Airbus' and Boeing's order backlogs is affected.

Moscow can refocus on its own aerospace industry, which took the lead in the 1960s "Space Race" and competes toe-to-toe with the West in military aircraft. Russia's outsize engineering talent and materials capabilities, though, have never been successfully deployed to deliver the safety, fuel efficiency and mass production required in modern civil aviation. In 2006, after years of wasted investment, the country's main manufacturers, including Ilyushin, Sukhoi and Tupolev, were put under the United Aircraft Corp. umbrella.

There has been a small revival, in the form of the regional Sukhoi Superjet 100. And starting later this year, the narrow-body Irkut MC-21 should be the country's first real challenger to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737. Yet both use a lot of Western parts and engines: The MC-21 flies geared turbofans built by Connecticut-based Pratt & Whitney. While work to "russify" the plane, including a homegrown engine alternative, is already in the works, it would take decades to scale into a business capable of matching demand.

China, which has invested heavily in a similar plane, the C919, is the obvious partner. For a decade, both countries have collaborated on the CR929, a wide-body jet design. The experience has been bumpy amid power struggles, constant delays and a continuing reliance on Western parts. Now sanctions threaten to permanently derail the project.

Just like weaponizing the monetary system against Moscow, shutting Russia off from high-tech components may entrench the world's partition into two economic blocs. The coincidence of wants between Russia's technology base and China's captive market may prove hard to resist." [1]

1. Russia Can't Fly Without The West --- Sanctions will deny access to plane parts
Sindreu, Jon. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 09 Mar 2022: B.12.