India's Neutrality on Conflict Frustrates U.S. Efforts

"A deputy U.S. national security adviser recently came to New Delhi to press India to take a more forceful stance against Russia. His meeting with the Indian foreign secretary was cordial, stressing the strong ties between Washington and New Delhi.

But Indian officials said they later felt blindsided when in public comments Daleep Singh warned of "consequences" for countries that helped circumvent sanctions. "Such words are never used in diplomacy," one Indian official who was privy to the discussions said. "It came as a surprise."

A day later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov struck a very different tone after a meeting with his Indian counterpart, offering to sell India whatever it wanted to buy.

A succession of U.S. officials who have traveled to New Delhi to persuade India to join Washington in its effort to isolate Moscow have struggled to persuade the country to come off the sidelines. India has stayed neutral, abstaining from United Nations votes to condemn Russia's action and declining to join sanctions. India's position is partly born of necessity: Russia is its largest arms supplier. But it is also the result of lingering mistrust of Washington and an abiding confidence in Moscow's reliability that has been built over decades, Indian officials and analysts said.

During the Cold War, India adopted an official policy of nonalignment, but in reality forged an alliance with Russia, with the bonds growing closer as the U.S. backed rival countries such as Pakistan and imposed a slew of sanctions on New Delhi. Although ties with Washington have warmed over the years and Indian officials see a future in which the country is more closely aligned with the West, they say there remains a strong undercurrent of anti-American sentiment among Indian policy makers that is only reinforced when they are chastised publicly.

U.S. officials played down the comments from Mr. Singh, the U.S. deputy national security adviser for international economics, saying they weren't directed specifically at India and weren't intended as a warning.

Still, Indian officials say remarks like those make them leery of turning their backs on Moscow. After a clash at the country's disputed border with China killed 20 Indian and four Chinese troops in 2020, India's defense minister visited Moscow twice within three months, partly to secure more arms and ammunition to bolster border defenses, an official with direct knowledge of the matter said. In response, Russia supplied more missiles, tank parts and other weapons.

"Many people have the belief that Russian friendship has served India's interests when a crisis has erupted," said Syed Akbaruddin, former Indian permanent representative to the United Nations and dean of the Kautilya School of Public Policy in Hyderabad.

For the West, India is one of the last remaining holdouts among the world's major powers to remain neutral. The country's purchases of oil and other goods could diminish the impact of sanctions designed to cripple the Russian economy. But perhaps more important, the Biden administration sees its relationship with India as one that will determine the future of security in Asia. "This is the one relationship we have to get right," a State Department official said.

India has spent billions of dollars on weapons from Russia, which has been its top arms supplier for decades. Despite efforts to diversify its sourcing, nearly 50% of its imported arms still came from Russia from 2016 to 2020.

In March, India struck a deal with Russia to purchase crude oil at a discount of at least 20% to global benchmark prices. Since sanctions started, Indian refineries have purchased about 16 million barrels of Russian crude oil, with deliveries starting in May. That is close to the total amount imported from Russia in 2021, an Indian official said.

In a virtual meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi this month, President Biden said he didn't believe it was in India's interest to increase imports of Russian oil and reiterated that the U.S. was willing to help India diversify its energy sources.

"I think that, to date, there are certainly areas where we have been disappointed by both China and India's decisions in terms of their reaction overall," said Brian Deese, the director of the White House National Economic Council. "Our message to the Indian government is that the costs and consequences for them of moving into a more explicit strategic alignment with Russia will be significant and long-term."

U.S. officials said the intent of dispatching Mr. Singh, an architect of the administration's sanctions against Russia, to New Delhi was part of an effort to help allies understand the scope of the penalties imposed by the U.S. and European partners. "We don't want anyone to be caught off guard," one administration official said. "We want to talk about compliance with them."

Biden administration officials have been trying to convince their Indian counterparts that the U.S. will be a more reliable arms supplier in its cross-border confrontation with China. U.S. officials have argued that Russian military equipment is unreliable and that it will soon be in short supply.

This month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken acknowledged the complicated history between the U.S. and India and Russia, when he and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin met their Indian counterparts.

"India's relationship with Russia developed over decades, at a time when the United States was not able to be a partner to India," Mr. Blinken said. "Times have changed. Today we are able and willing to be a partner of choice with India." [1]

Recently the minister of Lithuanian foreign affairs Gabrielius Landsbergis visited India. What did he do over there? He was hiding over the corner and peeing quietly. What representative of minuscule country can do in giant India? Nothing else.

1.  The Ukraine Crisis: India's Neutrality on Conflict Frustrates U.S. Efforts
Li, Shan; Roy, Rajesh.
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 28 Apr 2022: A.9.