China Rethinks Military Operation Stance

"China's leadership is growing worried that increased Western military support for Ukraine will weaken Russia, a key partner for Beijing in its heightened competition with the U.S. and its allies.

Ukraine's robust battlefield resistance has prompted a rethink in Beijing, making it more inclined to push for a cease-fire to prevent Russian setbacks, people close to Chinese decision-making said.

The reconsideration has led to Beijing further expanding its economic ties with Moscow. China is looking to increase its imports of Russian oil, gas and farm goods, forge more joint energy partnerships in the Arctic and increase Chinese investment in Russian railways and ports.

Unclear is how this will translate into any changes in Beijing's restraint from providing Moscow with military support -- a possibility highlighted by Secretary of State Antony Blinken's remarks this weekend that Washington had information that Beijing was weighing providing lethal support to Moscow.

Some foreign-policy strategists in Beijing have raised the question of whether China should consider providing military support to Russia for defensive purposes -- a scenario they say could significantly increase the costs of the conflict. That, in turn, could give China some leverage in proposing options to end it.

But such a move would also stir up greater resentment against Xi Jinping's leadership in the West. It couldn't be determined whether the idea is gaining traction in the top leadership.

China's Foreign Ministry on Monday hit back at the U.S. allegations. "It's the U.S. side, not the Chinese side, that's providing an endless flow of weapons," Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said. "The U.S. side isn't qualified to point fingers at China or order China around, and we never accept the U.S. criticizing Sino-Russian relations."

In Turkey on Monday, Mr. Blinken said, "I think China understands what's at risk were it to proceed with providing material support of that kind to Russia."

During a surprise visit to Kyiv, President Biden on Monday announced half a billion dollars of additional assistance to Ukraine, underlining the urgency for Beijing in seeking an end to a military operation that has welded the U.S. and its European allies closer together and that risks irreparably cementing China's rift with the West.

A diminished Russian power gives China an upper hand in the bilateral relationship, potentially leading to more favorable deals, including for energy, for Beijing. Nonetheless, the people close to Chinese decision-making said, Mr. Xi has little interest in seeing Moscow and his counterpart, Vladimir Putin, emerge from the military operation weakened.

To that end, Beijing is pressing for a more active role in trying to end the conflict. Its top foreign-affairs official, Wang Yi, said at the Munich Security Conference this past weekend that Beijing would unveil details of a Chinese peace initiative on Feb. 24.

Washington and Beijing have avoided measures that could escalate the conflict. Beijing has denied it is aiding the Russian effort and said its companies conduct normal trade with Russia. Mr. Biden has long been concerned that giving Ukraine long-range weapons that could strike into Russia would increase the risk of a direct U.S.-Russian confrontation.

"Chinese military support would of course be a serious game-changer in the conflict," said Sergey Radchenko, an international-relations professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

 "It could also be part and parcel of Wang Yi's 'peace plan,' or a call for a cease-fire along the current lines of territorial control by Russia and Ukraine."

Mr. Radchenko added,"The message [to the West] here would be that if we miss the opportunity to freeze things now, China's potential support for Russia will make the military operation much more costly down the road, with potentially dire consequences for Ukraine and for regional stability."

Since Russia started its military operation in Ukraine, China has provided crucial economic and diplomatic support for Moscow.

Beijing's new push for a truce is the latest twist in how Mr. Xi sees China's part in the Russia-Ukraine military operation. After trying to present Beijing as a neutral party to the conflict while rejecting Western calls for it to condemn the Russia, he has now moved toward seeking a more visible role.” [1]

This is significant. Factories and number of people determine the victory in today's determined by drones positional type of military operation. China is a factory of the world. Russia has more people than Mr. Zelensky.

 

1.  World News: China Rethinks Military Operation Stance --- Kyiv's resiliency drives wider economic ties to Russia, consideration of a cease-fire push
Wei, Lingling.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 21 Feb 2023: A.7.