China's Emissions Reversal Is Looking Nearer Than Expected

"China's rollout of renewable energy is accelerating, its investments in the sector growing so large that international climate watchdogs now expect the country's greenhouse-gas emissions to peak years earlier than anticipated -- possibly as soon as this year.

China installed 217 gigawatts worth of solar power last year, according to new government data. That is more than 500 million solar panels and well above the total installed solar capacity of the U.S. Wind-energy additions were 76 gigawatts, more than the rest of the world combined. That amounted to more than 20,000 new turbines across the country, including the world's largest, planted on towers in the sea off China's east coast.

The low-carbon additions, which also included hydropower and nuclear, were for the first time large enough that their power output could cover the entire annual increase in Chinese electricity demand, analysts say. That suggests that coal-fired generation -- which accounts for 70% of the country' overall emissions for the world's biggest polluter -- is set to decline, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency and Lauri Myllyvirta, the Helsinki-based lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.

China's expanding renewables footprint is shaping the global response to climate change. Its companies are the leading manufacturers of clean-energy technology, from solar panels and wind turbines to electric vehicles. 

 That is stoking concerns in the rest of the industrialized world.

At the same time, analysts and officials say, China's deployment of renewables at home is breathing new life into international climate diplomacy. Its rapid emissions growth long provided fodder for critics who said Beijing wasn't committed to fighting climate change or supporting the Paris accord, the landmark climate agreement that calls for governments to attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius over preindustrial temperatures.

Now, analysts and officials say Beijing's efforts are lending momentum Paris process, which requires governments to draft new emissions plans every five years.

"An early peak would have a lot of symbolic value and send a signal to the world that we've turned a corner," said Jan Ivar Korsbakken, a senior researcher at the Oslo-based Center for International Climate and Environmental Research.

In 2020, Chinese leader Xi Jinping said China would have 1,200 gigawatts of solar- and wind-power capacity by the end of this decade. The China Electricity Council forecast last month that capacity would top 1,300 gigawatts by the end of this year.

Once the emissions peak arrives, some analysts expect a plateau to follow. That is a problem, scientists say, because the world's major emitters must sharply cut global emissions this decade to fulfill the Paris accord.

Climate Action Tracker, a scientific consortium that evaluates governments' emissions plans, rates China's current policies "highly insufficient" to meet the Paris accord goal. The actions and policies of the U.S., where emissions have been falling, were graded "insufficient."

China is still building coal-fired power plants. Beijing has been telling Western officials that the new plants won't be as polluting as they fear. They are replacing older, higher-emitting plants, and will run far below full capacity, largely to maintain electric-grid stability as China generates more of its power from intermittent wind and solar.

The exact timing of China's peak depends on factors such as economic growth and weather in the next few years, analysts say. The adoption of electric vehicles is happening so rapidly that analysts say peak gasoline demand in China was already reached last year." [1]

China is selling these technologies to rest of the world. That keeps the market prices so low, that the West is not able to compete. The only thing left for us is to milk goats.

1.World News: China's Emissions Reversal Is Looking Nearer Than Expected. Sha Hua; Dalton, Matthew.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 12 Feb 2024: A.10.