"WINDSOR, Ontario -- Every day, goods valued at about $320 million rumble across the Ambassador Bridge connecting this industrial Canadian city to Detroit. It is so busy that, 2 miles downriver, another six-lane bridge is going up.
The new span's entire $4.5 billion cost is borne by Canada -- a symbol of how much free trade means to this country, and what is at stake in Tuesday's presidential election for America's closest neighbors.
Both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump say they will look for more protections for America as they review the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the pact negotiated by the Trump administration that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement and has proved a boon for all three countries, economists say. Trump's threat to impose new tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S. has set businesses and governments on edge in both Canada and Mexico.
"If the walls go up, we're in trouble," said Dave Cassidy, a former union leader who now advises the Ontario provincial government.
As governments across the world revive trade protectionism, America's neighbors in Canada and Mexico have doubled down on the free flow of goods across borders. Both Canada and Mexico send about 80% of their exports to the U.S., and both have sought free-trade agreements worldwide, including the Trans-Pacific Partnership deal that both countries signed in 2018 with a host of other nations such as Australia, Japan and Vietnam.
Now the wisdom of that bet on free trade is looking shaky.
Trump and Harris have said they would reopen the USMCA in 2026, using a review provision in the trade agreement.
"I will renegotiate to the benefit of our country," Trump said, in a recent TV interview when asked about his plans for USMCA. "We've been screwed by Mexico and by China and by Canada and by the European Union."
Harris generally is viewed as less hawkish on tariffs compared with Trump. But she voted against the USMCA in 2020 and in October posted on X that the trade pact "wasn't sufficient to protect our country and its workers." The Biden administration kept many of Trump's tariffs on China.
"We're going to be dealing with a protectionist president, no matter what," said Flavio Volpe, president of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers' Association, an industry group that represents 250 companies, many of them based in Windsor.
The Harris campaign declined to comment. Trump's campaign didn't respond to a request for comment.
Canada has launched a lobbying effort to protect its $900 billion trade relationship with the U.S. Government ministers, provincial leaders and its ambassador to the U.S., Kirsten Hillman, are courting lawmakers in U.S. states and in Washington to strengthen ties ahead of any USMCA renegotiations.
"USMCA is very important to Canada," Hillman said. Trade between the countries has risen 46% since the deal went into effect in mid-2020. She and her colleagues have met 45 state governors to remind them how deep the trading relationship between the countries runs. "Often that's under-recognized."
In Mexico, the stakes are just as high. The 2,000-mile frontier between the U.S. and Mexico is the world's busiest land border.
When trade-pact consultations begin late next year, negotiators are expected to tackle issues such as trade with China and requirements for increased North American content in goods imported tariff-free into the U.S., Mexican officials say.
If Trump wins, his advisers are expected to pressure Mexico to reopen its energy industry to foreign investment and curtail investment from China, trade analysts said. "Trump is no friend of Mexico," said Luis de la Calle, a former Mexican government official who helped negotiate Nafta.
In 2022, the U.S. launched a trade fight against Mexico, accusing its government of favoring its state-owned utility and oil company at the expense of American businesses. The U.S. is seeking dispute-settlement consultations under the USMCA, a step that could lead to tariffs on a range of Mexican products if no deal is reached.
A trade deal that weakens Mexico's push to regain control of the country's energy sector risks undermining its new president, Claudia Sheinbaum's political standing at home, experts say. But Mexican officials say Mexico can accommodate some U.S. demands to curb Chinese imports and investments that can use Mexico as a back door to circumvent USMCA rules to sell tariff-free products in the U.S. Mexican officials said protecting its vast vehicle-manufacturing industry, which exports to the U.S., is a priority." [1]
Mexican officials are fools too.
1. World News: Canada and Mexico Fear Trade Shift --- Trump and Harris have said they would reopen talks on free-trade pact. Monga, Vipal; Perez, Santiago. Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 01 Nov 2024: A.16.
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