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2026 m. sausio 13 d., antradienis

Warnings of an AI Sell-Off


“There is no European ChatGPT, but many promising AI startups have emerged in the second tier. However, American tech companies are now trying to poach German researchers – or even acquire entire companies.  The first founders are sounding the alarm.

 

Tom Vollmer could be happy and content. His startup, Cofenster, uses artificial intelligence to automate video production for companies.  Its clients include DAX-listed companies such as TUI, Siemens, and Commerzbank, as well as more than 350 medium-sized businesses. Business is going well, says Vollmer. But something is bothering him. "We are currently facing a major sell-off of European AI startups to US tech giants," warns the well-connected founder. Every German startup with good AI researchers and a viable product has either experienced attempts to poach its top employees in the past six months or is even in early-stage acquisition talks with American corporations.

 

"There is a risk of a drain of knowledge, patents, and tax revenue." Vollmer is not alone in this assessment. Numerous founders and investors have confirmed to the F.A.Z. (Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung) in private conversations that many such discussions are taking place – although some also point out that the interest from overseas reflects the positive development of the German AI ecosystem.

 

While Europe and Germany cannot boast a serious competitor in the race for technological dominance in artificial intelligence in the field of large language models, numerous promising startups have been founded in recent years in the second tier. These companies have developed industry- or function-specific AI applications and are enjoying considerable success.  Vollmer fears that the profits from these successes are now threatening to flow to the USA. He sees several reasons for this.

 

Technologies from the United States are viewed critically by large companies, particularly from a data protection perspective. To compete in the European market, American providers therefore need European AI companies that possess the necessary infrastructure and expertise.” Startups need to demonstrate credibility to be integrated into large corporations. Startups that already have large German companies as clients are particularly attractive.

 

In addition, the financing environment in the United States is significantly more dynamic. According to data from the German Startup Association, €3 billion is expected to flow into German AI startups in 2025, one billion more than in the previous year. In the rest of Europe, €7.9 billion is invested in AI startups. In the United States, this figure is projected to reach €144 billion. This also leads to significantly higher company valuations across the Atlantic.

 

For an American tech company, a valuation of €2 billion with revenues of €100 million is still considered conservative, says Vollmer – a revenue multiplier of 20 to 50 for the valuation is realistic in the US. In Europe, it's more like 10 to 20. This makes European AI startups a bargain. The European investment market, on the other hand, has no chance at all. "US giants are already dangling billions of euros in front of European AI startups," says Vollmer.

 

Philipp Adamidis is familiar with the problem. He is the co-founder of Quant Pi. This startup, spun off from the Helmholtz Center for Information Security and Saarland University, offers companies automated risk and performance assessments of AI models. "We have excellent basic research in Germany and incredibly talented people at our universities," he says – who also receive significantly lower salaries than their counterparts in the United States. Who can blame German AI experts for switching to an American company if they can earn many times more there?

 

And Adamidis sees another problem with Germany as a business location. "European companies are much more hesitant to collaborate with startups compared to American ones," he says. German companies often rely on their own engineers, even when it doesn't concern core business areas – and even if external startups have already invested years in research. In the United States, it's completely different. Quant Pi's biggest customers are American tech companies. This is the case for many German AI startups, says Adamidis. Such customer relationships can potentially lead to acquisitions later on – because both sides know and trust each other. European companies are cutting themselves off from access to the most promising startups because they are not collaborating with them early on.

 

And the trend is moving in the wrong direction. According to a survey by the German Startup Association, in 2020, 72 percent of startups had partnerships with established companies. In 2024, that percentage had fallen to 62 percent, and in 2025 it has fallen again: to just 56 percent.

 

However, the fact that German start-ups have a problem with so-called exits is not a new phenomenon. The investors who provide start-ups with early-stage funding to build their businesses want to cash in their shares at some point – that's the basis of their business model. The money from the exit then flows back into the start-up ecosystem. This can create a virtuous cycle with ever-increasing sums of money. But in Germany, this proves difficult. The German stock exchange is not particularly attractive for young tech companies.

 

The second exit option is a sale, but European corporations are significantly more hesitant in this regard than their American counterparts. Between 2018 and 2023, the average annual volume of acquisitions and mergers in the United States amounted to 5.3 percent of GDP, according to an analysis by the venture capital firm Speedinvest and the organizer of the tech conference "Bits & Pretzels". Therefore, quite a few companies sell their start-ups to American companies – or go public on the Nasdaq.

 

In fact, there are already examples of AI company sales. In August, it was announced that the American tech company Nice was acquiring the Düsseldorf-based AI start-up Cognigy for $955 million. Cognigy specializes in AI chatbots for customer service. The Würzburg-based AI company Scoutbee, founded in 2015, was acquired in October by the American SAP competitor Coupa. Last year, the US chip company AMD acquired the Finnish company Silo AI, one of the largest European AI providers, for €665 million. But there are also other signals: the Dutch chip machine manufacturer ASML invested €1.3 billion in the French AI provider Mistral in September.

 

Given the current circumstances, Tom Vollmer can't blame anyone for selling their start-up to a company in the United States. "With sums like that, founders find it hard to say no – especially because of the employees who hold company shares," he says. It's just a shame about the European economy. (Commentary on page 22.)" [1]

 

We are left with no intelligence at all. Neither artificial nor natural. None. 

 

1. 1. Warnungen vor dem KI-Ausverkauf. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung; Frankfurt. 04 Nov 2025: 21. Von Maximilian Sachse, Frankfurt 

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