The fact that the AfD is currently (as of February 2026) still performing very well in opinion polls is due to a combination of persistent dissatisfaction with the government, a focus on emotionally charged issues, and strong mobilization in East Germany.
The main reasons for its continued success are:
High dissatisfaction with the government: A large proportion of voters are dissatisfied with current federal policies and are deliberately voting for the AfD as a protest party. In current polls, the party is achieving nationwide support levels of between 24% and 27%, and is running neck and neck with the CDU/CSU.
Focus on migration and security: Despite political countermeasures, the issue of immigration remains a central driver of support for the AfD. The party benefits from concerns about the strain on accommodation and infrastructure.
Mobilization in the 2026 super election year: With five state elections scheduled for 2026 (Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania), the party is in permanent campaign mode. In Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania in particular, it is polling at around 40%.
Perception as the "original": According to analyses, attempts by other parties to win back voters through similar rhetoric often lead to voters sticking with the "original" (AfD).
Emotional campaigns: The AfD relies heavily on emotions such as anger and disappointment and benefits from a unified public image compared to the seemingly divided other parties.
In the latest INSA poll, the AfD is at 26%, tied with the CDU/CSU. Critics, however, point out that despite these high figures, the party remains isolated, as other parties continue to rule out any cooperation.
Germany's main problems:
There is no cheap Russian energy due to the politicking of the ruling class.
Therefore industry cannot compete and is collapsing.
Without cheap energy, AI cannot develop, which is why robotization is stalling, and Germany is lagging behind the rest of the world.
Debt-backed, reliance on tank production, which is obsolete in the era of drones, is a military and economic dead end.
Those debts are forcing the destruction of a comfortable European way of life, for which citizens will not say thank you.
So, anger and disappointment are only growing. In the next elections, traditional parties must lose power.
These insights aptly reflect the greatest "pains" of modern Germany, which threaten the country's status as the economic engine of Europe:
Energy crisis and industry. Having lost cheap Russian gas, German industry (especially the chemical and metallurgical sectors) is facing an existential question. Energy prices in the country remain among the highest in Europe, which encourages “deindustrialization” – the relocation of companies to the US or China.
Digital and AI lag without cheap energy. Germany is traditionally strong in mechanical engineering, but lags significantly in the areas of software and artificial intelligence. Bureaucracy and strict data protection laws often hinder innovation, so the pace of robotization no longer ensures the former competitive advantage.
Defense and technological change. Although Germany is increasing investment in the military (Zeitenwende), critics agree that the focus on traditional heavy equipment (tanks) can be risky against the background of modern drones and electronic warfare. This is a huge burden on the budget, which limits funds for social needs.
Social discontent. The “debt brake” (Schuldenbremse) does not allow the government to invest freely in infrastructure and social welfare without cutting other areas. This directly feeds political confrontation.
Political consequences. The growing support for non-systemic forces (such as the AfD or BSW) indicates that traditional coalitions ("traffic light" governments) are losing voter confidence. The upcoming elections could fundamentally redraw the political map of Germany.
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