A Great Lesson for Leaders Supporting Contemporary Wars: Tiny Israel overturned the big US Democratic Party wagon in the last US presidential election, as a large part of Democratic voters, out of sympathy for the bombed Palestinians, refused to support Democrats who unconditionally support Israel

Ironically, US support and those bombings were not enough to convince the Palestinians to stop supporting HAMAS. The US Democratic-Israeli alliance lost in two places.

 

This observation about the impact of the Israel-Gaza war on US Democratic results is consistent with recent post-election analyses. In the 2024 US presidential election, Democratic Party support for Israel became a critical factor in Kamala Harris’s defeat by Donald Trump

 

Here are the key facts that support this observation:

 

• DNC “autopsy”: A secret analysis by the Democratic National Committee (DNC) found that the administration’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war was a “net-negative” in the election. Internal data confirmed that the policy alienated progressives, young people, and Arab Americans.

• Voter boycott: Research shows that nearly 30% of voters who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 but did not vote for Harris in 2024 cited a desire to stop the violence in Gaza as their primary reason. In total, about 15 million Democratic voters chose not to vote at all.

• Swing states:

o Michigan: The “uncommitted” movement, which originated here, garnered over 100,000 protest votes in the primary. In the final election, Harris lost support in cities like Dearborn, which has a large Arab community.

o Other states: Trump won all 7 key swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, etc.). It is estimated that Harris lost about 730,000 votes in these six key states, compared to Biden’s 2020 result.

• Youth opinion: As many as 70% of young voters disapproved of the Biden administration’s actions during the war. Polls showed that 30-39% of voters in states like Pennsylvania or Arizona would have been more likely to vote Democratic if the US had limited military support for Israel.

While the economy and inflation remained top issues for most Americans, it was the Gaza war that turned the tide in critical groups essential to a Democratic victory.

 

Palestinian Support for Hamas:

 

• Fluctuations in Support: While support for Hamas in the Gaza Strip has been declining for some time (at around 21% in early 2025) due to the massive destruction and casualties, recent polls show it is recovering.

• Lack of Alternatives: Most Palestinians (around 80%) are demanding the resignation of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, seeing his administration as corrupt and ineffective, leaving Hamas as the main force, which many still see as a symbol of the “resistance.”

• West Bank Sentiment: Ironically, support for Hamas and the armed resistance remains even stronger in the West Bank (around 59%), where the direct impact of the bombing has been less than in Gaza.

Thus, the Democratic Party's alliance with Israel has indeed become a political ballast that has alienated some traditional voters in the United States, but at the same time, US influence and military power have not achieved the goal of changing the political sympathies of Palestinians inside Gaza.