Manifestations of the Revolution in Eastern Europe

 "A. Navalny, who is imprisoned in the colony, lost 8 kg."  

In a small Lithuanian town, a retired man happily takes his only purchase from Maxima supermarket - a small piece of herring with preservatives. After all, soon Easter ...

Revoliucijos Rytų Europoje apraiškos

 "Kolonijoje kalintis A. Navalnas neteko 8 kg svorio."

Mažame Lietuvos miestelyje pensininkas džiugiai išsineša iš Maximos vienintelį pirkinį - mažą gabalėlį silkės su konservantais. Juk greitai Velykos...

What do Lithuanian people think if they are not forced to lie?

 "Šumskas, who presented the study" Lithuanian Society's Impact on Disinformation: Narrative Analysis ", admitted to Delfi that, unlike in previous similar studies, this time it was not intended to impose statements on respondents with or without agreement and did not try to formulate questions in this way. "This time we went with a white sheet. We didn't put those statements on our lips, they were talking, we just started on the road and then the repetition of those narratives was repeated," G. Šumskas emphasized." 

Cognition of the audience provides an opportunity to take preventive work to strengthen resilience to disinformation without waiting for any target group to fall victim to disinformation," the study emphasizes. Its organizer G. Šumskas acknowledged that the selection of cities for the prevailing narratives was not accidental - it was based on the annual "Municipal Welfare Index" compiled by the VPAI, which identifies the challenges of municipal social and physical security, education, viable economic development and demographic situation. That is why, according to the authors, the municipalities for this study were chosen to represent both the self-government of large cities (Klaipeda), large rural municipalities, where the majority are Lithuanians (Kėdainiai district), and those areas where there are many Russians (Visaginas) or representatives of Polish (Šalčininkai) ethnic communities. 

A deeper impression was helped by the fact that the survey was not conducted remotely, but by interviewing people live. "We wanted to touch on ethnically diverse groups, which are more often confronted with hostile information channels, live in certain bubbles, especially in Visaginas, where we have heard stories about vaccinations, where people are just waiting for Sputnik vaccinations," Šumskas added. After analyzing the results of the interviews, the most frequently repeated narratives were identified: COVID-19 destroyed the Lithuanian health system, COVID-19 was manipulated to impose control on the public, Lithuania does not have an independent foreign policy, the Lithuanian education system promotes inappropriate values, the collapse of the Soviet Union did nothing good.  

A representative survey was also conducted by Baltijos tyrimai: 1,004 Lithuanian residents were surveyed when the error did not exceed 3.4 percent. It was the results of this survey that were even more astonishing. Even their own voters are critical until now, it was thought that such negative narratives as distrust of the state, the EU, and a high percentage of assessments in favor of the Russian regime were unpopular in Lithuania. However, the results of the study show a slightly different picture. Of course, the impact of the pandemic was evident. For example, in the group of national policy statements, the most common narrative that negatively evaluates the health care system. 

28 percent 50% of respondents fully agree. agrees in part with the statement that the country's health care system is not functioning and that the COVID-19 pandemic has completely destroyed it. But the frustration spilled over into other issues as well. 

The economic environment of the country is also described negatively. As much as 29 percent. respondents fully agree with the statement that in Lithuania an honest person is not allowed to earn, and another 44 percent. rather agrees with such a statement. 

 Respondents tend to blame a specific political force - the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats for economic failures: in total, as many as 59 percent. agreed with the statement that "the Conservative government robbed people - people's pensions and money went down". The most interesting thing, according to G. Šumskas, is that even 25 percent agreed with such a statement. respondents who identified themselves as TS-LKD voters. 

True, whatever the insights, the most surprising are the general answers. For example, 66% agree with the statement that "Lithuania is unnecessarily angry with its neighbors Belarus and Russia, because deteriorating relations will bring us economic damage". More than half (54%) of the respondents are convinced that "Lithuania does not have an independent domestic policy - everything is dictated by Brussels (European Union)." 

Ką galvoja Lietuvos žmonės, jei jie nepriverčiami meluoti?

"Tyrimą „Lietuvos visuomenės paveikumas dezinformacijai: naratyvų analizė“ pristatęs G. Šumskas „Delfi“ pripažino, kad kitaip, nei ankstesnių panašių tyrimų metu, šį kartą nesiekta primesti teiginių apklausų dalyviams, su kuriais galima būtų sutikti ar nesutikti ir nebandyta formuluoti klausimų taip, kad jie galėtų būti interpretuojami dviprasmiškai. „Šį kartą ėjome su baltu lapu. Ne mes dėjome tuos teiginius į lūpas, jie patys kalbėdavo, mes tik užvesdavome ant kelio ir tada jau pasikartodavo tų naratyvų atkartojimas“, – pabrėžė G. Šumskas.

„Auditorijos pažinimas suteikia galimybę imtis prevencinių atsparumo dezinformacijai stiprinimo darbų nelaukiant, kol kuri nors tikslo grupė taps dezinformacijos auka“, – pabrėžiama tyrime. Jo rengėjas G. Šumskas pripažino, kad miestai vyraujantiems naratyvams nustatyti pasirinkti neatsitiktinai – remtasi VPAI kasmet sudaromu „Savivaldybių gerovės indeksu“, kuriuo nustatomi savivaldybių socialinio ir fizinio saugumo, švietimo, gyvybingos ekonomikos plėtojimo, demografinės situacijos iššūkiai. Būtent todėl, anot autorių, šiam tyrimui savivaldybės pasirinktos taip, kad reprezentuotų tiek didžiųjų miestų savivaldą (Klaipėda), tiek didžiąsias kaimiškas savivaldybes, kuriuose daugumą sudaro lietuvių tautybės asmenys (Kėdainių raj.), tiek tuos rajonus, kur gausu rusų (Visaginas) ar lenkų (Šalčininkai) tautinių bendruomenių atstovų. 

Gilesnį įspūdį susidaryti padėjo tai, kad apklausa vykdyta ne nuotoliniu būdu, o apklausiant žmones gyvai. „Norėjome paliesti etniškai įvairiapuses grupes, kurios dažniau susiduria su priešiškais informaciniais kanalais, gyvena tam tikruose burbuluose, ypač Visaginas, kur girdėjome istorijas apie skiepus, kad ten žmonės tik ir laukia „Sputnik“ skiepų“, – pridūrė G. Šumskas. 

Išanalizavus interviu rezultatus, nustatyti dažniausiai kartojami naratyvai: COVID-19 sugriovė Lietuvos sveikatos sistemą, COVID-19 buvo manipuliuojama siekiant primesti visuomenei kontrolę, Lietuva neturi savarankiškos užsienio politikos, Lietuvos švietimo sistema skatina netinkamas vertybes, Sovietų Sąjungos žlugimas nieko gero neatnešė. 

Tada, 2020 m. lapkričio 7-30 d. buvo surengta ir reprezentatyvi apklausa, kurią atliko „Baltijos tyrimai“: apklausti 1004 Lietuvos gyventojai, kai paklaida neviršijo 3,4 proc. Būtent šios apklausos rezultatai dar labiau pribloškė. Kritiškai žiūri net savi rinkėjai Iki šiol manyta, kad tokie neigiami naratyvai, kaip nepasitikėjimas valstybe, ES, aukštas Rusijos režimui palankių vertinimų procentas Lietuvoje buvo nepopuliarūs. Tačiau tyrimo rezultatai rodo kiek kitokį paveikslą. Žinoma, jautėsi akivaizdi pandemijos įtaka. Pavyzdžiui, nacionalinės politikos teiginių grupėje labiausiai paplitęs pasakojimas, neigiamai vertinantis sveikatos apsaugos sistemą. 28 proc. respondentų visiškai sutinka ir 50 proc. iš dalies sutinka su teiginiu, jog šalyje neveikia sveikatos apsaugos sistema, o COVID-19 pandemija ją visiškai sužlugdė. Tačiau nusivylimas išsiliejo ir per kitus klausimus. Ekonominė šalies aplinka taip pat apibūdinama neigiamai.

 Net 29 proc. respondentų visiškai sutinka su teiginiu, kad Lietuvoje sąžiningam žmogui neleidžiama uždirbti, o dar 44 proc. su tokiu teiginiu greičiau sutinka.

Dėl ekonominių nesėkmių respondentai linkę kaltinti konkrečią politinę jėgą – Tėvynės sąjungą-Lietuvos krikščionis demokratus: bendrai net 59 proc. sutiko su teiginiu, kad „konservatorių valdžia apvogė žmones – nuvertėjo žmonių pensijos, pinigai“. Įdomiausia, anot G. Šumsko, kad su tokiu teiginiu sutiko net 25 proc. apklaustųjų, kurie save įvardijo kaip TS-LKD rinkėjus.

Tiesa, kad ir kokie būtų pjūviai, labiausiai stebinti gali bendri atsakymai. Pavyzdžiui, su teiginiu, kad „Lietuva be reikalo pykstasi su kaimyninėmis Baltarusija ir Rusija, nes blogėjantys santykiai mums atneš ekonominės žalos“ sutinka net 66 proc. apklaustųjų, daugiau kaip pusė (54 proc.) įsitikinę, kad „Lietuva neturi savarankiškos vidaus politikos – viską diktuoja Briuselis (Europos Sąjunga)."

Mūsų laikotarpio tolimų nuotolių prekybos istorija

„Konteinerių laivai leido nebrangiai perkelti dalis ir komponentus iš vienos šalies į kitą, tuo tarpu technologijos, kurias netrukus spartino internetas, leido vadovams prižiūrėti savo tiekimo grandines iš toli esančios būstinės. Du verslo veiksniai paskatino šį pramonės perskirstymą. Vienas iš jų buvo atlyginimai: Kinijos ar Meksikos gamyklų darbuotojų ir Vakarų Europos, Japonijos ar Šiaurės Amerikos darbo užmokesčio skirtumas buvo toks didelis, kad net jei mažai uždirbantys darbuotojai per valandą padarydavo daug mažiau, gamindami Šanchajuje, nei Sent Luise, tai vistiek tokia padėtis turėjo finansinę prasmę. 

Kita buvo masto ekonomija. Gamyklos, aptarnaujančios visą pasaulį, galėtų specializuotis, gamindamos milžinišką produktų kiekį ir sumažindamos kiekvieno gaminio kainą. Užsienio investicijos kadaise buvo glaudžiai susijusios su eksportu ir importu. Tačiau perduodant užsakymą grandinės viršuje esančiai įmonei, dažnai prekės ženklosavininkei ant galutinio produkto, nereikėjo investuoti didelių investicijų tose šalyse, kuriose ji norėjo gaminti komponentus ar gatavus gaminius. Įmonės galėjo pigiai kurti tiekimo grandines, sudarydamos sutartis su kitomis įmonėmis atlikti gamybos darbus, o ne susieti savo akcininkų kapitalą gamyklose ir įrengimuose. 

Globalizacija, kuri, be abejo, prasidėjo pramoninio kapitalizmo augimu apie 1830 m., niekada taip neatrodė. Daugianacionalinių korporacijų vadovai buvo pakerėti žadėtomis santaupomis, perkeliant gamybą į užsienį. Gamyklos Europoje, Japonijoje, Kanadoje ir Jungtinėse Valstijose uždarė duris, kai įmonės vaikėsi mažesnių išlaidų. Nuo aštuntojo dešimtmečio antrosios pusės ir du dešimtmečius po to prekyba pagamintomis prekėmis augo dvigubai greičiau, nei pasaulio ekonomika.

 Vargu ar buvo atkreiptas dėmesys į riziką, kylančią dėl firmų, galinčių dalyvauti, gaminant ir pristatant bet kurį produktą, skaičiaus. Galimas pajamų praradimas, jei tiekimo grandinė laiku nepristatė prekių, buvo tiesiog ignoruojamas. Tiekimo grandinės viršuje esanti įmonė dažnai menkai suvokia tiekėjų tiekėjus ar juos jungiančią transporto sistemą. Incidentas po incidento - nuo JAV ir Kanados sienos uždarymo po rugsėjo 11 d. iki žemės drebėjimo, kuris suluošino šimtus Japonijos automobilių dalių gamyklų 2011 m., iki su pandemija susijusių gamyklų uždarymo 2020 m., parodė, kad ilgos tiekimo grandinės yra trapesnės, nei įsivaizduota. 

 Daugeliui firmų pasekmės gali būti skaudžios, net mirtinos. Verslo rizika neapsiriboja tik trikdžiais. Garsios firmos matė, kad jų vardus sugadino skandalai, susiję su darbo sąlygomis arba aplinkosaugos praktika, aptemdžiusias įmones toli nuo jų tiekimo grandinės. Kai vartotojai Europoje ir Šiaurės Amerikoje, susirūpinę dėl represijų dėl uigūrų mažumos Kinijoje, pareikalavo, kad drabužių kompanijos atskleistų, ar jų drabužiuose yra Sindziango provincijoje užaugintos medvilnės, daugelis bendrovių, kurios buvo gerai pašalintos iš gamybos proceso, nežinojo. 

Tuo tarpu tokie dideli konteineriniai laivai kaip „Ever Given“, kurie per pastaruosius kelerius metus pateko į pasaulio laivyną, ilgas vertės grandines padarė dar problemiškesnes. Šie laivai, kai kurie gabena net 12 000 sunkvežimių, plaukia lėčiau, nei jų pirmtakai. Pakrovimo ir iškrovimo sudėtingumas dažnai lemia jų atsilikimą, o viename laive ir iš jo perkeltų dėžių skaičius sujaukia uostus ir pavėlina pristatymą. Taigi tarpmiestinė prekyba vyksta lėčiau ir mažiau patikimai, nei prieš du dešimtmečius. Tai padeda paaiškinti, kodėl pagamintų prekių eksportas sudaro mažesnę pasaulio ekonominės produkcijos dalį, nei 2008 m." 

Turtingose ​​šalyse politiškai tolimoji prekyba nebėra tvari. 

History of our time long-distance trade

 "Container ships made it possible to move parts and components from one country to another at low cost, while technology, soon accelerated by the internet, allowed managers to oversee their supply chains from a headquarters far away.

Two factors drove this redistribution of industry. One was wages: The gap between the pay of factory workers in China or Mexico and those in Western Europe, Japan or North America yawned so wide that even if the low-wage workers accomplished far less in an hour of work, producing in Shanghai rather than in St. Louis made financial sense. The other was economies of scale. Factories serving the entire world could specialize, making a small array of products in enormous volume and lowering the cost of each unit.

Foreign investment was once intimately related to exporting and importing. But with outsourcing, there was no need for the company at the top of the chain — often, the brand name on the final product — to undertake large investments in the countries where it wanted its components or its finished goods produced. Firms could build supply chains on the cheap, contracting with other companies to do the manufacturing work rather than tying up their shareholders’ capital in plants and equipment.

Globalization, which arguably dates to the rise of industrial capitalism around 1830, never looked like this before. Executives of multinational corporations were transfixed by the promised savings from shifting production abroad. Factories in Europe, Japan, Canada and the United States closed their doors as companies chased lower costs. Starting in the second half of the 1980s and for two decades after, trade in manufactured goods grew twice as fast as the global economy.
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Hardly any attention was paid to the risks arising from the number of firms that might be involved in making and delivering any given product. The potential loss of revenue if the supply chain failed to deliver goods on time was simply ignored.

The company at the top of a supply chain often has little insight into its suppliers’ suppliers or into the transportation system that connects them. Incident after incident — from the shutdown of the U.S.-Canada border after 9/11 to the earthquake that crippled hundreds of Japanese auto parts plants in 2011 to pandemic-related factory closures in 2020 — has shown long supply chains to be more fragile than imagined. For many firms, the consequences can be painful, even fatal.

And the business risks are not limited to disruption. Famous firms have seen their names tarnished by scandals involving working conditions or environmental practices at obscure companies far down their supply chains. When consumers in Europe and North America, concerned about repression of the Uyghur minority in China, demanded that apparel companies disclose whether their clothing contained cotton grown in Xinjiang province, many companies, well removed from the production process, did not know.

Meanwhile, the ultralarge container ships like Ever Given that have entered the world’s fleet over the past few years have made long value chains even more problematic. These vessels, some carrying as much cargo as 12,000 trucks, steam more slowly than their predecessors. The complexity of loading and unloading often puts them behind schedule, and the sheer number of boxes moved on and off a single ship tangles ports and delays deliveries.

So long-distance trade is slower and less reliable than it was two decades ago. That helps explain why exports of manufactured goods account for a smaller share of the world’s economic output than they did in 2008."

Politically long-distance trade is not sustainable anymore in rich countries.

Who are our conservatives?

 "The factor of public discord and sharp divisions provoked by the Lithuanian authorities is a group of issues related to the Istanbul Convention and other issues related to this topic. It needs to be fully publicly, calmly and culturally discussed and resolved, but these are issues of collective consensus, are adopted by consensus, not by bulldozer pushing laws and dividing society into intelligent and foolish. 

The TS-LKD maneuvered skillfully and seemed to many before the election to be just the ideas of the Freedom Party, which represents a very small group of voters. However, the formation of the coalition suddenly revealed that these are almost the main issues on the political agenda of the ruling coalition. Many voters felt cheated: what are those our conservatives? If you have noticed, I have deliberately avoided the word 'conservatives' up to this point, because it is time to say loud and clear that the TS-LKD are not conservatives, but the truest new Marxists. Like the Freedom Party and the Liberals who support it. 

 This will require a little look at history. Classical Marxism defines a revolutionary struggle in which workers overthrow capitalism and take control of the means of production, while neo-Marxism focuses on so-called cultural wars. Neo-Marxist ideologues gathered at a school in Frankfurt, Germany, in the 1930s to realize that Westerners would never climb barricades, so all attention was focused on the cultural rather than the economic movement and all hatred was directed at traditional Western values. The Frankfurt School formulated the basic idea that the most effective way was to penetrate, take control, and destroy the institutions on which the survival of capitalism depended. 

The most important targets of the cultural war became the institutions shaping the mentality of the society - schools, universities, media, family, church, professional associations. Western universities are no longer guided by impartial ideals of education, balanced scientific knowledge and approaches based on rationality and reason. They became bastions of cultural war, teaching politically correct ideology and "right" thinking. Our, Lithuanian, universities are already on this path. 

 All the civilizations of the past have been based on sets of rules that define what is moral. Their goal was the stability of the nation. Western civilization, which we longed for for five decades and fought for, was based on Christianity and the Ten Commandments of God. The attack against this system has reached its culmination and is now most loudly shouted and set by the neo-Marxist non-martyrs, who are most clearly represented in Lithuania by the Freedom Party, and are supported by a large part of the TS-LKD. 

We already have a generation of easily manipulated and influenced young people with the right to vote. The standard of truth, which is acceptable to the majority, is now being abolished, as new pseudo-types have been invented about racism, diversity, discrimination, tolerance, climate change, which are openly raping society. How are our "conservatives" behaving and what is happening in Lithuania? 

One of the most threatening signs is that state power is being grown in all areas and society is being pressured into a corner. After all, in the beginning we believed in a free market and self-regulation, which is a feature of democracy and a mature society. Instead of implementing it more widely, we are sinking into a dictatorship that our academics are increasingly zealously justifying. 

"The Istanbul Convention is an international document and its ratification in the Seimas must not depend on the level of imagination and knowledge of ordinary Lithuanian citizens about domestic violence and gender equality," says Dalia Leinartė, a VMU professor who builds globalism and neo-Marxist ideology über alles. Our scientists and professors, in creating contemptuous works and, as a result, eating at the expense of various foundations, do not even question the completely anti-scientific and absurd ideological construct of cultural Marxism "social sex" and other inventions. So-called political scientists also sit calm in the water, because they also get a lot from the same bills, and the employers are the same - the political conjuncture and the imported ideology. It's sad to see, but practically all of our intelligence is caught up in easy money and we have a new type - Collaborator 2.0. 

The actions of those we used to call conservatives for 100 days and later show that they meet all the characteristics of purebred neo-Marxists. First of all, they do not believe in discussion, dialogue and the evolution of society. They are convinced that all the things they deem necessary to change can be changed when they come to power, in the most brutal way. We can clearly see that they are obsessed  with new prohibitions and restrictions and still think they are empowered to moralize and judge.

 Here, MEP Andrius Kubilius behaves like a typical Soviet-era bureaucrat, stressing that “I am the boss, you are the stupid” and asks: “When will Lithuania have a“ strategy to arrest the darkness?” people guided by the values on which the entire Western civilization is built, A. Kubilius calls them "representatives of the darkness". We see the completely open ideological hostility of the TS-LKD not only to its previous policy, but also to traditional conservatism."