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2022 m. birželio 23 d., ketvirtadienis

Singapore's Industrial Boom Is Powered By Robots --- To reverse manufacturing decline, the country turned to automation


"SINGAPORE -- The factory floor at GlobalFoundries Inc.'s Fab 7 beeps, whooshes and whirs -- the sounds of robotic arms and other machines making chips for smartphones and cars. It is among the semiconductor maker's most advanced facilities, and few of its 350-odd manufacturing steps require humans.

In courting factories like this, Singapore has become a rare wealthy country to reverse its manufacturing downturn. The city-state had faced industrial decline, with World Bank figures showing manufacturing falling to 18% of gross domestic product in 2013, from 27% in 2005.

Then manufacturing made a comeback in Singapore, rising to 21% of GDP in 2020, according to the World Bank's latest figures. Singapore government data shows manufacturing made up 22% of its GDP in 2021.

General Electric Co. this year began using 3-D printing machines in Singapore to repair jet-engine blades. German semiconductor-wafer maker Siltronic AG and Taiwan's United Microelectronics Corp. are building major new facilities here. Norway-based solar-panel maker REC Group uses advanced lasers in its Singapore facilities to split photovoltaic cells. Multinational companies are producing laboratory tools for DNA testing here.

Singapore has aggressively wooed highly automated factories with tax breaks, research partnerships, subsidized worker training and grants to local manufacturers to upgrade operations to better support multinational companies, among other enticements.

There's a caveat: Singapore's success has come by automating away many jobs. It has more factory robots per employee than any country other than South Korea, according to the International Federation of Robotics.

The manufacturing sector's share of Singapore's employment declined to 12.3% last year from 15.5% in 2013. The number of manufacturing workers has shrunk for eight years straight.

The country of 5.5 million people has long relied on migrant labor to bolster its worker ranks, so unlinking factories from jobs offers an economic benefit without hurting local employment rates. Singapore's unemployment has remained steady over the last decade at around 2%, with a higher share of workers employed in the services industry.

For populous countries such as the U.S., which want the manufacturing industry to create jobs as well as products, this highly automated model could prove unpopular. But Singapore's economy and labor market are well suited to this approach.

"Singapore is capital-intensive, it's skills-intensive, it's not labor-intensive," said Bicky Bhangu, President, Rolls-Royce Southeast Asia, Pacific and Korea. The U.K. aerospace company's Singapore factory produces 4,800 titanium wide-chord fan blades a year with a staff of around 200 workers.

BioNTech SE, the German vaccine maker, announced in May 2021 that it would build a new plant in Singapore to produce several hundred million Covid-19 vaccine doses a year. It plans a workforce of up to 80, including the corporate office. It cited Singapore's talent base and good business climate as reasons for setting up.

Vacuum cleaner maker Dyson Ltd. has developed automated manufacturing processes here, with more than 300 robots assembling millions of vacuum motors, overseen by a small number of operators and engineers. "It is the availability of engineering and scientific skillsets as well as quality of manufactured product that determines where we site Dyson's operations," said Michelle Shi, its chief supply-chain officer.

At life-science-technology firm 10X Genomics Inc.'s Singapore unit, liquid-dispensing robots pipette tiny quantities of chemical reagents into tubes, handing them off to robotic arms that plug on caps and box the tubes for shipment. The U.S. company said it set up in Singapore because of the country's talent pool and manufacturing expertise.

Since Singapore became independent in 1965, the tropical-island country with few natural resources has sought industries in which it can be globally competitive. It found success making items ranging from matches and fish hooks to Ford automobiles. But production moved on as wages rose.

A Jardine Cycle & Carriage factory producing Mercedes-Benz cars ceased operations in the late 1970s and became a residential-property development. In 1980, Ford stopped production at its Singapore factory, now a World War II museum. By the late 2000s Singapore was best known as a financial hub as it saw a decline in manufacturing that rich nations have been experiencing for decades.

Now, Singapore is set to make cars again. Hyundai Motor Group says the manufacturing system it is building here for electric cars will use human power "only where necessary." It says it chose Singapore because the country has a superb talent pool, top research institutes and a supportive government.

"Modern factories require much less land and labor," said deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat at an industry event last year. "This has made manufacturing activities previously unthinkable in Singapore possible again."

In the U.S., manufacturing has settled at around 11% of the economy, 1 percentage point down from a decade ago and 4 percentage points lower than in 2000. Western countries including the U.K., France, Germany and Spain have faced declines.

The loss has been less pronounced in Asia's developed countries, although South Korea and Japan have experienced gradual declines or stagnation, World Bank data shows.

The pandemic made automation a greater priority for businesses world-wide, which learned that fewer floor workers made it easier to maintain production during lockdowns. After restrictions ended, manufacturers have embraced automation to compensate for labor shortages.

Singapore received $8.5 billion in fixed-asset investment commitments in 2021 and around $12.5 billion the year before. Its policy makers say they aren't competing to bring back low-cost manufacturing, focusing instead on products such as chips and aircraft avionics requiring advanced machinery and highly educated technicians. It is the world's fourth-largest exporter of high-tech goods, according to the World Bank. The top three are China, Germany and South Korea. The U.S. is fifth.

Business executives say Singapore has succeeded because it has a welcoming, low-tax government and a strong base of English-speaking science, engineering and mathematics graduates and manufacturing managers. Relatively loose immigration laws make it easy to hire foreign engineers. The government gives grants to improve operations at local companies that work with multinational corporations, and it forms partnerships with the multinationals on labor-saving technology.

The density of tech talent means ideas and production methods spread throughout the city -- biotech companies eager to improve manufacturing productivity sometimes poach chip-factory employees. The government has set up agencies to improve manufacturing efficiency and integrate new production methods like 3-D printing.

Singapore's central location in Asia makes it easy to import raw materials and other goods from the region. Because Singapore has a wide web of free-trade agreements, companies can easily export anything they build in Singapore.

Government scientists helped Rolls-Royce introduce chemical-spraying robots into a Singapore factory that makes airplane-engine fan blades. A local supplier helped Rolls-Royce create a stable of new foundry robots in 2018 that maneuver fan blades into hot furnaces to shape their internal geometry, replacing human teams in full-body protection suits who did this work previously in Singapore.

Executives also say they trust intellectual-property protection laws in Singapore, unlike in places like China where they sometimes worry their partners will copy their products.

At GlobalFoundries' factory -- it makes chips for high-resolution touch screens and smartphones, and sensors and safety features for cars -- hundreds of automated vehicles move pizza-sized containers of silicon wafers along a roughly seven-mile stretch of tracks on the ceiling. Upon reaching their programmed destination, they hoist the wafer pods down to processing machines.

Other wafer-toting robots operate on the ground, lifting and depositing their cargo before docking at charging stations. "They are more reliable than people," said Jimmy Lo, deputy director of fab operations. GlobalFoundries is embarking on a $4 billion expansion of its Singapore operations.

Manufacturing is becoming a white-collar profession in Singapore. The country's manufacturing labor force has declined by almost 18% between 2014 and 2021. But the share of manufacturing jobs held by resident workers classified as high-skill -- professionals, managers, executives, and technicians -- has risen by 8 percentage points to 74% last year, said Damian Chan, executive vice president of the government's Economic Development Board. He said the manufacturing value added for each worker -- a measure of productivity -- doubled between 2014 and 2021, to around $230,000, thanks in part to automation.

"Higher productivity is actually the main way we see that we can sustainably increase wages in Singapore," he said. "Even a slightly declining manufacturing manpower in Singapore is not a bad thing," Mr. Chan added. "Because of automation then there is less foreign workers."

As of December, it had 207,000 foreign manufacturing workers, down from around 281,000 in 2013. Foreigners were 46% of Singapore's manufacturing employment last year, down from 52% in 2013.

Many foreigners head back to their countries after their jobs disappear, as the right to live in Singapore is tied to job status for many nonresidents. So they don't show up in the country's unemployment rate.

Even paper bags for takeout orders -- which many rich countries typically import -- are local. At an automated bag factory that a local company, Print Lab Pte., began operating in Singapore last month, cartons of paper go into a school-bus-sized machine that cuts, folds, and handles it, producing completed bags.

A push for high-tech production helped persuade Silicon Valley-based HP Inc. to open a new manufacturing facility in 2017 in Singapore for print heads, which dispense ink from cartridges to paper. Four years earlier, it had relocated the labor-intensive process of manufacturing lower-complexity print heads from Singapore to cheaper Malaysia. But it stuck with Singapore to make industrial print heads used in commercial printers for products such as books and posters. At the facility's grand opening, robots poured guests glasses of wine.

Technological advances mean robotic arms that once could move in only one or two directions can now make nearly the same rotations as the human hand, equipping them for a much wider range of tasks. That dexterity is on display on HP's production lines: A robot arm clutches a tab of adhesive liner and another peels from it, placing the sticky side on a cartridge to prevent ink from leaking.

"Imagine doing that job eight hours a day," said Steve Connor, HP's global head of inkjet supply operations. HP said the two robotic manufacturing lines in Singapore decreased manufacturing costs by 20%, compared with previous production methods.

The robots work 24 hours a day and are precise, leading to higher yield and fewer errors, said Mr. Connor. Small automated vehicles bearing trays collect batches of completed cartridges and deposit them while blaring Star Wars theme music, to make sure humans don't trip over them -- not that the music seems necessary. "I walk in here and go 'Where are all the people?' " said Mr. Connor.

The company has retrained staff to work with the machines, tapping into government grants that subsidize training by lecturers from the city's technical-training institutes. Operators who once loaded materials are taught to troubleshoot and fix basic mechanical problems. Some staff that once used microscopes to inspect cartridges for defects now train robots to do that. The humans verify that cartridges rejected by the robots actually have problems, helping to hone robotic judgment.

At another Singapore factory, 3-D printers print out some of their own parts, said Ng Tian Chong, HP's managing director for greater Asia: "Our 3-D printer actually gives birth to itself."" [1]

1. Singapore's Industrial Boom Is Powered By Robots --- To reverse manufacturing decline, the country turned to automation
Emont, Jon. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 23 June 2022: A.1.

 

Paciento su transplantuota kiaulės širdimi mirtis tebėra paslaptis

„Gydytojai negali visiškai paaiškinti pirmojo genetiškai modifikuotos kiaulės širdies recipiento mirties, tačiau naujame tyrime jie pasiūlė keletą teorijų ir teigė, kad klinikiniai kiaulės organų transplantacijos tyrimai turėtų prasidėti, nepaisant besitęsiančios paslapties.

 

    Davidas Bennettas, 57 metų meistras iš Hagerstauno, Md., sausio mėnesį gavo širdį eksperimentinės operacijos metu Merilendo universiteto medicinos centre Baltimorėje ir po dviejų mėnesių mirė. Operacija – bandymas pratęsti beviltiškai sergančio paciento, kuris ištisas savaites buvo gyvas aparate, perėmusiame jo širdies ir plaučių funkcijas, gyvenimą, atlikta po to, kai JAV maisto ir vaistų administracija išdavė specialų skubų leidimą.

 

    Tyrimo, trečiadienį paskelbto New England Journal of Medicine, autoriai M. Bennetto mirtį priskyrė širdies nepakankamumui. Tačiau jie negalėjo tiksliai nustatyti, kodėl po septynių savaičių kiaulės širdis sustorėjo ir prarado siurbimo gebėjimą.

 

    „Tai vis dar paslaptis“, – sakė Merilendo universiteto medicinos mokyklos chirurgijos profesorius ir vienas iš šio straipsnio autorių Muhammadas M. Mohiuddinas.

 

    Vienas iš galimų paaiškinimų, kaip teigia mokslininkai, yra tai, kad persodintą kiaulės širdį užpuolė žmogaus antikūnai, skirti J. Bennettui, siekiant gydyti infekcijas.

 

    Kitas galimas jo mirties veiksnys galėjo būti laikinas gydymo imunitetą slopinančiais vaistais, kurie buvo skirti siekiant išvengti kiaulės širdies atmetimo, nutraukimas. Jie teigė, kad nutraukus gydymą, kurį lėmė staigus jo pono Bennetto baltųjų kraujo kūnelių skaičiaus sumažėjimas, širdis galėjo būti pažeidžiama atmetimui.

 

    Kitas galimas paaiškinimas buvo tas, kad P. Bennettui duota kiaulės širdis buvo pažeista kiaulių viruso, kuris buvo aptiktas praėjus maždaug 20 dienų po operacijos. Anot tyrėjų, nėra įrodymų, kad virusas užkrėtė J. Bennettą, tačiau jo buvimas kiaulės širdyje galėjo sukelti uždegimą, prisidėjusį prie įvykių, lėmusių jo mirtį, kaskados.

 

    Ankstesni tyrimai, susiję su kiaulių organų transplantacija babuinams, parodė, kad ilgalaikį gyvūno recipiento išgyvenimą gali apriboti kiaulių citomegalovirusas arba CMV, virusas, rastas širdyje, kurį gavo P. Bennett.

 

    Mokslininkai, atliekantys tarprūšinių organų transplantacijos arba ksenotransplantacijos eksperimentus, teigė, kad tai, kad J. Bennetto kūnas iš karto neatmetė širdies ir kad jis gyveno du mėnesius po operacijos, rodo, kad dabar prasminga pradėti klinikinį tyrimą.

 

    „P. Bennetto gyvenimas turėtų paspartinti perėjimą prie išbandymų, o ne leisti, kad mirtis sulėtintų reikalus“, – sakė daktaras Allanas Kirkas, Duke universiteto Medicinos mokyklos chirurgijos vadovas ir transplantacijos chirurgas, kuris nedalyvavo M. Bennetto operacijoje. 

 

„Klausimas, sulaikantis lauką, buvo, ar kiaulės organas gali palaikyti žmogaus gyvybę, ir atsakymas yra teigiamas.

 

    FDA peržiūri tyrimo išvadas, sakė agentūros atstovė ir pridūrė, kad paraiškos dėl ksenotransplantacijos tyrimų vertinamos kiekvienu konkrečiu atveju.

 

    Merilendo universiteto mokslininkai ir Revivicor, Blacksburg, Va., bendrovė, tiekusi J. Bennetto kiaulės širdį, tikisi šią vasarą susitikti su FDA pareigūnais ir aptarti klinikinio tyrimo galimybę, sakė daktaras Mohiuddinas.

 

    Pasak universiteto Heersinko medicinos mokyklos Visapusiško transplantacijos instituto direktoriaus daktaro Jayme'o Locke'o, Alabamos universiteto Birmingeme mokslininkai taip pat siekia FDA leidimo pradėti klinikinį tyrimą.

 

    Alabamos programa anksčiau šiais metais pranešė, kad sėkmingai persodino porą kiaulių inkstų į   žmogaus kūną su mirusiais smegenimis.

 

    Vėliau šį mėnesį FDA rengia viešąjį patariamojo komiteto klausymą dėl ksenotransplantacijos.

 

    P. Bennetto atvejį atidžiai stebėjo platesnė transplantacijos bendruomenė, kuri dešimtmečius bandė patobulinti ksenotransplantaciją, kaip galimą lėtinio žmogaus donorų organų trūkumo problemos sprendimą.

 

    Remiantis Jungtiniu organų dalijimosi tinklu, kuris padeda skirti donorų organus JAV, kasmet miršta daugiau, nei 6 000 pacientų, prieš juos gaunant, bet kuriuo metu iš esančių laukiančiųjų sąraše." [1]

1. U.S. News: Pig-Heart Death Remains a Mystery
Marcus, Amy Dockser. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 23 June 2022: A.3.

Death of a Patient with Pig-Heart Remains a Mystery

"Doctors can't fully explain the death of the first recipient of a genetically modified pig heart, but they offered several theories in a new study -- and said clinical trials of pig-to-human organ transplantation should begin despite the continuing mystery.

David Bennett, a 57-year-old handyman from Hagerstown, Md., received the heart in an experimental operation in January at the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore and died two months later. The surgery -- an attempt to extend the life of a desperately ill patient who had been kept alive for weeks on a machine that took over the functions of his heart and lungs -- came after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration issued a special emergency authorization for it.

The authors of the study, published Wednesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, attributed Mr. Bennett's death to heart failure. But they were unable to pinpoint why the pig heart thickened and lost its pumping ability after seven weeks.

"It is still a mystery," said Muhammad M. Mohiuddin, a professor of surgery at the University of Maryland School of Medicine and one of the authors of the paper.

One possible explanation, the researchers said in the paper, is that the transplanted pig heart was attacked by human antibodies administered to Mr. Bennett in an effort to treat infections.

Another possible factor in his death could have been temporary discontinuation of treatment with an immune-suppressing drug that was given to prevent rejection of the pig heart, according to the researchers. They said the discontinuation, necessitated by a precipitous drop in his Mr. Bennett's white blood cell count, could have left the heart vulnerable to rejection.

Another possible explanation was that the pig heart given to Mr. Bennett was impaired by a pig virus, which was detected about 20 days after the surgery. There is no evidence that the virus infected Mr. Bennett, according to the researchers, but its presence in the pig heart could have caused inflammation that contributed to the cascade of events that led to his death.

Previous research involving the transplantation of pig organs into baboons showed that a recipient animal's long-term survival can be limited by the presence of pig cytomegalovirus, or CMV, the virus found in the heart Mr. Bennett received.

Scientists conducting experiments on interspecies organ transplantation, or xenotransplantation, said the fact that Mr. Bennett's body didn't immediately reject the heart -- and that he lived for two months following the surgery -- indicated that it now made sense to consider launching clinical trials.

"Mr. Bennett's life should accelerate the move to trials rather than his death slowing things down," said Dr. Allan Kirk, chair of surgery at Duke University School of Medicine and a transplant surgeon who wasn't involved in Mr. Bennett's surgery. "The question holding the field back was, can a pig organ provide life support for a human -- and the answer is yes."

The FDA is reviewing the study findings, a spokeswoman for the agency said, adding that applications for xenotransplantation studies are evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

University of Maryland researchers and Revivicor, the Blacksburg, Va., company that supplied Mr. Bennett's pig heart, hope to meet this summer with FDA officials to discuss the possibility of a clinical trial, Dr. Mohiuddin said.

Researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham are also seeking FDA approval to launch a clinical trial, according to Dr. Jayme Locke, director of the university's Heersink School of Medicine's Comprehensive Transplant Institute.

The Alabama program reported earlier this year that it had successfully transplanted a pair of pig kidneys into the body of a brain-dead person.

Later this month, the FDA is holding a public advisory committee hearing on xenotransplantation.

Mr. Bennett's case has been closely watched by the wider transplant community, which for decades has tried to advance xenotransplantation as a possible fix for the chronic shortage of human donor organs.

More than 100,000 patients are on the waiting list for hearts, kidneys and other organs at any given time, according to the United Network for Organ Sharing, which helps allocate donor organs in the U.S. More than 6,000 die every year before getting one, according to the nonprofit organization." [1]

1. U.S. News: Pig-Heart Death Remains a Mystery
Marcus, Amy Dockser. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 23 June 2022: A.3.

Netikėk bitkoino laidotuvių ritualais

„Pranešimai apie kriptovaliutos mirtį buvo perdėti. Tiems, kurie bitkoiną sekė nuo pat pradžių, kritimas nuo 64 000 dolerių iki 20 000 dolerių yra tiesiog dar viena iš bitkoino „daugelio mirčių“ (vienoje svetainėje buvo stebimi 455 nekrologai). Tie, kurie pirko viršuje, klausia, kodėl bitkoinas kainuoja tik 20 000 dolerių. Prieš keletą metų šis klausimas būtų buvęs nesuprantamas. Turėtume užduoti priešingą klausimą: kodėl šie internete sukurti pinigai, kuriuos nežinomas programuotojas pradėjo neaiškiame interneto forume, prekiauja taip aukštai?

 

    Dėl milijonų dolerių spekuliacijos nepakeičiamais žetonais, pradiniais monetų pasiūlymais ir akivaizdžiomis greito praturtėjimo schemomis lengva pamiršti, kad bitkoinus sukūrė ne žmonės, norintys praturtėti. Jį sukūrė slapyvardžiu prisidengęs programuotojas, žinomas, kaip Satoshi Nakamoto, kuris norėjo pinigų, kurių nekontroliuotų vyriausybės valdomi centriniai bankai. Kaip ir auksas, bitkoinų tinklas yra jokio politinio subjekto nekontroliuojamas. Yra nuspėjamas pinigų kūrimo tempas, o esamų bitkoinų skaičius niekada neviršys 21 mln.

 

    2011-aisiais iš viešumos dingęs J. Nakamoto turi milijardus dolerių vertės bitkoinų ir niekada jų neišleido. Kartą jis rašė, kad bitkoinas buvo „labai patrauklus libertarų požiūriui“, jei tai būtų galima paaiškinti, bet jam „geriau su kodu, nei žodžiais“. Kiti, kurie iš pradžių pirko ir evangelizavo bitkoinus, buvo ideologiškai nulemti skepticizmo dėl laisvos pinigų politikos po 2008 m. finansų krizės. Kai kurie pateko į kalėjimą už nelicencijuotą pinigų pervedimo verslą, motyvuotą šiais antivyriausybiniais įsitikinimais.

 

    Bitkoinas neišnyksta, nes niekur nedingsta ideologija, kurios pagrindu jis yra. Amerikos politinėje tradicijoje visada buvo dalis, kuri skeptiškai vertina vyriausybės gebėjimą valdyti pinigų pasiūlą – pagalvokite apie aukso vabalėlius. Federaliniam rezervui vis labiau vadovaujant pinigų politikai, atsižvelgiant į tokius politinius susirūpinimus, kaip klimato kaita ir „įvairovė“, apolitinių pinigų troškimas gali tik didėti.

 

    Šis privačių skaitmeninių pinigų troškimas yra tai, kas remia bitkoiną, kaip verslo projektą. Verslumas tinka ne visiems, o šiuolaikinė portfelio teorija yra teisinga vertinant diversifikaciją ir stabilumą paprastam investuotojui. Žmonės per daug dėmesio skiria ankstyvųjų kriptovaliutų investuotojų sukauptiems turtams, neprisimindami, kad šio mėnesio nuosmukis yra gana įprastas reiškinys.

 

    Gali atrodyti paradoksalu investuoti į „prognozuojamus“ pinigus, kurie praranda 70% savo vertės, tačiau ankstyvieji investuotojai mano, kad ilgalaikėje perspektyvoje pasiūlos nuspėjamumas bus svarbesnis, nei paklausos skatinami pakilimai ir nuosmukiai. Bitkoino nuosavybė yra labai centralizuota asmenų, kurie retai perkelia savo monetas, rankose. Jei atlaikėte 2011 m. avariją nuo 30 dolerių iki 2 dolerių arba 2018 m. kritimą nuo 19 000 dolerių iki 5 000 dolerių, ši naujausia avarija nesužlugdys jūsų tikėjimo šiuo projektu.

 

    Kaip finansinė investicija, bitkoinas yra labai spekuliatyvus, labiau panašus į rizikos kapitalą, o ne į užsienio valiutą. Jei neturite įsitikinimų apie pinigų teoriją, šie lašai jums gali kelti nerimą. Tačiau tvirti įsitikinimai leidžia žmonėms nepaisyti trumpalaikių rinkos signalų ir pasipelnyti, kai ilgainiui kolektyvinė išmintis pasirodo esanti klaidinga.

    ---

    Ponas Raskinas yra Qvidtvm Inc. tyrimų direktorius ir Niujorko universiteto teisės mokyklos docentas.“ [1]

1. Don't Believe The Obits For Bitcoin
Raskin, Max. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 23 June 2022: A.17.

Don't Believe The Obits For Bitcoin


"Reports of cryptocurrency's death have been exaggerated. For those who've followed bitcoin since the beginning, the fall from $64,000 to $20,000 is simply another of bitcoin's "many deaths" (one website has tracked 455 obituaries). Those who bought at the top are asking why bitcoin is only $20,000. This question would have been unfathomable a few years ago. We should ask the opposite question: Why is this internet-created money, started by an unknown programmer on an obscure web forum, trading so high?

With millions of dollars in speculation in nonfungible tokens, initial coin offerings and obvious get-rich-quick schemes, it's easy to forget that bitcoin wasn't created by people looking to get rich. It was designed by a pseudonymous programmer known as Satoshi Nakamoto, who wanted a money not controlled by government-run central banks. Like gold, the bitcoin network is outside the control of any political entity. There is a predictable rate of money creation, and the number of bitcoins in existence will never exceed 21 million.

Mr. Nakamoto, who disappeared from public view in 2011, owns billions of dollars worth of bitcoin and has never spent any of it. He once wrote that bitcoin was "very attractive to the libertarian viewpoint" if it could be explained, but that he was "better with code than words." Others who bought and evangelized bitcoin in the early days were ideologically driven by skepticism of the loose monetary policy in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Some went to prison for operating unlicensed money-transmitting businesses, motivated by these antigovernment beliefs.

Bitcoin isn't going away because the ideology underlying it isn't going away. There has always existed a strand in the American political tradition that is skeptical of the government's ability to manage the money supply -- think gold bugs. With the Federal Reserve increasingly guiding monetary policy according to political concerns such as climate change and "diversity," the intensity of the desire for apolitical money can only grow.

This desire for a private digital money is what undergirds bitcoin as an entrepreneurial project. Entrepreneurship isn't for everyone, and modern portfolio theory is right to value diversification and stability for the average investor. People focus too much on the riches amassed by early crypto investors without remembering that this month's decline is a fairly regular occurrence.

It may seem paradoxical to invest in a "predictable" money that loses 70% of its value, but early investors believe that in the long run the predictability of supply will be more important than demand-driven booms and busts. Bitcoin ownership is highly centralized in the hands of individuals who seldom move their coins. If you weathered the 2011 crash from $30 to $2 or the 2018 plummet from $19,000 to $5,000, this latest crash won't shatter your belief in this project.

As a financial investment, bitcoin is highly speculative, more like venture capital than foreign exchange. If you have no beliefs about monetary theory, you might find these drops extremely unsettling. But strong beliefs are what allow people to ignore the market's short-term signals and profit when the collective wisdom turns out in the long run to be wrong.

---

Mr. Raskin is director of research at Qvidtvm Inc. and an adjunct professor at New York University School of Law." [1]

1. Don't Believe The Obits For Bitcoin
Raskin, Max. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 23 June 2022: A.17.