Global Tech Expo Finds Startups in a Crunch

"It has been a hard few years for smaller gadget startups. It isn't likely to get easier soon.

Last year, the buzz from the CES global tech show in Las Vegas was a futuristic sound system poised to disrupt the audio industry. Created by an Israeli startup, the device used camera-powered head tracking and sophisticated acoustic engineering to beam sound directly to the ears of the listener, and nobody else.

The product made various publications' Best of CES lists, including ours. It eclipsed its Kickstarter fundraising goal, received dozens of preorders and raised millions of dollars in funding from investors, said its creators. The $800 devices were supposed to start shipping to customers last March.

But they never did -- and maybe never will.

"One of our investors filed for bankruptcy. The business spiraled and went bust. We had a hard time securing enough funding to continue," said Tomer Shani, co-founder of Noveto. The company is sending one executive to CES this year with one of its last working prototypes, searching for opportunities to start over, he added.

It isn't unusual for companies to show products at CES that never make it to market. It is also typically harder for hardware startups than software companies to get funding, since they build physical products that must be manufactured and distributed.

Those barriers are just the start this year.

There is rising economic uncertainty and interest rates. Covid 19-related issues in China have complicated access to parts and manufacturing. Meanwhile, venture-capital funding in the third quarter of 2022 dropped more than 50% from a year earlier, according to data from the startup-tracking firm Crunchbase.

Entrepreneurs will have a harder time borrowing money, and established businesses will miss opportunities to reach new customers if, to stay alive, they have to slash their advertising budgets, say analysts.

Opportunities to develop competitive products still exist. Some of the best-known companies, such as Microsoft Corp., iRobot Corp., Uber Technologies Inc. and Airbnb Inc., were founded during economic downturns. And the annual CES megashow tends to be where smaller hardware startups make connections vital to their progress. But given 2023's uncertain prospects, it could be a while before the next wave of startups unveil gadgets we can't live without.

In a typical prepandemic year, about 200,000 attendees converged at CES in Las Vegas. The show went fully virtual in 2021, and last year's gathering attracted 44,000 people. This week, the Consumer Technology Association,which organizes CES, said it expects 100,000 attendees. The show floor opens Wednesday.

Among the exhibitors, the CTA anticipates about 1,050 startups, which often showcase the most unusual items. That is down from more than 1,300 startups that it says attended in 2020.

Consultants and investors expect to see familiar items on the show floor, perhaps with slight updates, and fewer of the leading-edge, sometimes absurd, products that get us to stop and gawk.

"It's best for companies to avoid pie-in-the-sky announcements this year," said Carolina Milanesi, president of the technology-consulting agency Creative Strategies. "No one wants to invest in that right now."

German startup Plankpad, which makes fitness-videogame products, was considering exhibiting new versions of its balance board at CES but decided to shift launch plans to 2024. "Hopefully by then, the industry will be over all the bad news," said the company's chief strategist, David Cervenka.

Policy makers have their eyes on big tech companies' dominance, so founders hoping to sell out to a large firm potentially no longer have that as a viable exit strategy, analysts say. More startups might look to build businesses by joining with others, and use CES to announce new collaborations, according to Shawn DuBravac, chief economist at the market-research firm IPC.

Some companies are adjusting to the new consumer landscape by downsizing their creations. The startup Color+Light is bringing a mini version of Fluora, its LED house plant, to CES. The new device is $200 cheaper than the original.

Others feel pressure to raise prices. The German startup Steambox is developing a lunchbox that heats food with steam. It was forced to source new materials for its product after a manufacturing partner in China pulled out. In its scramble to recover, its production costs rose by 20%, say its founders.

They hoped to ship it in 2020 for $169. The product just began shipping for $269.

The Steambox founders plan to use CES 2023 to find U.S. retail partnerships. Amit Jaura, co-founder of Steambox, said the company "had to raise prices or the business wouldn't work." He added that it would offer free shipping to offset some of the added cost." [1]

1. Global Tech Expo Finds Startups in a Crunch
Brown, Dalvin.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 04 Jan 2023: B.4.

 

Grūdų kainos svyruos --- Perspektyva iš dalies priklauso nuo karinės operacijos Ukrainoje, kuriai pabaigos nematyti

  „Dėl Rusijos karinės operacijos Ukrainoje ir Vakarų sankcijų po jos pradžios JAV grūdų ateities sandoriai pakilo 2022 m. pradžioje, kol jie neseniai atsitraukė. Naujieji metai žada būti dar vieni nepastovūs.

 

     2022 m. kviečių ir sojų pupelių ateities sandoriai pasiekė rekordus, o kukurūzų ateities sandoriai pasiekė aukščiausią lygį per daugiau, nei dešimtmetį. Karinė operacija ir sankcijos užgniaužė tiekimą, taip pat, kaip ir sausra daugelyje pasėlių auginimo vietovių.

 

     Dabar grūdų kainos nukrito beveik iki buvusios nuo 2022 m. pradžios. Nuosmukį lėmė bendras žaliavų kainų nuo gamtinių dujų iki medvilnės ir medienos kainų sumažėjimas, kurios pastaraisiais mėnesiais po pakilimo sumažėjo. Tikimasi, kad Federalinis rezervų bankas ir kiti centriniai bankai padidins palūkanų normas, siekdami atvėsinti ekonomiką – procesas, daugelio analitikų teigimu, 2023 m. gali sukelti bent nedidelį nuosmukį, – tikimasi, kad paklausa bus apribota.

 

     Grūdų kainų perspektyva neaiški, iš dalies todėl, kad jos labai priklauso nuo karinės operacijos, kuriai pabaigos, atrodo, nematyti. Rusijos operacija vasario mėnesį sustabdė grūdų eksportą iš Juodosios jūros regiono ir sukėlė priešpriešą tarp Rusijos ir Vakarų valstybių dėl Rusijos energijos eksporto, o tai sukėlė bangavimą pasaulio ekonomikoje.

 

     Liepą pasiektas susitarimas leido saugiai išvežti grūdus iš Ukrainos uostų, atlaisvinus milijonus tonų maisto produktų. Lapkritį abi pusės pratęsė susitarimą dar 120 dienų. Vis dėlto, sandoris trapus.

 

     Rusija spalį trumpam atsitraukė ir toliau atakuoja Ukrainos uostamiesčius. Remiantis Jungtinių Tautų maisto ir žemės ūkio organizacijos duomenimis, Ukrainos grūdų eksportas tebėra mažesnis, nei prieš prasidedant operacijai.

 

     „Pagrindinė grūdų korta yra Rusijos ir Ukrainos laivybos susitarimas ir jo išlikimas“, – sakė žaliavų analitikas Jimas Wyckoffas. „Situacija yra netvirta, kurią grūdų prekybininkai ir toliau labai atidžiai stebės."

 

     Vakarų šalys, įskaitant JAV, neseniai nustatė viršutines Rusijos naftos pardavimo kainas, taip siekdamos smogti Kremliaus pajamoms. Rusija praėjusią savaitę pareiškė neparduodanti šioms šalims naftos ar naftos produktų.

 

     Žalios naftos kainų pokyčiai daro įtaką žemės ūkio ateities sandoriams, nes JAV kukurūzų ir sojų pupelių paklausa iš dalies kyla dėl atsinaujinančio kuro. Kukurūzai yra pagrindinis ingredientas, gaminant etanolį, o sojų aliejus yra augalinis aliejus, naudojamas biokurui gaminti. Aukštesnės naftos kainos daro tokio kuro gamybą patrauklesnę ir skatina pagrindinių grūdų paklausą.

 

     Pirmosiomis Rusijos ir Ukrainos konflikto dienomis grūdų ateities sandoriai pasiekė istorinį lygį. Aktyviausia kviečių ateities sandorių prekyba Čikagos prekybos valdyboje kovo mėn. pakilo iki rekordinio 12,94 dolerių už bušelį, o tai viršijo ankstesnį rekordą, pasiektą 2008 m. Sojų pupelių ateities sandoriai taip pat pasiekė savo rekordą, birželio mėnesį išaugo iki 17,69 dolerių už bušelį. Kukurūzų ateities sandoriai balandį pakilo iki 8,14 dolerių už bušelį – aukščiausią lygį nuo 2012 m.

 

     Nuo to laiko ateities sandoriai dalį šių pelnų grąžino. Antradienį kukurūzų ateities sandorių kaina smuko 0,9% iki 6,71 dolerių už bušelį, sojos pupelės – 1,9% iki 14,92 dolerių už bušelį, o kviečiai – 1,6% iki 7,79 dolerių už bušelį.

 

     Kai kurie analitikai lažinasi, kad 2023 m. grūdų ir kitų žaliavų kainos nukris, nes palūkanų normos ir toliau kils.

 

     „Manome, kad daugumos žaliavų kainos sumažės dar 2023 m. pradžioje, kai įvyks pats pasaulinis nuosmukis ir daugelyje didžiųjų ekonomikų bus sugriežtinta pinigų politika“, – gruodžio mėn.

 

     Kinija, pirmaujanti grūdų vartotoja pasaulyje, taip pat turės įtakos 2023 m. žemės ūkio ateities perspektyvoms. Šalis neseniai paskelbė, kad atšauks griežtas priemones, skirtas COVID-19 plitimui kontroliuoti.

 

     „2023 m. Kinijoje turėtų prasidėti reikšmingas ekonomikos augimo laikotarpis, tačiau manoma, kad pirmąjį pusmetį jį apribos sparčiai plintantis COVID“, – sakė „StoneX Group“ vyriausiasis žaliavų ekonomistas Arlanas Sudermanas.

 

     Tačiau ūkininkai taip pat susiduria su didesnėmis eksploatacinėmis išlaidomis, įskaitant trąšas ir ūkio įrangą, o tai gali išlaikyti aukštas grūdų kainas.

 

     „Grūdais mes linkę prekiauti už gamybos savikainą arba beveik ją, tačiau istoriškai retai prekiaujama žemesne, nei gamybos savikaina“, – sakė Jake'as Hanley, „Teucrium Trading“, valdančios žemės ūkio ETF, generalinis direktorius ir vyresnysis portfelio specialistas.

 

     Remiantis žaliavų tyrimų bendrovės DTN duomenimis, trąšų komponentų, tokių kaip karbamidas, kainos sumažėjo nuo rekordinių 2022 m., tačiau išlieka gerokai didesnės už penkerių metų vidurkį.

 

     Gamtinių dujų, kitos trąšų žaliavos, kainos pastarąjį mėnesį smarkiai krito, tačiau jos vis dar yra didesnės, nei prieš metus.“ [1]

 

1. Business News: Grain Prices Set for More Volatility --- Outlook hinges, in part, on the military operation in Ukraine  for which there is no end in sight
Maltais, Kirk.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 04 Jan 2023: B.5.

Grain Prices Set for More Volatility --- Outlook hinges, in part, on the military operation in Ukraine for which there is no end in sight

"Russia's military operation in Ukraine and Western sanctions after it started sent U.S. grain futures soaring early in 2022 before their recent retreat. The new year promises to be another volatile one.

Futures for wheat and soybeans reached records in 2022, and corn futures notched their highest level in more than a decade. The military operation and sanctions stifled supply, and so did dry weather in many crop-growing areas.

Now, grain prices have fallen close to where they started 2022. The decline tracks with an overall easing of prices for commodities from natural gas to cotton and lumber, which have slipped in recent months after surging. More interest-rate boosts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks to cool economies -- a process many analysts say could result in at least a modest recession in 2023 -- are expected to keep a lid on demand.

For grain prices, the outlook is uncertain, in part because they hinge so much on a military operation for which no end seems to be in sight. Russia's February operation jammed up grain exports out of the Black Sea region and led to a standoff between Russia and Western nations over Russia's energy exports, sending ripples through the global economy.

An agreement reached in July allowed for the safe passage of grain from Ukrainian ports, freeing up millions of tons of food products. In November, both sides extended the agreement for another 120 days. Still, the deal is fragile.

Russia briefly backed out in October and continues to attack Ukrainian port cities. Ukraine's grain exports remain below levels before the operation began, according to data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization.

"The wild card for grains is the Russia-Ukraine shipping deal and its survivability," said commodities analyst Jim Wyckoff. "It's a shaky situation that grain traders will continue to monitor very closely."

Western countries including the U.S. recently put price caps on international sales of Russian crude, a move to strike at the Kremlin's money reserves. Russia said last week that it wouldn't sell oil or petroleum products to those countries.

Movements in crude-oil prices influence agricultural futures because demand for U.S. corn and soybeans stems in part from renewable fuels. Corn is the key ingredient for producing ethanol, while soybean oil is a vegetable oil used for the production of biofuels. Higher oil prices make producing such fuels more attractive, stimulating demand for the underlying grain.

Grain futures shot up to historic levels in the early days of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Most-active wheat futures trading on the Chicago Board of Trade rose to a record of $12.94 a bushel in March, beating the previous high set in 2008. Soybean futures also found their record, increasing to $17.69 a bushel in June. Corn futures climbed to $8.14 a bushel in April, the highest they have been since 2012.

Futures have since given back some of those gains. On Tuesday, corn futures closed down 0.9% at $6.71 a bushel, soybeans closed down 1.9% at $14.92 a bushel, and wheat closed down 1.6% at $7.79 a bushel.

Some analysts are betting that prices for grain and other commodities will slip in 2023 as interest rates continue to rise.

"We think most commodity prices will ease back in early 2023, at the height of the global recession and monetary tightening in many major economies," said Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist with London-based Capital Economics, in a note published in December.

China, the world's leading grain consumer, also will affect the outlook for agricultural futures in 2023. The country recently said it would rescind its strict measures to control the spread of Covid-19.

"China should see a period of significant economic growth in 2023, but that is expected to be capped in the first half of the year by rapidly spreading Covid," said Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX Group.

However, farmers also are contending with higher operational costs, including for fertilizer and farm equipment, and that might keep grain prices elevated.

"Grains tend to trade at or near their cost of production, but historically seldom trade below production cost," said Jake Hanley, managing director and senior portfolio specialist with Teucrium Trading, which manages agricultural ETFs.

Prices for fertilizer components such as urea have pulled back from records earlier in 2022, but remain well above the five-year average, according to data from commodities research firm DTN.

Prices for natural gas, another raw material for fertilizer, have fallen sharply over the past month, but they are still up from a year ago." [1]

1. Business News: Grain Prices Set for More Volatility --- Outlook hinges, in part, on the military operation in Ukraine  for which there is no end in sight
Maltais, Kirk.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 04 Jan 2023: B.5.