Trump Ukraine Stance Sparks Worry for Allies

"Donald Trump's refusal to commit to aiding Ukraine portends a stark choice for U.S. voters if the conflict is still raging in November 2024: The wide-ranging support for Kyiv under President Biden, or indifference to the winner of a conflict that has cost the U.S. and its allies tens of billions of dollars.

The former president, who is also the GOP's leading contender to oppose Mr. Biden next year, also challenged the broad support in the mainstream of the Republican Party for backing Ukraine, with some GOP lawmakers pushing the Biden administration to provide Kyiv with even more advanced and lethal weaponry.

Mr. Trump's comments added to concerns in Europe that the events in Ukraine could grow polarized in U.S. domestic politics as the presidential race approaches, splitting voters and members of Congress down partisan lines. Kyiv's allies said they feared U.S. support for Ukraine could fray.

Mr. Trump told a town-hall event hosted by CNN on Wednesday that his priority would be to put a swift end to the conflict. He declined to say whether he wanted Ukraine to win the conflict, and called on Europe to put up more of the money keeping Kyiv in the fight.

An imminent cease-fire would essentially hand a partial victory to President Vladimir Putin of Russia.

"Russians and Ukrainians, I want them to stop dying," he said. "And I'll have that done in 24 hours."

When Mr. Trump was president, his actions at times failed to match his rhetoric, such as his threat to abandon the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's mutual defense pact if European countries didn't spend more on defense. 

 But the prospect of a U.S. approach to the conflict that diverges from the Biden administration's and its major allies unsettled officials in Europe, and raised fresh doubts about Washington's ability to sustain its lead role in supporting Kyiv. 

 Since start of events in Ukraine in early 2022, Washington has galvanized Western military and economic assistance for Kyiv and a program of sanctions and export bans aimed at Russia's economy.

The U.S. has particularly dominated the delivery of military aid to Ukraine, which European allies' limited armed forces and defense industries have struggled to match.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Wednesday played down concerns that the divide between Republicans and Democrats on the conflict was growing. Opinion polls have shown a significant drop in grass-roots Republican support for the Biden administration's hefty backing of Ukraine, though GOP congressional leaders continue to back funding for Kyiv.

"Who knows where we'll be" by the time of the U.S. presidential election, the Ukrainian leader told the British Broadcasting Corp. "I believe we'll win by then."

Some European officials said the region needs to do more to aid Ukraine, to counter criticism in the U.S. that the continent isn't pulling its weight and relies too much on Washington for its own security.

"I was not a fan of President Trump, but I think he was right about one thing -- Europeans do not share their part of the burden," the European Union's foreign-policy chief Josep Borrell said on Thursday.

European concerns about Washington's direction on Ukraine have been gradually growing since last year's midterm elections, when Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.), now the House speaker, said Congress would no longer offer blank checks for Ukraine.

However, a significant bloc of Republicans, including Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the chamber's GOP leader, have pledged to continue support for arming and financing Ukraine. Mr. McCarthy has also said recently that he supports continued assistance for Kyiv.

Some Republicans urged allies in Europe and elsewhere to take Mr. Trump's remarks with a grain of salt -- for now. They concede the cause for concern, but said that it was too early to presume Mr. Trump would be the GOP nominee, and that he should just be viewed as a candidate trying to engage his supporters.

"I get that we can't ignore him, but we also can't prematurely empower him," one Republican congressional staff member said.

Opponents to Ukraine aid on Capitol Hill remain a small but vocal minority of Republican lawmakers. A letter sent last month to Mr. Biden complaining about "unrestrained" Ukraine aid collected only 19 Republican signatures, including three senators.

The man expected to be among Mr. Trump's prime challengers for the Republican nomination, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, said in March that it wasn't vital to U.S. interests to become "further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia," prompting a backlash on Capitol Hill and from some donors and voters."

 

Among those from Capitol Hill was the aforementioned Republican congressional staffer. As the election approaches, Republican voters will become more informed, and support for Ukraine will become career-threatening for Republican politicians. With Republicans now in control of Congress, the flow of goodies to Zelensky will stop sooner than he expects.

 

1. Trump Ukraine Stance Sparks Worry for Allies. Norman, Laurence;
Walker, Marcus. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 12 May 2023: A.1.

Rusija gavo ginklų iš Pietų Afrikos, teigia JAV

  „JOHANNESBURGAS – Pietų Afrika tiekė Rusijai ginklus ir amuniciją, padedama Rusijos krovininio laivo, kuris gruodį slapta prisišvartavo didžiausioje šalies karinio jūrų laivyno bazėje, ketvirtadienį pranešė JAV ambasadorius Pietų Afrikoje.

 

     Ambasadoriaus Reuben E. Brigety II komentarus pranešė vietos žiniasklaida, o juos patvirtino instruktaže dalyvavęs asmuo. Tikėtina, kad jie dar labiau apsunkins santykius tarp JAV ir Pietų Afrikos – šalies, kuri oficialiai įsipareigojo neutralumą Ukrainoje, o Vašingtonas ir Europa labai stengėsi priartinti prie Vakarų aljanso prieš Maskvą.

 

     Dabar JAV ir jos Vakarų partneriai turi nuspręsti, ar taikyti sankcijas Pietų Afrikos pareigūnams ir subjektams, susijusiems su tariamu potencialių karinių medžiagų tiekimu Rusijai, ir rizikuoti, kad bus atstumta labiausiai išsivysčiusi Afrikos ekonomika ir viena iš labiausiai įsitvirtinusių demokratijų.

 

     „Be kita ko, mes pastebėjome, kad 2022 m. gruodžio 6–8 d. Simono miestelio karinio jūrų laivyno bazėje buvo krovininis laivas, į kurį, mūsų įsitikinimu, įkėlė ginklus ir amuniciją, ir jis grįžo į Rusiją. P. Brigety buvo cituojamas internetinėje naujienų svetainėje News24.

 

     „Rusų ginklavimas yra labai rimtas, ir mes nemanome, kad šis klausimas yra išspręstas, ir norėtume, kad SA [pradėtų] vykdyti savo neutralumo politiką“, – sakė jis.

 

     Pietų Afrikos prezidento Cyrilo Ramaphosos atstovas sakė, kad vyriausybė pradės tyrimą, kuriam vadovaus į pensiją išėjęs teisėjas, tačiau pridūrė, kad JAV nepateikė jokių savo ambasadoriaus kaltinimų įrodymų.

 

     Pietų Afrikos gynybos ministrė Thandi Modise'as anksčiau atsisakė pasakyti, ką Rusijos laivas „Lady R“ paėmė Pietų Afrikoje, kai gruodžio 6–9 d. prisišvartavo Simon's Town karinio jūrų laivyno bazėje, esančioje prie pat Keiptauno. jo atsakikliai buvo išjungti. „Nesvarbu, koks turinys buvo gautas šiame laive, buvo užsakytas gerokai prieš „Covid“, – sakė ponia Modise gruodžio mėn. JAV „grasina Afrikai, ne tik Pietų Afrikai, kad neturėtų bet ko, kas net kvepia Rusija“.

 

     Valstybės departamentas atsisakė aptarti tariamus ginklų perdavimus ir tai, ar planuojama taikyti sankcijas visiems, kurie būtų buvę susiję su tuo.

 

     JAV pareigūnai išreiškė savo susirūpinimą tiesiogiai „keliems Pietų Afrikos pareigūnams“, sakė Valstybės departamento atstovas Vedantas Patelis ir pridūrė, kad Vašingtonas tebėra įsipareigojęs laikytis „teigiamos mūsų dvišalių santykių su Pietų Afrika darbotvarkės“.

 

     2022 m. gegužę JAV skyrė sankcijas Lady R ir jos savininkui Dagestane, Rusijoje įsikūrusiam MG-FLOT už tariamą ginklų nešiojimą Maskvos vardu. MG-FLOT, anksčiau naudojusi pavadinimą Transmorflot, neatsakė į elektroninį laišką, išsiųstą internete nurodytais adresais, siekianti pakomentuoti. Su Rusijos ambasados Pretorijoje spaudos atašė susisiekti nepavyko.

 

     „The Wall Street Journal“ sausį pranešė, kad JAV ambasada Pretorijoje įspėjo Pietų Afrikos vyriausybę apie tai, kad ledi R buvo taikomos sankcijos, kai ji prisišvartavo Simono miestelio bazėje, bet negavo jokio atsakymo.

 

     Laivų sekimo tarnybos rodo, kad „Lady R“ gruodžio 6 d. išjungė automatinius atsakiklius, kurie perduoda laivo tapatybę ir vietą kitiems laivams ir jūrų institucijoms. Tada du Pietų Afrikos karinio jūrų laivyno vilkikai padėjo jam prisistatyti prie krantinės Simono miestelio bazėje, – pasakojo liudininkai.

 

     Jie sakė matę sunkvežimius su palydos transporto priemonėmis, gabenusias gabenimo konteinerius į bazę tamsoje. Viena gyventoja pasakojo, kad buvo persekiojama Simono miestelio gatvėmis, kai bandė sekti iš bazės išvažiuojantį tuščią sunkvežimį.

 

     Lady R paliko Simono miestelį gruodžio 9 d. ryte. Kai tos dienos vakare laivas vėl pradėjo perduoti poziciją, jis buvo inkaruotas daugiau, nei 100 mylių į rytus nuo Simono miestelio, sekimo paslaugos parodė. Sekimo tarnybos „ShipNext“ duomenimis, ledi R į Rusijos Juodosios jūros miestą Novorosijską atvyko vasario 16 d., kur išbuvo septynias dienas.

 

     Didžiausios Pietų Afrikos opozicinės partijos – Demokratų aljanso – lyderis Johnas Steenhuisenas sakė, kad JAV ambasadoriaus komentarai yra „stulbinantis ir didelį nerimą keliantis patvirtinimas, kad prezidentas Cyril Ramaphosa ir jo vyriausybė aktyviai dalyvauja įvykiuose Ukrainoje“ [1].

 

1. World News: Russia Got Arms From South Africa, U.S. Says. Steinhauser, Gabriele. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 12 May 2023: A.8.

 

Russia Got Arms From South Africa, U.S. Says.

"JOHANNESBURG -- South Africa supplied weapons and ammunition to Russia with the help of a Russian cargo ship that surreptitiously docked at the country's largest naval base in December, the U.S. ambassador to South Africa said in a briefing Thursday.

The comments from Ambassador Reuben E. Brigety II were reported by local media and confirmed by a person present at the briefing. They are likely to further complicate the relationship between the U.S. and South Africa -- a country that officially has pledged neutrality on events in Ukraine, and that both Washington and Europe have tried hard to draw closer to the Western alliance against Moscow.

Now, the U.S. and its Western partners must decide whether to place sanctions on South African officials and entities involved in the alleged supply of potential military materials to Russia and risk alienating Africa's most developed economy and one of its most established democracies.

"Among the things we noted was the docking of the cargo ship in the Simon's Town naval base between 6th to 8th December, 2022, which we are confident uploaded weapons and ammunition onto that vessel in Simon's Town as it made its way back to Russia," Mr. Brigety was quoted saying on online news site News24.

"The arming of the Russians is extremely serious, and we do not consider this issue to be resolved, and we would like SA to [start] practicing its nonalignment policy," he said, according to the news site.

A spokesman for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said the government would launch an inquiry, led by a retired judge, into the matter, but added that the U.S. had provided no evidence for its ambassador's allegations.

South Africa's defense minister, Thandi Modise, has previously declined to say what the Russian ship, the Lady R, picked up in South Africa, when it docked at the Simon's Town naval base, just outside Cape Town, between Dec. 6 and 9 while its transponders were turned off. "Whatever contents this vessel was getting were ordered long before Covid," Ms. Modise said at a December briefing. The U.S. "threatens Africa, not just South Africa, of having anything that is even smelling of Russia."

The State Department declined to discuss the alleged weapons transfers and whether it planned to sanction anyone who would have been involved.

U.S. officials have raised their concerns directly with "multiple South African officials," said State Department spokesman Vedant Patel, adding that Washington remains committed to the "affirmative agenda of our bilateral relationship with South Africa."

The U.S. sanctioned the Lady R and its owner, Dagestan, Russia-based MG-FLOT, in May 2022 for allegedly carrying weapons on behalf of Moscow. MG-FLOT, which previously used the name Transmorflot, didn't respond to an email sent to addresses listed online seeking comment. The press attache for the Russian Embassy in Pretoria couldn't be reached to comment.

The Wall Street Journal reported in January that the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria had alerted the South African government to the fact that the Lady R was under sanctions before it docked at the Simon's Town base, but received no response.

Vessel-tracking services indicate that the Lady R switched off its automatic transponders, which relay a ship's identity and position to other vessels and maritime authorities, on Dec. 6. Two South African navy tugboats then helped it to a berth at the Simon's Town base, witnesses said.

They said they saw trucks with escort vehicles carrying shipping containers onto the base under the cover of darkness. One resident said she was chased down Simon's Town's streets after she tried to follow an empty truck leaving the base.

The Lady R left Simon's Town the morning of Dec. 9. When the ship started transmitting a position again in the evening of that day, it was anchored more than 100 miles east of Simon's Town, tracking services showed.According to tracking service ShipNext, the Lady R arrived in the Russian Black Sea city of Novorossiysk on Feb. 16, where it stayed for seven days.

John Steenhuisen, the leader of South Africa's largest opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, said the U.S. ambassador's comments were "a chilling and deeply troubling confirmation that President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government are actively involved in the events in Ukraine."" [1]

1. World News: Russia Got Arms From South Africa, U.S. Says. Steinhauser, Gabriele. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y. [New York, N.Y]. 12 May 2023: A.8.