The Germans fear an economic crash

"According to a study, half of Germans believe that the Federal Republic will no longer be a leading economic nation in ten to 15 years. The mood among the population and the economy has deteriorated massively.

According to a new survey, the confidence of Germans in the strength of the country has fallen dramatically within a few months: According to an Allensbach study, 50 percent of Germans believe that in ten to 15 years the Federal Republic will no longer be one of the leading economic nations in the world. In 2022 it was only 30 percent. Conversely, only 31 percent are now convinced that the state will play a leading role (2022: 48), according to a study commissioned by the CDU/CSU parliamentary group. This was presented on Thursday evening to the executive board of the Union faction.

According to the survey, the mood among the population and the economy has deteriorated massively. 58 percent of executives in business stated that Germany has passed its peak. 68 percent of the population see a sustained weakening of the industry - a similarly large number consider this to be a major problem. 76 percent of executives also believe that the concern that high energy costs will lead to de-industrialization is justified.

Doubts about the traffic light government

It was only on Wednesday that the federal cabinet decided on a package of measures designed to boost the sluggish economy. Chancellor Olaf Scholz had repeatedly warned against talking the country into a crisis. 

But only 41 percent of those surveyed still believe that Germany is a very good business location - a dramatic drop compared to 2022, when 71 percent of those surveyed said so.

Instead of 15 percent last year, 50 percent now doubt this. 83 percent find a reduction in bureaucracy particularly important, followed by modernization of administration, digitization and better education in schools and universities.

The lost trust is clearly linked to the traffic light government. According to Allensbach, 76 percent of those surveyed have doubts that the traffic light can advance the country. On the other hand, 55 percent think that the government's policy is still weakening the business position, only 10 percent believe it will be strengthened. The competence values for the parties are correspondingly poor: only seven percent each trust the SPD or the FDP to be able to strengthen the position. For the Greens it is only five percent, for the AfD, on the other hand, eight and for the Union 27 percent.” [1]

1. The Germans fear an economic crash

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (online)Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung GmbH. Sep 1, 2023.

 

Kaip veikė mūsų pasaulis: Amerikos galia ką tik nukentėjo. Tai nėra blogai Amerikai

  "Daugiau, nei dešimtmetį Jungtinės Valstijos dažniausiai ignoravo BRICS. Grupuotė, kurią sudarė Brazilija, Rusija, Indija, Kinija ir Pietų Afrika, retai registravosi Vašingtono radare. Kai tai padarė, impulsas – kaip parodė Jake'as Sullivanas, patarėjas nacionalinio saugumo klausimais, neseniai pabrėžęs, kad koalicija nėra „kažkokia geopolitinė varžovė“, siekė sumenkinti grupės reikšmę. Vakarų apžvalgininkai savo ruožtu BRICS iš esmės nuspalvino kaip Kinijos bandymų dominuoti pasaulio pietuose ženklą. arba šiek tiek daugiau, nei kalbanti parduotuvė.Kai kurie netgi ragino ją išardyti.

 

     Toks pasitenkinimas dabar atrodo mažiau tvirtas. Praėjusią savaitę Johanesburge vykusiame viršūnių susitikime grupė pakvietė į savo gretas prisijungti šešias pasaulines pietų valstybes – Argentiną, Egiptą, Etiopiją, Iraną, Saudo Arabiją ir Jungtinius Arabų Emyratus. Po pranešimo abejingumas užleido vietą nuostabai, net nerimui. Tačiau pavojaus signalo nereikia. BRICS niekada nevaldys pasaulio ir nepakeis JAV vadovaujamos tarptautinės sistemos.

 

     Tačiau būtų klaida neįvertinti jo svarbos. Galų gale, bet kuris klubas, turintis tokį ilgą laukiančiųjų sąrašą – šiuo atveju beveik 20 valstybių – tikriausiai kažką daro teisingai. BRICS plėtra yra neabejotinas daugelio šalių nepasitenkinimo pasauline tvarka ir siekių pagerinti savo vietą joje ženklas. Amerikai, kurios gniaužtas dėl pasaulinio dominavimo silpsta, tai yra subtilus iššūkis ir galimybė.

 

     Kritikai turi teisingą mintį: BRICS tebėra nebaigtas darbas. Dvi pagrindinės jo iniciatyvos – Naujasis plėtros bankas ir neapibrėžtųjų rezervų susitarimas – yra gana mažos, palyginti su pasauliniu vystymuisi skirtų paskolų ir finansų mastais. Kitos iniciatyvos, pavyzdžiui, bendradarbiavimas sveikatos tyrimų ir kosmoso tyrinėjimų srityje, yra pradiniame etape. Plėtra gali apsunkinti institucijų kūrimą, nes jame gali dalyvauti daugiau žaidėjų. Pavyzdžiui, yra tam tikrų skirtumų tarp to, kaip Kinija ir Rusija bei pasaulinės pietinės valstybės vertina šią grupę.

 

     Žinoma, Amerikos dominavimą pasaulyje užtikrina didžiulės karinės išlaidos, aljansų tinklas ir šimtai toli nutolusių karinių bazių.

 

     Tačiau net jei išsiplėtusi BRICS tik susimaišys su materialine sėkme – ir yra nemaža tikimybė, kad jai pasiseks geriau – ji mestų iššūkį Vašingtonui trijose pagrindinėse srityse: pasaulinėse normose, geopolitinėse konkurencijose ir tarpregioniniame bendradarbiavime.

 

     Nuo Sovietų Sąjungos žlugimo 1991 m. ir nepaisant pragaištingų intervencijų Irake ir Afganistane, Amerika galėjo parodyti, kad visur kalba už laisvės ir demokratijos vertybes. Tiesą sakant, neproporcingas Vašingtono įtaka pasaulinių normų formulavimui yra pagrindinis jo galios šaltinis. Ne veltui Bideno administracija ne kartą tvirtina, kad pasaulis yra padalintas į taisyklių besilaikančias demokratijas ir taisykles pažeidžiančias autokratijas, o JAV vadovauja pirmajai.

 

     Šią „demokratija prieš autokratiją“ sistemą jau iš dalies diskredituota paties Vašingtono atsidūrimu autoritarinių vyriausybių glėbyje. Didesnis BRICS suduotų dar vieną smūgį kitu kampu. Iš 11 valstybių, kurios sudarys išplėstą grupę, galima sakyti, kad keturios yra demokratijos, keturios – autokratijos, dvi – monarchijos ir dar viena – teokratija. Tai dar vienas įrodymas, kad šalies politinė sistema yra prastas rodiklis, nurodantis, kaip ji nustato savo interesus ir su kuo ji nusprendžia kurti koaliciją.

 

     Be to, į išplėstą grupę bus įtrauktos dvi aršių varžovų poros – Indija ir Kinija, Saudo Arabija ir Iranas – taip pat įkyri Egipto ir Etiopijos pora. Vien tik bendra BRICS narystė neišspręs rimtų problemų tarp šių priešininkų. Tačiau tai sukurs unikalias galimybes tiesioginiams, abipusiams pokalbiams santykinai saugioje daugiašalėje aplinkoje tarp valstybių, kurios nemėgsta viena kitos. 

 

Vašingtonas istoriškai rado pranašumą, išnaudodamas susiskaldymą savo tikslams, ypač Artimuosiuose Rytuose. Sumažinus nepasitikėjimą tarp šalių, BRICS galėtų padėti atremti šį nesveiką ciklą.

 

     Kad išlaikytų savo viršenybę, Vašingtonas taip pat linkęs padalinti pasaulį į regionus. JAV sąjungininkai ir partneriai, ypač pasaulio pietuose, paprastai raginami atremti JAV priešą arba užmegzti gilesnius ryšius su vietiniais JAV partneriais savo regione. Indija ir Filipinai skatinami pasipriešinti, pavyzdžiui, Kinijai, o Persijos įlankos valstybės raginamos sutelkti dėmesį į Iraną ir užmegzti ryšius su Izraeliu.

 

     Šis „skaldyk ir valdyk“ metodas apriboja vidutinių jėgų akiratį iki jų pačių regionų. Turėdamos narius trijuose žemynuose, BRICS galėtų sukurti naujas erdves pagrindinėms pasaulio pietų valstybėms, kurios galėtų susikurti gilesnius sąveikos ir bendradarbiavimo įpročius gerokai už savo regionų ribų, prieštaraudamos Vašingtono pageidaujamam darbo pasidalijimui.

 

     Labiau už viską didėjanti BRICS šalių trauka yra signalas, kad Amerikos pasaulinis dominavimas silpsta. Tačiau tai nereiškia, kad dauguma naujųjų ir originalių grupės narių yra antiamerikietiški: Egiptas yra tvirtas saugumo partneris, Brazilija ir Pietų Afrika palaiko ilgalaikius santykius, o Indija yra bene artimiausia Vašingtono draugė šioje kolekcijoje. Jie tiesiog norėtų gyventi pasaulyje, kuriame Jungtinės Valstijos būtų pirmaujanti, o ne dominuojanti valdžia.

 

     Ir ar tai būtų taip blogai? Amerika, susidūrusi su savo neįveikiamomis vidaus problemomis, BRICS šalių plėtrą turėtų vertinti, ne kaip grėsmę, o labiau, kaip galimybę. Tai suteikia Jungtinėms Valstijoms galimybę ne tik iš naujo mokytis bendradarbiavimo praktikos, bet ir atsikratyti kai kurių tolimų naštų ir išskirtinumo sampratų, kurios netarnauja jos nacionaliniams interesams. Šiame procese dar gali atsirasti geresnė Amerika ir, galbūt, geresnis pasaulis." [1]

1. American Power Just Took a Hit. That's Not Bad. [Op-Ed]. Shidore, Sarang. 
New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 02 Sep 2023: A.23.

How Did Our World Work: American Power Just Took a Hit. That's Not Bad for America.

"For more than a decade, the United States mostly ignored BRICS. The grouping, formed by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, rarely registered on Washington's radar. When it did, the impulse -- as shown by Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, recently stressing that the coalition is not "some kind of geopolitical rival" -- was to downplay the group's significance. Western commentators, for their part, largely painted BRICS as either a sign of Chinese attempts to dominate the global south or little more than a talking shop. Some even called for its dissolution.

Such complacency looks less tenable now. At a summit in Johannesburg last week, the group invited six global south states -- Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- to join its ranks. In the aftermath of the announcement, indifference gave way to surprise, even anxiety. Yet there's no need for alarm. BRICS will never run the world or replace the U.S.-led international system.

It would be a mistake, though, to dismiss its importance. After all, any club with such a long waiting list -- in this case, nearly 20 nations -- is probably doing something right. BRICS's expansion is an unmistakable marker of many countries' dissatisfaction with the global order and of their ambition to improve their place within it. For America, whose grip on global dominance is weakening, it amounts to a subtly significant challenge -- and an opportunity.

The critics have a point: BRICS remains a work in progress. Its two major initiatives -- the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement -- are quite small when compared with the scale of global development lending and finance. Other initiatives such as cooperation on health research and space exploration are in their embryonic stages. Expansion could make institution-building harder, with more players in the mix. There are, for example, some differences between the way China and Russia and the global south states view the grouping.

America's global dominance, to be sure, is underwritten by vast military spending, a network of alliances and hundreds of far-flung military bases. 

But even if an expanded BRICS only muddles along in terms of material success -- and there's a good chance it will do better than that -- it will challenge Washington in three key areas: global norms, geopolitical rivalries and cross-regional collaboration.

Since the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 and despite the disastrous interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan, America has been able to portray itself as speaking for the values of freedom and democracy everywhere. In fact, the disproportionate sway Washington holds over the articulation of global norms is a major source of its power. It's not for nothing that the Biden administration repeatedly claims that the world is divided between rules-following democracies and rules-flouting autocracies, with the United States at the head of the former.

This "democracy vs. autocracy" framework has already been partly discredited by Washington's own embrace of authoritarian governments. A bigger BRICS would deal it another blow from a different angle. Of the 11 states that will make up the expanded group, four can be said to be democracies, four are autocracies, two are monarchies and another a theocracy. It is further evidence that a country's political system is a poor indicator of how it frames its interests and with whom it decides to build a coalition.

What's more, the expanded group will include two pairs of fierce rivals -- India and China, Saudi Arabia and Iran -- as well as the acrimonious pairing of Egypt and Ethiopia. Shared BRICS membership alone will not solve the serious problems between these adversaries. But it will create unique opportunities for direct, two-way conversations between states that dislike each other in a relatively safe multilateral environment. Washington has historically found advantage in exploiting divisions for its own ends, most notably in the Middle East. By reducing the distrust between countries, BRICS could help counter this unhealthy cycle.

To perpetuate its primacy, Washington also tends to divide the world into regions. U.S. allies and partners, in the global south especially, are typically urged to counter a U.S. adversary or forge deeper ties with local U.S. partners in their region. India and the Philippines are encouraged to counter China, for example, while the Gulf States are nudged to focus on Iran and build links with Israel.

This divide-and-conquer approach acts to limit middle powers' horizons to their own regions. With members across three continents, BRICS could create new spaces for key global south states to forge deeper habits of interaction and cooperation well beyond their regions, working against the grain of Washington's preferred division of labor.

More than anything, the growing attraction of BRICS is a signal that American global dominance is waning. But that doesn't mean most of the group's new and original members are anti-American: Egypt is a steadfast security partner, Brazil and South Africa have longstanding relationships, and India is perhaps Washington's closest friend in the collection. They would simply prefer to live in a world in which the United States was a leading, rather than the dominant, power.

And would that be so bad? America, facing its own intractable domestic problems, should view BRICS expansion less as a threat and more as an opportunity. It offers a chance for the United States not only to relearn the practice of cooperation but also to let go some of the distant burdens and notions of exceptionalism that do not serve its national interest. In the process, a better America -- and possibly a better world -- may yet emerge." [1]

1. American Power Just Took a Hit. That's Not Bad. [Op-Ed]. Shidore, Sarang. 
New York Times, Late Edition (East Coast); New York, N.Y.. 02 Sep 2023: A.23.

 

Alaska can seem impenetrable but these three national parks are just a drive away. The only struggle? Keeping your eyes on the road.

"Think of Alaska and you might envision remotest-of-the-remote backcountry lodges, unnerving glimpses of grizzly bears, salmon eluding the fishing line -- with the image of a bearded outdoorsman looming over it all. But you needn't be a hairy survivalist to access the land of the midnight sun. 

Of the state's eight national parks, three can be reached via a road trip from Anchorage, ideal for hikers and wildlife lovers who prefer creature comforts over a nylon tent and a fresh cat hole. 

All three offer close encounters with the Alaskan wilderness, but each has its own versions of funky gateway towns, animal-viewing opportunities and adventures for every skill level.

A Classic Alaskan Amble

Denali National Park

Denali means "the high one" in the indigenous Koyukon language, and on a clear day you can see the 20,310-foot mountain's glaciers from Anchorage, the state's largest city. But it's a long and winding 240-mile drive to reach the park, which is most crowded from June through August. 

In September the first whispers of fall arrive and the tundra flaunts its most startling foliage. Typically, snow hasn't yet compromised the trails, the bears are chomping the last of the soapberries, and the sun shines 'til 8:30 p.m., allowing for full days and restful nights.

Since you'll rent a car in Anchorage, tack on an extra day to explore Alaska's largest city before heading into the wilderness. Spend the morning at the Alaska Native Heritage Center learning about the traditions of the state's indigenous people. Then, leave the car behind for the afternoon and head to Trek Bike Rentals in the city center to grab some alternative wheels. Pedal along the Knik Arm waterway before rewarding yourself with a cup of fireweed ice cream at Wild Scoops. Return the bike and plan for an early night, so you can be fresh for the morning's drive.

Right before mile 99, stop for a break at Talkeetna, where mountaineers base themselves for attempts on the park's namesake summit (spot the climbers by their raccoon suntans and vivid spandex). Try the sourdough hot cakes at Talkeetna Roadhouse, made with a legendary starter from 1902. Look for the marked viewpoint around the 134 mile mark, where you'll be able to capture Denali in all its glory.

Drivers have a distinct advantage over the cruise ship crowds when visiting the park proper, as the first 15 miles of Denali's 92-mile Park Road are accessible by private vehicle (a "road lottery" for four days in September lets a lucky few venture further). Pull over and keep an eye out for caribou while walking Savage River Loop Trail or break a sweat on the more strenuous Savage Alpine Trail (just don't forget bear spray). Whichever you choose, base yourself out of the locally owned Denali Overlook Inn and spend an extra day hopping on and off Denali's iconic green buses, which travel past mile 15, into the park's astonishing tundra.

Crevasses and

Copper Mines

Wrangell-St. Elias

National Park

The largest national park in the U.S., Wrangell-St. Elias offers some of the most accessible glacier gazing and ice climbing in the state. Roughly seven hours to the east of Anchorage by car, the park has earned a reputation for its mining history, and its phenomenal hiking and rafting.

Follow the braided sapphire curves of the Knik River on your way out of Anchorage, then stop 103 miles in to gaze at the serrated, icy fins of the Matanuska Glacier from a bluff off Glenn Highway. Keep your eyes peeled for the curled horns of Dall sheep beginning at mile 120, where the road cuts through immense mountain passes. Continue on to Chitina, a hub for salmon fishing and the last spot to fill up on gas before braving the notorious, 60-mile washboard road to the town of McCarthy.

Plan for a rough-and-tumble two to three hours on this remote scenic byway, once the path of a prosperous copper-mining railway. Park at the McCarthy Footbridge -- where "the road ends and the adventure begins," as locals say -- and walk, bike or shuttle further into the park. Serious hikers will want to tackle a nine-mile trek from the century-old mining village of Kennecott to the abandoned Bonanza Mine.

Exploring this enormous park requires multiple days, so post up at Ma Johnson's Hotel, once a boardinghouse for miners and their families, and join an all-day glacier hike or ice climbing trip with St. Elias Alpine Guides. Once you've worked up an appetite, chow down on hand-cut curly fries and sockeye salmon at the Potato.

Out on the Water

Kenai Fjords

National Park

Though the drive from Anchorage to the seaside town of Seward-and the adjacent Kenai Fjords National Park-is a manageable 2 1/2 hours by car, the journey itself is worth savoring. Stop at Beluga Point, 20 minutes south of town, for a chance to spot the namesake porcelain-white cetaceans in the wild, then continue curving around the rugged shoreline of Turnagain Arm and the towering coastal mountains of Chugach State Park, passing Alyeska Nordic Spa along the way. Make a mental note for post-park soaking and massages.

September is the end of silver-salmon season on the Kenai Peninsula, and Cooper Landing and Russian River are some of the best spots to watch them jockey upstream to spawn.

Once in the port city of Seward, load up on caffeine and pastries at the Resurrect Art Coffee House, a former church that's now a gallery and roaster, then shop for handmade stoneware at Nakao Ceramics.

Kenai Fjords is a whale-watching and watersport-lover's paradise, with options ranging from half-day humpback viewing excursions to backcountry kayaking trips, all conveniently leaving from Seward. To get a bit of everything, splurge on an all-day Aialik Glacier kayak tour with Kayak Adventures Worldwide, which includes a lunch stop at a rapidly calving tidewater glacier. If you're keen to stay on land, challenge yourself on an eight-mile round-trip trek along the Harding Icefield Trail, pausing at Marmot Meadows to check out heavily crevassed Exit Glacier and the surly rodents who give the area its name. Back in Seward, feast on fried chicken and sweet pea hummus at the Cookery. You deserve it." [1]

1.  OFF DUTY --- Adventure & Travel: The Road to Awe --- Alaska can seem impenetrable but these three national parks are just a drive away. The only struggle? Keeping your eyes on the road. Pennington, Emily. 
Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 02 Sep 2023: D.5.