Startups Are Ultimately in the Financing by Storytelling Business

 

"Just how much is Elon Musk worth to Tesla?

Investors gave two answers of sorts on Thursday. One is $48 billion -- the current value of the contested stock options Musk holds under the terms of his 2018 pay deal as chief executive officer. Tesla shareholders re-approved the award at the company's 2024 annual general meeting after it was blocked by a Delaware court in January for being excessive.

The other answer is $17 billion. That was the approximate increase in Tesla's market value Thursday -- almost 3% in percentage terms -- after Musk posted a chart on his X account showing the shareholder vote on his pay would pass. With some big institutions deciding at the last minute, the result previously wasn't clear, making the stock move a useful gauge of the investor response.

The positive reaction is counterintuitive given the dilutive effect of the CEO's stock options on other Tesla shareholders. Brokerage Bernstein estimated that diluted earnings per share would be roughly 10% higher if the stock options were canceled. Their status still isn't clear as the AGM vote doesn't change the court's verdict. But the show of shareholder support could strengthen an appeal, or give cover for a fresh award of similar magnitude. One way or another, Musk now seems more likely to get his shares.

So why are investors enthusiastic about being diluted? The obvious explanation is that they were worried about "key person risk" and think it has been meaningfully lowered by giving Musk greater control over Tesla. The threat of the CEO losing interest in the company was central to the arguments used by Tesla's board on its investor roadshow to convince them to vote for the pay deal.

Whether or not these threats were credible, they serve to highlight one of the board's own failings: succession planning. Making Tesla less dependent on Musk is part of its job.

Perspectives on just how essential Musk is to Tesla tend to be divided by different views of the company. Look at Tesla as the global leader in a tough but still fast-growing market for electric vehicles, as many professional investors do, and the company might be better off with a new CEO.

Musk has made clear he has lost interest in the business of driving down costs, which he called "chiseling pennies." Getting more out of less has been the essence of making cars at least since Toyota's revolution in lean manufacturing. Now Tesla appears to be ceding its cost advantage as the EV pioneer to Chinese companies.

View Tesla instead as a scrappy startup still capable of delivering exponential growth from new technologies and Musk is the man for the job. This is how a lot of individual shareholders see the company, and the CEO leaned extravagantly into their hopes in his AGM speech. When Tesla solves self-driving "robotaxis," it could be worth $5 trillion, he said, and $25 trillion once it has also mastered humanoid robots. Tesla's current market value is $582 billion, which is more than twice Toyota's. This year the EV pioneer will sell about a fifth as many vehicles as the world's bestselling carmaker.

The real key-person risk embodied by Musk might be less about technological development and more about storytelling. Others can bring products to market, but nobody else gets investors to attribute such massive value to them before they appear. 

Since startups are ultimately in the financing business, this value can become a self-fulfilling prophecy as long as the technology eventually works. 

This scenario played out for Tesla with EVs, and Musk is dangling the prospect that it will happen next with robotaxis.

No wonder the pay vote passed: Even investors who think Tesla has moved on from its startup days have nothing to gain from threatening its Musk premium." [1]

1. EXCHANGE --- Heard on the Street: Tesla Can't Be All About Elon Musk. Wilmot, Stephen.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 June 2024: B.12.

Didysis dirbtinio intelekto klausimas: ar esate pasirengę už tai mokėti?

„Technologijų pramonė turi naują strategiją, kad galėtume atnaujinti savo senstančius įrenginius: dirbtinį intelektą (AI).

 

 Didelė dalis pramonės pajamų priklauso nuo to, ar kuo dažniau perkame naujausius daiktus.

 

 Tačiau ilgus metus atotrūkis tarp pažangiausių įrenginių ir senesnių versijų mažėjo, todėl vartotojai ir įmonės privertė juos išlaikyti ilgiau, nei bet kada anksčiau. Vidutinis telefonų pakeitimo laikas išaugo iki trejų metų, nešiojamieji kompiuteriai – iki ketverių, o staliniai – iki daugiau, nei šešerių.

 

 Pramonė turi planą pakeisti šią tendenciją: įtikinti jus artimiausiu metu atnaujinti arba likti nuošalyje, nes tai prideda AI į kiekvieną jūsų darbo ir gyvenimo aspektą.

 

 Ir tai tik pradžia. Nesvarbu, ar atnaujiname, ar ne, beveik kiekviena vardinio prekės ženklo technologijų įmonė lažinasi, kad daugelis iš mūsų užsisakys naujas debesyje pagrįstų AI paslaugų prenumeratas. Tos pasikartojančios pajamos gali būti reikšmingos.

 

 Pavyzdžiui, įtraukus dirbtinį intelektą prie „Microsoft Office 365“ įmonės „Copilot“ pasiūlymo forma, išlaidos vienam darbuotojui padidėja 30 dolerių per mėnesį. Tai 50 % šuolis nuo net daugiausiai funkcijų turinčios produkto versijos.

 

 Tai yra neišvengiamas visų į AI nukreiptų ažiotažų ir investicijų rezultatas. Juk tie nauji duomenų centrai ir mikroschemos savaime neatsipirks.

 

 Maždaug 300 milijardų JAV dolerių „Apple“ rinkos kapitalizacija, išaugusi po pirmadienio pranešimo apie „Apple Intelligence“ AI paslaugas, rodo, kad investuotojai lažinasi, kad tai yra teisingas žingsnis, bent jau „Apple“.

 

 „Google“ ir „Microsoft“ vertės augimas – tiek taikant plačias strategijas naujiems įrenginiams ir paslaugoms, kuriuose palaikomas dirbtinis intelektas, – rodo, kad šiose įmonėse veikia panaši investuotojų logika. Net plataus vartojimo elektronikos mažmenininkas „Best Buy“ įsitraukia į veiksmą. Bendrovės akcijos pakilo po to, kai paaiškėjo, kad vartotojai, perkantys dirbtiniu intelektu varomus nešiojamuosius kompiuterius, gali padidinti pajamas.

 

 Pasak ekspertų, kurie daugiausia dėmesio skiria realiam šių technologijų poveikiui ir pritaikymo rodikliams, dar neaišku, ar šis jaudulys ir investicijos greitai atsipirks. Yra daugybė priežasčių būti skeptiškiems. Pavyzdžiui, vartotojų biudžetai ištempti po metų infliacijos ir padidėjusių išlaidų vaizdo transliacijos, muzikos, pristatymo į namus ir kt. paslaugoms.

 

 Visi, kurie tikisi ledo ritulio lazdų tipo įrenginių pardavimo augimo, greičiausiai nusivils, sako Carolina Milanesi, technologijų analizės įmonės „Creative Strategies“ prezidentė.

 

 Iš dalies taip yra todėl, kad nauji AI varomi įrenginiai yra brangesni ir nebus visuotinai prieinami. Pavyzdžiui, nors „Apple“ pateikė ilgą naujų savo įrenginių AI funkcijų sąrašą, jos bus pasiekiamos tik naujesniuose bendrovės nešiojamuosiuose ir staliniuose kompiuteriuose, „iPhone 15 Pro“ modeliuose ir tik anglų kalba.

 

 „Apple“ įprastas „iPhone“ lustų atnaujinimo modelis rodo, kad šios funkcijos, galiausiai, bus prieinamos visuose naujausiuose įrenginiuose, tikriausiai su „iPhone 16“ modeliais, kurie, greičiausiai, pasirodys rugsėjį. Kol tai neįvyks ir „Apple“ AI modeliai nebus pristatyti visame pasaulyje visomis pagrindinėmis „Apple“ palaikomomis kalbomis, mažai tikėtina, kad jie pajudins adatą parduodant, sako Milanesi.

 

 Technologijų rinkos tyrimo įmonės IDC duomenimis, kompiuterių ir nešiojamųjų kompiuterių pardavimai pasaulyje, išskyrus Kiniją, 2024 m. išaugs tik 2,6%. Tai yra priešinga padėtis, palyginti su per pastaruosius dvejus metus staigiu kompiuterių pardavimų nuosmukiu po to, kai 2021 m. buvo pasiektas didžiausias visų dirbančiųjų iš namų eros laikotarpis. Nepaisant šio tikėtino augimo, beveik nesikeičia laiko tarpas, kurį dauguma žmonių ir įmonės laikysis savo kompiuterių.

 

 Ir tada yra stambių įmonių klientai, kurie, nepaisant didžiulio spaudimo turėti kažkokią AI strategiją, nesiryžta investuoti į tokias paslaugas, kaip OpenAI ChatGPT arba Microsoft Copilot įrankių prenumeratos visos įmonės aplinkoje, – sako Danas Faggella,  Emerj, AI tyrimų įmonės, įkūrėjas.

 

 „Wall Street Journal“ savininkas „News Corp“ bendradarbiauja su „OpenAI“ turinio licencijavimo srityje.

 

 Didžiosiose įmonėse dirbtinio intelekto pritaikymas bus lėtas, skausmingas ir jį stabdys susirūpinimas dėl duomenų suverenumo, darbuotojų atstūmimo ir galimos gėdos bei atsakomybės, kai viešai matomi AI padaro klaidų, priduria jis. Vadovų susirūpinimas dėl AI diegimo vidutinėse ir didelėse įmonėse visame pasaulyje sąnaudų per pastaruosius metus išaugo, rodo naujausia „Lucidworks“ apklausa, kuri gamina paieškos įrankius elektroninės prekybos įmonėms.

 

 Jei dirbtinio intelekto įrenginiai ir paslaugos bus priimami lėtai, išliks tik didžiausios dirbtinio intelekto įmonės ir, galbūt, kai kurios menkiausios naujos įmonės.

 

 Šis dirbtinio intelekto pramonės konsolidavimas reiškia, kad didelės įmonės, tokios, kaip „Apple“, „Microsoft“, „Meta“, „Google“ ir „Amazon“, gali panaudoti milžiniškus grynųjų pinigų fondus ir toliau investuoti į duomenų centrus, naują programinę įrangą ir gamybos pajėgumus“, – teigia analitikė Amrita Roy, kuri daugiausia dėmesio skiria makroekonominių jėgų sankirtai ir technologijų pramonei.

 

 Roy mano, kad šių įmonių investicijos yra bandymas užimti kuo didesnę rinkos dalį, kuri gali tapti „vienintelio atvejo kartos eigoje galimybe“ pakeisti mūsų gyvenimą ir darbo būdus.

 

 Milanesi mano, kad dirbtinio intelekto funkcijoms tampant vis naudingesnėms, nuolat augantys šių sistemų poreikiai mūsų įrenginiams, pradedant telefonais ir baigiant staliniais kompiuteriais, galiausiai gali pakeisti tendenciją, kad mes juos laikome vis ilgiau.

 

 Ji prognozuoja, kad, galiausiai, kompiuteriai bus keičiami kas dvejus ar trejus metus, o ne kas šešerius – tai, ko pramonė nematė dešimtmečius. Tikėtina, kad tai taip pat padidins vidutines šių naujų kompiuterių pardavimo kainas, nes tie, kurie turi AI galimybes, kainuoja daugiau. Ši tendencija taip pat gali apimti išmaniuosius telefonus, panaikindama nuolatinį pardavimų nuosmukį visame pasaulyje.

 

 „Atminkite, kad generatyvus AI nėra atliktas vieną kartą“, - sako Milanesi. „Ketinate toliau stumti skaičiavimus ir kurti didesnius modelius, todėl turėsite ir toliau atnaujinti įrenginius, kad neatsiliktumėte nuo generatyvaus AI tempo."

 

 Jei ji teisi, tikimės, kad šią tendenciją lems tikras naudingumas, kurį įmonės ir vartotojai gauna iš savo naujų, dirbtiniu intelektu varomų įrenginių, o ne tik ta pati baimė atsilikti nuo kitų, skatinanti didžiąją dalį investicijų į šią erdvę." [1]

1. EXCHANGE --- Keywords -- The Big AI Question: Are You Ready To Pay For It. Mims, Christopher.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 June 2024: B.2.

The Big AI Question: Are You Ready To Pay For It?

"The tech industry has a new strategy for getting us to upgrade our aging devices: artificial intelligence.

Much of the industry's revenue depends on us buying the newest thing as often as possible. 

But for years, the gap between cutting-edge devices and older versions has shrunk, prompting both consumers and businesses to hold on to them longer than ever. The average replacement time for phones has grown to three years, laptops to four, and desktops to more than six.

The industry has a plan to reverse this trend: Persuade you to upgrade in the near future, or be left behind as it adds AI to every aspect of your work and life.

And that's just the beginning. Whether we upgrade or not, almost every name-brand tech company is betting that many of us will pile on new subscriptions for cloud-based AI services. That recurring revenue can be significant. 

For example, adding AI to Microsoft's Office 365, in the form of the company's Copilot offering, raises the cost by $30 a month per employee. That's a 50% jump from even its most feature-rich version of the product.

This is the inevitable outcome of all of the hype and investment being poured into AI. After all, those new data centers and microchips aren't going to pay for themselves.

The approximately $300 billion pop in Apple's market capitalization since its Monday announcement of "Apple Intelligence" AI services suggests investors are betting that this is the right move, at least for Apple.

Run-ups in the value of Google and Microsoft -- both with sweeping strategies for new AI-enabled devices and services -- suggest similar investor logic is at work for those companies. Even consumer-electronics retailer Best Buy is getting in on the action. Shares in the company surged after it highlighted a potential revenue boost from consumers buying AI-powered laptops.

It isn't yet clear whether this excitement and investment is going to pay off anytime soon, according to experts who focus on the real-world impacts and adoption rates of these technologies. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical. For example, consumers' budgets are stretched after years of inflation and increased spending on services for streaming video, music, home delivery, and more.

Anyone hoping for hockey-stick like growth in device sales is likely to be disappointed, says Carolina Milanesi, president of tech analysis firm Creative Strategies.

In part, this is because new AI-powered devices are more expensive and won't be universally available. For example, while Apple detailed a long list of new AI features for its devices, they'll only be available on the company's newer notebooks and desktops, the iPhone 15 Pro models, and only in English.

Apple's usual upgrade pattern for chips in the iPhone suggests these features will eventually come to all their newest devices, probably with the iPhone 16 models, which are likely to come out in September. Until that happens, and Apple's AI models are rolled out globally in every major language Apple supports, they're unlikely to move the needle on sales, says Milanesi.

As for PCs, worldwide sales of desktops and notebooks, excluding China, are projected to grow only 2.6% in 2024, according to tech market-intelligence firm IDC. This is a reversal from the past two years of steep declines in PC sales, after their peak during the everyone-working-from-home era of 2021. Despite that expected growth, there is hardly any change in the length of time most people and businesses will be holding on to their PCs.

And then there are the big enterprise customers, who, despite enormous pressure to have some kind of AI strategy, are hesitant to invest heavily in services like companywide subscriptions to OpenAI's ChatGPT or Microsoft's Copilot tools, says Dan Faggella, founder of Emerj, a market-research company for AI.

Wall Street Journal owner News Corp has a content-licensing partnership with OpenAI.

Adoption of AI by big enterprises will be slow, painful, and held back by concerns about data sovereignty, employee pushback, and the possibility of embarrassment and liability when public-facing AIs make mistakes, he adds. Concerns among executives about the costs of rolling out AI at medium and large companies all over the world have shot up over the past year, according to a recent survey from Lucidworks, which makes search tools for e-commerce companies.

If AI-powered devices and services are adopted at a slow pace, only the biggest AI companies, and maybe some scrappy startups, will be the ones that survive.

This consolidation of the AI industry means that big companies like Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon can use their enormous pools of cash to continue to invest in data centers, new software and manufacturing capacity, says Amrita Roy, an analyst who focuses on the intersection of macroeconomic forces and the tech industry.

Roy sees these companies' investments as an attempt to capture as much market share as possible in what could prove to be a "generational opportunity" to reshape our lives and modes of work.

Milanesi thinks that as AI features become more useful, the ever-growing demands that these systems place on our devices, from phones to desktops, could eventually reverse the trend of us holding on to them longer and longer.

Her prediction is that, eventually, PCs will be replaced every two to three years, instead of every six, something the industry hasn't seen in decades. It's likely also to lead to higher average selling prices for those new PCs, because ones with AI capabilities cost more. That trend might also extend to smartphones, reversing what has been a continuing slump in sales worldwide.

"Remember that generative AI is not once and done," says Milanesi. "You're going to continue to push compute, and build models that are larger, and so you will have to continue to upgrade devices in order to keep up with the pace of generative AI."

If she's right, hopefully that trend will be driven by the genuine utility that businesses and consumers get from their new, AI-powered devices, and not merely the same kind of FOMO driving much of the investment in this space." [1]

1. EXCHANGE --- Keywords -- The Big AI Question: Are You Ready To Pay For It. Mims, Christopher.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 June 2024: B.2.