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2024 m. spalio 11 d., penktadienis

All Wars Are Political. Bad Strategy Makes Them Even More So.: Military History


"The follies of violence and rhetoric in the Vietnam War and World War II have a lot of lessons for the leaders of Israel, Iran and the next American president.

Carl von Clausewitz, the West’s premier philosopher of war, is most famous for his observation that war is an extension of politics. He also made a second point — war is subordinate to politics and so is shaped by it, making “its influence felt throughout down to the smallest operational detail.”

We see this today in the Middle East, where deadly hostage rescue attempts and bigwig assassinations, like the one that killed the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, might be guided as much by political point scoring as by a desire to end the war as quickly as possible. On the other side of the equation, Iran’s latest flock of ballistic missiles, most of which exploded harmlessly over Israel, appear to have been an act of political theater intended primarily to buoy morale on the home front.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of Iran, not to mention the future American president, would do well to read Geoffrey Wawro’s THE VIETNAM WAR: A Military History (Basic Books, 652 pp., $40). It is the best overview of America’s misadventure in Southeast Asia, and it is sure to become the standard one-volume book on the war. As we follow the agony in the Middle East, it also offers powerful lessons about the dangers of conducting an open-ended war without any real strategy.

Most histories of the Vietnam War focus on the diplomacy and politics of the conflict, going back to military operations only for major events such as the Tet offensive and the Battle of Hue City. Wawro, a historian at the University of North Texas, takes a more illuminating approach.

In Wawro’s account, the American intervention in Vietnam was a master class in how not to wage war. A mindless belief in the efficacy of sheer firepower led to devastating American bombing campaigns that, Wawro writes, “defoliated one-seventh of South Vietnam’s territory” and “created five million internal refugees” in the hopes of drawing the Vietcong into the open. The Communist foe declined to fight that way, instead engaging quickly and then withdrawing when the Americans responded with a whirlwind of artillery fire and airstrikes. Meanwhile, the more President Lyndon Johnson, no student of Clausewitz, tried to disconnect the war from politics — lying about its costs and declining to mobilize the military reserves — the more political it became, dominating American discourse and then knocking him out of the presidency.

America did no better with targeted assaults. Like Israel’s exploding beepers, the C.I.A.’s Phoenix program to assassinate members of the Vietcong “emphasized ‘capture or kill’ over accuracy,” Wawro writes, and led to innocent casualties. It also did not bring the war to a quicker conclusion, because the entire program was based on “cooked numbers,” he explains, “not reality.” The program was another way to kill people without understanding the war.

Reading Wawro’s remarkable history made me think of a new corollary to Clausewitz’s theories: The less coherent the strategy is in a war, the more politicized it will become. The United States entered the war for vague political and diplomatic reasons. (Looking tough to Cold War adversaries is not an endgame.) Two decades in, the brief and shambolic invasion of southern Laos by South Vietnamese ground forces and American air power was, he writes, “political theater, not war.” With no end in sight as the 1972 presidential election approached, the assault was motivated by President Richard Nixon’s desire to make it appear that South Vietnam was taking over the fighting. Instead, it further unsettled the region and did little to cut off enemy supply lines.

Thankfully, during World War II, the United States used politics to serve the war effort instead of the other way around, although not everyone sees it that way. In AMERICA FIRST: Roosevelt vs. Lindbergh in the Shadow of War (Doubleday, 444 pp., $35), H.W. Brands depicts the aviation celebrity Charles Lindbergh, who argued for isolationism in national radio broadcasts, as naïve but honest, while he portrays President Franklin Roosevelt as remarkably deceitful in his efforts to bring the United States into the war.

F.D.R. does offer a big target for that charge. “Your boys are not going to be sent into any foreign wars,” the president vowed in 1940 as he campaigned for an unprecedented third term. Roosevelt’s son James questioned his father about taking that stance. “Jimmy, I knew we were going to war. I was sure there was no way out of it,” his father explained. “I had to educate people to the inevitable, gradually, step by step.” Deceitful perhaps, but this politicking helped get Americans to buy into the war effort. Clausewitz would be proud.

Meanwhile, Lindbergh declines to call for the defeat of Germany as late as January 1941. Brands, a historian at the University of Texas at Austin, takes note of Lindbergh’s softness on Nazi Germany, but, in painting a sympathetic portrait of the man, leaves out many details that appear in other books like A. Scott Berg’s 1998 Pulitzer Prize-winning biography.

Brands doesn’t mention, for instance, that in May 1940 Lindbergh dismissed talk about the dangers of a Nazi victory as “hysterical chatter,” or that, in the same year, the aviator’s wife Anne Morrow Lindbergh put out “The Wave of the Future,” which argued that the new era belonged to authoritarian systems. This was a man of such suspicious loyalties that even after Pearl Harbor, Lindbergh said (in remarks that Brands also leaves out), “Britain is the real cause of all the trouble in the world today.”

Such omissions make Brands’s book feel more like a tendentious brief for Lindbergh than a dispassionate historical account. “Lindbergh got much right in his campaign against modernity,” Brands writes, “but Lindbergh got one big thing wrong” — he didn’t see that Americans were willing to intervene in foreign conflicts. I would argue that Lindbergh got a lot more wrong than that: He toyed with antisemitism, something Brands downplays, and, surprisingly for a famous aviator, really didn’t seem to have much insight into the role of air power in the war. Even in the most sympathetic reading, Clausewitz would be beside himself.

The old Prussian general is the subject of a caustic yet provocative new analysis by Azar Gat, an intellectual historian at Tel Aviv University. In THE CLAUSEWITZ MYTH: Or the Emperor’s New Clothes (Chronos, 228 pp., paperback, $15.95), Gat contends that Clausewitz’s “On War” is influential mainly because it is so confusing. “Much of the book’s reputation rests on lingering misunderstandings of what it actually means,” he concludes.

There are essentially two Clausewitzes: one who early in his career wrote much of “On War” while seeking to understand Napoleon’s rapid and crushing victories over Prussia, and another who years later was trying to chart a course for Prussia to regain its standing in Europe. Yet rather than write a second book, Gat writes, the Prussian officer went back and revised “On War” in ways that wildly contradicted some of the earlier parts.

Clausewitz had started off writing that victory depended on a quick defeat of the enemy in one big battle.

Later, he realized that many actors, especially weaker ones, might have a reason to drag the fighting out. He started revising, but didn’t have time to resolve this tension before he died in 1831.

As I read Gat’s book, I kept thinking that he missed the larger point. It may be that classic works are always greatly imperfect, offering more questions than answers, a surer route to lasting through time.

Indeed, one of Clausewitz’s most famous observations was about posing questions. Before the violence ramps up, he argues, thoughtful leaders must ask themselves: What kind of war is this? What does my nation want to achieve? And can it really do that?

These are good considerations. Pursuing an endless war of attrition, whether in Southeast Asia or the Middle East, is likely to lead only to more chaos and death. Likewise, if American leaders had seriously grappled with the endgame before invading Vietnam, not to mention Iraq or Afghanistan, those wars might have gone far better — or might not have happened at all.

Thomas E. Ricks is the Book Review’s military history columnist and the author of nine books. His next work, “We Can’t Save You,” a thriller set in Maine, will be published in June 2025." [1]

1. All Wars Are Political. Bad Strategy Makes Them Even More So.: Military History. Ricks, Thomas E.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Oct 10, 2024.

Atėjo laikas svarbiausias paslaptis vėl išsaugoti popieriuje po užraktu: apie kvantinį saugumą

 

 „Neaišku, kada kvantiniai kompiuteriai galės sulaužyti šifravimą, naudojamą jautriausiems pasaulio duomenims apsaugoti, tačiau įmonių technologijų lyderiai turi įvertinti šio scenarijaus riziką dabar.

 

 Kvantinė fizika, kurią Albertas Einšteinas garsiai laikė „baisia“, visada maitino vaizduotę neįsivaizduojamo ateities technologinio meistriškumo pažadu. Nors kelionės laiku tebėra mokslinė fantastika, kvantinis kompiuteris yra labai realus ir gali visiškai perkelti skaičiavimo galią į kitą lygį.

 

 Netgi galingiausi tradiciniai kompiuteriai naudoja dvejetainius skaitmenis arba bitus, kurie gali būti nuliai arba vienetai. 

 

Kvantiniai kompiuteriai naudoja kvantinius bitus arba kubitus, kurių kiekvienas tuo pačiu momentu vaizduoja ir saugo informaciją ir nuliu, ir vienetu, tai vadinamą superpozicija. Tokios mašinos per sekundės dalį gali surūšiuoti daugybę galimų problemos sprendimų ir pateikti tikėtiną atsakymą.

 

 Pasak IBM tyrimų direktoriaus Dario Gilo, IBM ketina iki 2029 m. pristatyti gedimams atsparią, nuo klaidų taisytą sistemą ir tikisi pasiekti „kvantinį pranašumą“ su savo sistemomis dar iki to momento. Tai reiškia, kad kai kurias problemas galima išspręsti greičiau arba tiksliau, nei tradiciniai kompiuteriai, pateikiant tikslius problemų sprendimus, kurių atsakymus galima tik įvertinti šiandien.

 

 Didžiulis klausimas, pasak Gilo, yra tai, kada šis tyrimas padės sukurti vadinamuosius gedimams atsparius kvantinius kompiuterius, kurie galės ištaisyti klaidas, atsirandančias, kai kvantinės mašinos sąveikauja su išorinio pasaulio trukdžiais, įskaitant garsą, mikrobangas ar temperatūros svyravimus. Šios sąveikos sutrikdo trapią kvantinę būseną, kurioje šios mašinos yra veiksmingos, susiaurina langą, kuriame jos gali veikti ir atlikti darbą.

 

 Gedimams atsparus kvantinis kompiuteris galės neribotą laiką šalinti problemas, suteikiant jam galimybę sulaužyti šifravimo algoritmus, kuriuos įmonės ir vyriausybės naudoja, siekdamos apsaugoti labiausiai jautrią kainai ir svarbiausią informaciją, sakė Gil.

 

 Jis apskaičiavo, kad toks momentas pagrįstai gali įvykti maždaug 2035 m., tačiau, nepaisant laiko, jis yra įsitikinęs, kad tai įvyks.

 

 "Tikrovė tokia, kad daiktas, kurį panaudojome šiai galutinei gynybos linijai, yra pažeidžiamas. Jis bus sulaužytas. Nėra jokių "jeigu" ar "bet", - sakė Gil.

 

 Kam nerimauti dėl scenarijaus, kuris gresia dešimtmetį ar daugiau ateityje? Dėl scenarijaus kai kurie vadina „nuimkite derlių dabar, iššifruokite vėliau“.

 

 Įsivaizduojama, kad įsilaužėliai vagia užšifruotus duomenis šiandien ir sėdi prie jų metų metus, tikėdamiesi, kad kada nors ateityje supras jų vertę, kai kvantiniai kompiuteriai galės iššifruoti informaciją, sakė Markusas Pflitschas, kvantinių skaičiavimų įmonės Terra Quantum įkūrėjas ir vadovas.

 

 Kvantinė kompiuterija jau pakankamai pažengusi į priekį, kad įmonės jau dabar galėtų pradėti strategiją Q dienai, kai kvantiniai kompiuteriai gali sulaužyti klasikinį šifravimą, sakė Pflitschas. Tai reiškia, kad reikia priimti vadinamuosius kvantiškai saugius algoritmus, kurių negali nulaužti kitos kvantinės technologijos, nes jie naudoja problemas, kurias sunku išspręsti kvantiniams kompiuteriams.

 

 Rugpjūčio mėn. Nacionalinis standartų ir technologijų institutas, Prekybos departamento agentūra, paskelbė tris naujus postkvantinio šifravimo algoritmus.

 

 Kai kurios įmonės jau juda į priekį. Tačiau daugeliui įmonių ir asmenų jų naudojamose paslaugose bus integruoti kvantiniai saugūs algoritmai, kaip šiandien daugelyje programinės įrangos ir paslaugų yra integruotas šifravimas." [1]


1. It Is Time To Worry About Quantum Security. Rosenbush, Steven.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Oct 2024: B.5.

It is time to preserve most important secrets on paper under lock again: About quantum security


"It isn't certain when quantum computers will be able to break the encryption used to protect the world's most sensitive data, but corporate technology leaders need to assess the risks of this scenario now.

Quantum physics, famously regarded by Albert Einstein as "spooky," has always fed the imagination with the promise of unimaginable future technological prowess. While time travel remains science fiction, quantum computing is very real and holds the potential to take computing power to another level entirely.

Even the most powerful traditional computers use binary digits, or bits, which can either be zeroes or ones. Quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits, which represent and store information in both zeroes and ones simultaneously, known as superposition. Such machines have the potential to sort through a vast number of possible solutions to a problem within a fraction of a second to come up with a likely answer.

IBM is on track to deliver a fault-tolerant, error-corrected system by 2029, according to IBM Director of Research Dario Gil, and expects to achieve "quantum advantage" with its systems even before that point. That means solving some problems faster or more accurately than traditional computers by providing precise solutions to problems whose answers can only be estimated today.

The big question, Gil said, is when this research will lead to so-called fault-tolerant quantum computers, which will have the capacity to correct the errors that occur when quantum machines interact with interferences from the outside world, including sound, microwaves or temperature fluctuations. Those interactions disrupt the fragile quantum state in which these machines are effective, narrowing the window in which they can function and the work they can do.

A fault-tolerant quantum computer will be able to hammer away at problems indefinitely, giving them wherewithal to break encryption algorithms that companies and governments use to protect their most price-sensitive and important information, Gil said.

That moment might reasonably occur by around 2035, he estimated, but regardless of the timing, he is convinced it will happen.

"The reality is that the thing that we used for that ultimate line of defense is vulnerable. It will be broken. There's no ifs or buts about it," Gil said.

Why worry about a scenario that is looming perhaps a decade or more in the future? Because of a scenario some call "harvest now, decrypt later."

It envisions hackers stealing encrypted data today and sitting on it for years, hoping to realize its value at some point in the future when quantum computers are able to decrypt the information, said Markus Pflitsch, founder and chief executive of quantum-computing company Terra Quantum.

Quantum computing has already progressed enough that companies can begin strategizing now for Q Day, the point at which quantum computers can break classic encryption, Pflitsch said. That means adopting so-called quantum-safe algorithms that can't be hacked by other quantum technology because they make use of problems that are difficult for quantum computers to solve.

In August, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, an agency of the Commerce Department, published three new algorithms for post-quantum encryption.

Some companies are already moving ahead. But for many companies and individuals, quantum safe algorithms will be built into the services that they use, just as encryption is built into many software and services today." [1]

1. It Is Time To Worry About Quantum Security. Rosenbush, Steven.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 10 Oct 2024: B.5.

Apdovanojimas, Japonijoje atomines bombas išgyvenusiems, žmonėms atspindi naujus pasaulinius rūpesčius

 

 „Apdovanojimas, Japonijoje atominę bombą išgyvenusiems, žmonėms skiriamas, nerimaujant dėl ​​galimo branduolinio ginklo panaudojimo Ukrainoje ir dėl branduolinio ginklo platinimo Artimuosiuose Rytuose ir Azijoje.

 

 Skelbdamas apdovanojimą Norvegijos Nobelio komitetas išreiškė baimę, kad iškilo grėsmė branduolinio ginklo naudojimo „tabu“, nenurodydamas nė vienos konkrečios šalies.

 

 Tačiau Rusijos prezidentas Vladimiras V. Putinas nuolat grasino panaudoti taktinius branduolinius ginklus Ukrainoje, nors Amerikos ir NATO pareigūnai teigė neaptikę, kad Maskva ruošiasi juos panaudoti.

 

 Atskirai Kinija sparčiai plečia jos branduolinį arsenalą, kartu formuoja stipresnį aljansą su Rusija, kuri turi aukšto lygio branduolines technologijas.

 

 Abi šalys vis labiau bendradarbiauja su Iranu, kuriam, kaip manoma, likę metai, kol pavyks sukurti branduolinę galvutę, tinkančią raketai.

 

 Kyla susirūpinimas, kad Maskva gali būti pasirengusi aprūpinti Teheraną branduolinėmis technologijomis mainais už nuolatinę Irano paramą Rusijai Ukrainoje.

 

 Šiaurės Korėja taip pat yra neformalios „pasipriešinimo ašies“, Amerikos vadovaujamai, tvarkai dalis, ji turi aktyvią branduolinio ginklo programą ir vis sudėtingesnes raketas.

 

 Be to, nerimaujama, kad įvykiai Ukrainoje kelia pavojų pagrindinių civilinių atominių elektrinių saugumui.“ [1]

 

Lietuvos propaganda įstrigo paradoksalioje būklėje. Ji vadina tuos NATO vadovus, kurie grūdasi į rusų apgyvendintas teritorijas Ukrainoje, rizikuodami sukelti pasaulinį branduolinį karą, didvyriais, o tuos kurie pasisako už taikos derybas vadina pragaro (?) taikos balandžiais. Tikėsimės, kad Dievo bausmės laukti nereiks, rinkėjai rinkimų metu nubaus visus, keliančius branduolinio pavojaus riziką ir kišančius Vakarų papročius tiems, kurie jų nenori. 


1. An award for Japanese survivors reflects new global concerns. Erlanger, Steven.  New York Times (Online) New York Times Company. Oct 11, 2024.