New Administration Could Rewrite How America Does Business

"President-elect Donald Trump's victory in Tuesday's election has business leaders contemplating how the new administration could reshape policies ranging from the environment to technology and corporate taxes.

Trump's stated goals have been to freeze new climate regulations, introduce protectionist measures for American-made products -- particularly in high-tech industries -- and streamline the bureaucracy and cost of the federal government, among others.

Republican control of the Senate should boost Trump's efforts, including by easing the way for swift approval of his agency nominees and leadership of oversight committees.

Here are some areas where the new administration could shift or even reverse the Biden administration's strategies.

Technology

-- AI deregulation. Trump will likely take a business-friendly approach to federal oversight of artificial intelligence. Big Tech and startups alike have pushed for a light touch on AI safety and transparency rules, which they say would keep innovation flowing. The Biden administration last year issued an executive order on AI, which Trump has said he would dismantle. The order covered things like monitoring the training and outputs of AI models.

Doing away with the order could cut red tape and speed up product launches, said Daniel Castro, vice president of the Big Tech-funded think tank Information Technology and Innovation Foundation. On the other hand, it could make things harder for enterprises, which would have to take on the onus of investigating AI model safety.

-- On-shoring of chip manufacturing. The bipartisan Chips and Science Act, signed into law by President Biden in 2022, has recently come under attack by Republicans, including Trump, who have criticized the federal government's role. The bill is designed to funnel some $53 billion in subsidies and tax credits toward domestic semiconductor manufacturing facilities.

Financial regulation

-- Biden rules review. Wall Street lobbyists on Wednesday said they were hopeful the incoming administration would take a hard look at some of the Biden administration's more controversial proposals, including capital requirements for big banks and consumer-finance protections.

History suggests undoing many Biden rules might not be easy. If Republicans succeed in winning the House as well as the Senate, they may invoke the Congressional Review Act, which allows lawmakers to vote to overturn regulations finalized within a 60-day legislative window. In 2016, a Republican-controlled Congress used the act to roll back 16 regulations issued in the final months of the Obama administration.

This time around, Biden's regulators made a push to finalize key regulations early, putting them outside the window for congressional review. That means that for many Biden regulations, an incoming Trump administration would be forced to go through a lengthy repeal-and-replace process.

-- Private equity's retail push. Trump's victory will likely aid private equity's efforts to raise money from individual investors, an industry priority. During the first Trump administration, SEC leadership expanded the pool of so-called retail investors allowed to back private-equity funds, and the Labor Department sought to allow private equity into workers' retirement plans.

-- Carried-interest tax. In Congress, Republican victories lower private equity's anxiety about the tax negotiations expected to take place next year. Now, the carried-interest tax treatment -- an industry priority often criticized by Democrats -- is unlikely to be seriously threatened, while key provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefiting the industry will more likely be extended, lobbyists say.

Climate

-- The Inflation Reduction Act's future. On the campaign trail, Trump promised to claw back all or part of the Inflation Reduction Act, the Biden administration's signature climate policy. It is unclear if Republicans would pursue a full repeal of the law, said Julien Dumoulin-Smith, an analyst at Jefferies. The law, which has routed funding to many red states, has won support from some lawmakers whose districts have benefited from new investments.

-- EPA emissions rules. Environmental Protection Agency emissions rules for cars, buses and heavy-duty trucks that were issued this year are likely to come under scrutiny by the Trump administration. The agency's stricter rules for tailpipe emissions stretch out over several years, with targets from 2027 to 2032. The trucking industry also is supposed to reduce emissions over a similar timeline. Trucking groups are suing over the mandate, which the American Trucking Associations says is unachievable with the current state of zero-emissions technology." [1]

1. Election 2024: New Administration Could Rewrite How America Does Business. Wsj.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 08 Nov 2024: A.3.

 

Vokietijos vyriausybė žlugo po 3 metų egzistavimo

  „BERLYNAS – Susiskaldžiusi Vokietijos koalicinė vyriausybė trečiadienį žlugo, o, ekonominių sunkumų patiriančią, tautą įvedė į politinę krizę ir padidino netikrumą Europai, regionui grumiantis su Donaldo Trumpo pergale JAV rinkimuose.

 

 Kancleris Olafas Scholzas dėl nesutarimų dėl ekonominės politikos atleido iš pareigų finansų ministrą Christianą Lindnerį, verslui palankios Laisvosios demokratų partijos pirmininką – partijos, mažiausios jo trišalės laisvosios rinkos liberalų, socialdemokratų ir žaliųjų koalicijos narį.

 

 Trys partneriai nesutarė keliose politikos srityse nuo tada, kai prieš trejus metus vyriausybei nepavyko pasiekti galutinių rinkimų. 

 

Visai neseniai ginčas buvo susijęs su tuo, kaip ištraukti didžiausią Europos ekonomiką iš užsispyrusio nuosmukio, dėl kurio ji tapo viena prasčiausių regiono ekonomikų.

 

 Scholzas sakė, kad sieks paramos iš opozicinių partijų, kad iki metų pabaigos būtų patvirtinti keli įstatymų projektai, kurie dabar bus priimti parlamente. Jis sakė tada paraginsiąs balsuoti dėl pasitikėjimo, kuris galėtų atverti kelią pirmalaikiams rinkimams.

 

 „Esu priverstas žengti šį žingsnį, kad mūsų šalis nebūtų sugadinta“, – sakė Scholzas. „Mums reikia veikiančios vyriausybės, turinčios jėgų priimti mūsų šaliai reikalingus sprendimus“.

 

 Pagal Vokietijos po Antrojo pasaulinio karo konstituciją tik federalinis prezidentas Frankas Walteris Steinmeieris turi teisę paleisti parlamentą ir įsakyti surengti išankstinį balsavimą, o tai greičiausiai neįvyks iki kovo mėn. Jei per rinkimus nepavyks surinkti aiškios daugumos, kaip rodo apklausos, naujos vyriausybės sudarymas gali užtrukti kelis mėnesius.

 

 „Mes, vokiečiai, negalime sau leisti kivirčytis dar vienerius metus antrojo Trumpo mandato fone“, – sakė aukšto rango centro dešinės opozicijos įstatymų leidėjas Norbertas Rotgenas. „Europai reikia Vokietijos ir jei vyriausybė negali priimti iššūkio, ji turėtų eiti“.

 

 Dėl politinio susiskaldymo Europą vis sunkiau valdyti. Pastaruoju metu antistablišmentinėms jėgoms tenkanti balsų dalis išaugo, tačiau joms dažnai nepavykdavo surinkti visiškos daugumos, o centristus pastūmėjo į aljansus, kuriuos sužlugdė jų mažas politinis bendrumas. Prancūziją valdo mažumos vyriausybė po to, kai rinkimai paleido parlamentą.

 

 Didėjantis politinis vakuumas atsiranda, kai Europa susiduria su sunkiais sprendimais, kaip reaguoti į D. Trumpą, kurio planai dėl muitų Europos importui gali pakenkti regiono ekonomikai.

 

 Išrinktasis prezidentas taip pat pažadėjo atšaukti karinę paramą Šiaurės Atlanto Sutarties Organizacijos narėms, kurios, jo nuomone, nepakankamai išleidžia gynybai. Daugeliui Europos šalių buvo sunku padidinti karines išlaidas arba dėl to, kad nepasiekė politinio sutarimo šiuo klausimu, kaip Vokietijos atveju, arba dėl didelės valstybės skolos ir ribotos fiskalinės erdvės, kaip Prancūzija. Italija arba JK.

 

 Scholzo koalicija taip pat sunkiai reaguodavo į didėjantį nepasitenkinimą dėl imigracijos.

 

 Tačiau didžiausias iššūkis yra gili ir sunkiai įveikiama ekonominė krizė, kuri, anot ekonomistų, ypač kelia grėsmę ilgalaikėms Vokietijos perspektyvoms. Ekonomistai tikisi, kad nuo 2019-ųjų, vos auganti, Vokietijos ekonomika šiemet trauksis antrus metus iš eilės. Pramonės gamyba šalyje nuo 2017 m. sumažėjo, o įmonių investicijos didžiąją laikotarpio dalį mažėjo." [1]

 

1. World News: Germany's Government Collapses After 3 Years. Bertrand, Benoit.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2024: A.18. 

Germany's Government Collapses After 3 Years

 

"BERLIN -- Germany's fractious coalition government collapsed on Wednesday, tipping the economically embattled nation into a political crisis and adding uncertainty for Europe as the region grapples with Donald Trump's election win in the U.S.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner, chairman of the pro-business Free Democratic Party -- the smallest member of his three-way coalition of free-market liberals, social democrats and Greens -- because of disagreements over economic policy, a spokesman for Scholz said.

The three partners had been at odds in several policy areas since the government emerged from an inconclusive election three years ago. More recently, the dispute had focused on how to pull Europe's largest economy out of a stubborn recession that has turned it into one of the region's worst performers.

Scholz said he would seek support from opposition parties to secure approval for a number of bills now making their way through Parliament by the end of the year. He said he would then call for a vote of confidence that could pave the way for early elections.

"I am forced to take this step in order to prevent our country from being damaged," Scholz said. "We need a working government with the strength to make the necessary decisions for our country."

Under Germany's post-World War II constitution, only the federal president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, has the power to dissolve Parliament and order an early ballot, which is unlikely to happen until March. If an election fails to deliver a clear majority, as polls suggest, it could take months after that to form a new government.

"We Germans can't afford to bicker for another year against the backdrop of a second Trump mandate," said Norbert Rottgen, a senior center-right opposition lawmaker. "Europe needs Germany and if the government can't rise to the challenge, it should go."

Political fragmentation has made Europe increasingly hard to govern. Antiestablishment forces have seen their share of the vote grow recently, but they have often failed to gather outright majorities, pushing centrists into alliances that have been hamstrung by their small political common ground. France is being ruled by a minority government after elections delivered a hung parliament.

The growing political vacuum comes as Europe faces tough decisions on how to respond to Trump, whose plans for tariffs on European imports could damage the region's economy.

The president-elect has also vowed to withdraw military support for European members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization he deems don't spend enough on defense. Many European countries have struggled to ramp up military spending, either because they haven't forged a political consensus on the issue, as in the case of Germany, or because of high public debt and limited fiscal space, as in the case of France, Italy or the U.K.

Scholz's coalition has also struggled to respond to mounting discontent over immigration.

But its biggest challenge is a deep and intractable economic crisis that economists say is particularly threatening to Germany's long-term prospects. Economists expect the German economy, which has barely grown since 2019, to shrink this year for the second year in a row. Industrial production in the country has fallen since 2017 and corporate investment has trended lower over much of the period." [1]

1. World News: Germany's Government Collapses After 3 Years. Bertrand, Benoit.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 07 Nov 2024: A.18.