Russia Explores Oil-Merger Plan

"Moscow is working on a plan to merge its biggest oil companies into a single national champion, a deal that would tighten President Vladimir Putin's grip on global energy markets and Russia's economy.

Under one scenario being discussed, state-backed giant Rosneft Oil would absorb fellow state producer Gazprom Neft -- a subsidiary of natural-gas exporter Gazprom -- and independently owned Lukoil, said people familiar with the talks. 

All three are under U.S. sanctions.

The resulting company would be the world's second-biggest crude producer, after Saudi Arabia's Aramco. Pumping nearly three times the output of Exxon Mobil, the biggest U.S. producer, a combined entity could allow Russia to wring higher prices from customers in places such as India and China.

Talks among executives and government officials have taken place over the past few months. It is uncertain whether they will result in a deal, and details of any plan could change, the people said.

Speculation about mergers and takeovers periodically sweeps Moscow and St. Petersburg, but no big energy deals have transpired in the past decade. Obstacles include opposition from some Rosneft and Lukoil executives, as well as the challenge of amassing the funds to pay Lukoil shareholders, said some of the people.

A Kremlin spokesperson said the administration had no knowledge of a deal.

A Rosneft spokesman said that The Wall Street Journal's reporting was false, based on information available to him. He said in an email that the Journal's article "may be aimed at creating competitive market advantages in the interests of other market participants." Asked by phone what information Rosneft considered to be inaccurate, the spokesman said he wasn't allowed to answer questions.

A Lukoil spokesman said neither the company nor its shareholders were in the process of merger talks "with any parties as this would not be in the interest of the company."

Spokesmen for Gazprom Neft and Gazprom didn't respond to requests for comment.

The talks underscore Putin's desire to muster the energy sector to support his military's effort, said the people familiar with the talks. The Russian president, some of them said, envisions a juggernaut able to compete with Saudi Arabia when oil demand, while still enormous, is slowing because of greener alternatives.

Oil and gas are the lifeblood of Russia's economy, supplying nearly a third of federal revenue, and handing Putin influence worldwide. Russia's success at stabilizing its economy in the face of Western sanctions is in large part because of its oil industry. A champion exporter might be better able to withstand Western sanctions, which have complicated exports, hamstrung big new oil-and-gas projects and snarled payments, the people said. The talks, while influenced by the conflict in Ukraine, also are meant to prepare Russia for an eventual post-conflict thawing in economic relations.

Bringing Lukoil under direct state control would mark a big step toward fully unwinding the privatization of Russia's mineral riches after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The leaders of the three oil giants are considered among the most powerful players in Putin's orbit." [1]

1. World News: Russia Explores Oil-Merger Plan. Paris, Costas; Wallace, Joe; Hirtenstein, Anna.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Nov 2024: A.7.

Tarifų planas palieka gamintojus padalintus į priešingas stovyklas --- Kai kurie vadovai mano, kad tai padeda vykdyti vidaus užsakymus; kiti sako, kad tai bus brangu

  „Gamybos vadovai nesutaria, ar išrinktojo prezidento Donaldo Trumpo kampanijos pažadas padidinti importo muitus padidins gamybą JAV.

 

 Kai kurie didelės vertės ir tikslių produktų gamintojai teigė esantys optimistiškai nusiteikę, kad Trumpo prekybos politika sugrąžins kai kuriuos klientus į JAV.

 

 Kiti bendrovių vadovai teigė, kad padidinus muitus prekėms iš tokių šalių, kaip Kinija, greičiausiai, jie perkels gamybą į kitas žemų sąnaudų šalis. Jie teigė, kad jų klientai nepalaikys norų mokėti daugiau už JAV pagamintas prekes.

 

 „Mūsų patirtis rodo, kad mūsų gaminių laivas tiesiogine prasme išplaukė iš JAV gamybos“, – sakė Ilinojaus namų apyvokos reikmenų bendrovės „Honey-Can-Do International“ generalinis direktorius Steve'as Greensponas. „Negirdėjau istorijų apie sėkmingą šių produktų grąžinimą į JAV."

 

 Trumpo kampanija nustatė, kad muitai importuotoms prekėms yra būdas gauti pajamų federalinei vyriausybei ir paskatinti įmones investuoti į daugiau JAV įsikūrusios gamybos centrus. Trumpas pasiūlė 60% muitų importui iš Kinijos – panašiai kaip pridėti 60 dolerių mokestį prie kiekvienos 100 dolerių vertės prekių – siekdamas išspręsti mažas kainas, kurioms JAV bendrovės teigia negalinčios prilygti.

 

 Po rinkimų dienos investuotojai siūlė plieno ir aliuminio įmonių ir kitų JAV įsikūrusių gamintojų akcijas, lažindamiesi, kad jie laimės iš D. Trumpo politikos, skatinančios daugiau vietinės gamybos.

 

 Tarifai, kuriuos Trumpas 2018 metais įvedė importuojamam plienui ir aliuminiui, iš esmės lieka galioti. Vėliau D. Trumpas įvedė muitus tūkstančiams gatavų prekių ir medžiagų iš Kinijos, siekdamas išspręsti JAV gamintojų susirūpinimą, kad dėl aukštesnių vidaus metalų kainų jie atsiduria nepalankioje padėtyje, palyginti su užsienio konkurentais, parduodančiais produktus, pagamintus iš pigesnio plieno ar aliuminio.

 

 Lourenco Goncalves, plieno gamintojos Cleveland-Cliffs generalinis direktorius, šią savaitę sakė, kad vietinei plieno pramonei reikia daugiau pagalbos prieš importą. Dabar JAV plieno kainos yra vienos didžiausių pasaulyje.

 

 „Tikiuosi daug daugiau veiksmų, susijusių su vidaus rinkos apsauga“, – konferencinio pokalbio metu sakė Goncalvesas.

 

 JAV plieno gamintojai per pastaruosius penkerius metus pastatė naujas gamyklas, tikėdamiesi didesnės paklausos. Gamintojams gali būti sunku rasti klientų savo produkcijai, jei plieno kainos kiltų dėl didesnių tarifų, sakė verslo tyrimų įmonės CRU Group analitikas Joshas Spooresas. „Dabar mums tikrai reikia, kad būtų palaikoma didesnė plieno paklausa“, – sakė jis.

 

 Vadovų teigimu, didesnių išlaidų, susijusių su tiekimo grandinių ir gamybos perkėlimu į namus, padengimas gali pakenkti pelnui. Tarifų įsisavinimas taip pat gali būti brangus.

 

 Pramoginių automobilių gamintoja „Polaris“ praėjusiais metais pranešė, kad tarifai komponentams iš Kinijos jos visureigiams įmonei kainuoja 100 mln. dolerių. „Polaris“ teigė, kad kai kuriuos komponentus pradėjo pirkti iš Meksikos, kad išvengtų tarifų.

 

 Donaldas Allanas, „Stanley Black & Decker“ generalinis direktorius, praėjusią savaitę sakė, kad įrankių įmonė, greičiausiai, padidins kainas ir perkels gamybą iš Kinijos, jei Trumpas taikys papildomus muitus iš šalies importuojamoms prekėms. Allanas teigė, kad mažai tikėtina, kad gamyba bus perkelta į JAV.

 

 Anot bendrovės generalinio direktoriaus Edo Rosenfeldo, per ateinančius metus avalynės ir aksesuarų pardavėjas Stevenas Maddenas planuoja sumažinti galimų Kinijos prekių tarifų poveikį, perkeldamas gamybą į Kambodžą, Vietnamą ir Meksiką. Rosenfeldas šią savaitę analitikams sakė, kad bendrovė siekia, kad maždaug ketvirtadaliui jos verslo būtų taikomi galimi tarifai kiniškoms prekėms, palyginti su šiuo metu mažiau, nei puse.

 

 Elektronikos gamintojai taip pat pradėjo migruoti į Pietryčių Aziją iš Kinijos dėl tarifų ir to, ką jie apibūdina, kaip padidėjusią riziką, vykdant verslą šalyje.

 

 Prekybos specialistų teigimu, D. Trumpo pasiūlymas dėl tarifų šį žingsnį paspartintų. Įmonės, kurios negali pakankamai greitai pakeisti tiekimo grandinių į kitas šalis, greičiausiai, turėtų gerokai pabranginti savo įrenginius, sakė specialistai.

 

 2019 m. „Apple“ ir kitos elektroniką parduodančios įmonės susidūrė su galimu 10 % muito tarifu importui iš Kinijos. Tačiau per telefono skambutį „Apple“ generalinis direktorius Timas Cookas asmeniškai lobizavo Trumpą, paaiškindamas, kaip tarifai padidins „iPhone“ kainas ir trukdys konkuruoti su konkurentais, tokiais kaip „Samsung“, rašo „The Wall Street Journal“. Per kelias dienas Trumpo administracija panaikino tarifus, kurie turėtų įtakos daugeliui įrenginių, įskaitant „iPhone“.

 

 Kai kurie teigia, kad tarifai prisidėtų prie gamybos sugrąžinimo į JAV Matthew Moore'as, buvęs „Apple“ inžinierius, dirbęs kurdamas „iPhone“ ir „Apple Watch“ gamybos dizainą, teigė, kad tarifai galėtų geriau apsaugoti atnaujintas pastangas kurti vietinę gamybą.

 

 2022 m. Moore'as įkūrė bendrovę „Cruz“, kuri gamina belaidžius blenderius. Šiuo metu bendrovė savo gaminį surenka Kinijoje, tačiau jis ketina perkelti šį darbą į JAV.

 

 „Amerikai reikia tam tikrų tarifų“, - sakė Moore'as. „Turime atstatyti mūsų gamybos bazę.“" [1]

 

60 procentų muitų tarifai importui iš visur, įskaitant Meksiką, sustabdytų žiurkių lenktynes ​​ir atkurtų JAV gamybos bazę.

 

1. U.S. News: Tariff Plan Leaves Manufacturers Divided --- Some executives see it aiding domestic orders; others say it will prove costly. Tita, Bob; Tilley, Aaron.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Nov 2024: A.4.

Tariff Plan Leaves Manufacturers Divided --- Some executives see it aiding domestic orders; others say it will prove costly

"Manufacturing executives are split on whether President-elect Donald Trump's campaign promise to raise tariffs on imports would increase production in the U.S.

Some makers of high-value and precision products said they are optimistic Trump's trade policies will draw some customers back to the U.S.

Other company executives said raising tariffs on goods from countries like China would likely cause them to shift production to other low-cost countries. They said their customers won't support paying more for U.S.-made items.

"Our experience has been that, for our products, the ship has literally sailed for U.S. manufacturing," said Steve Greenspon, chief executive of Illinois-based housewares company Honey-Can-Do International. "I have not heard stories about success moving these products back to the United States."

Trump's campaign identified tariffs on imported goods as a way to generate revenue for the federal government and encourage companies to invest in more U.S.-based manufacturing. Trump has proposed 60% duties on imports from China -- akin to adding a $60 charge to every $100 worth of goods -- to address low prices that U.S. companies say they can't match.

After Election Day, investors bid up shares of steel and aluminum companies and other U.S.-based manufacturers, betting that they will be winners from Trump's policies to promote more domestic production.

Tariffs that Trump imposed in 2018 on imported steel and aluminum largely remain in place. Trump later put tariffs on thousands of finished goods and materials from China to address U.S. manufacturers' concerns that higher domestic metal prices put them at a disadvantage against foreign competitors selling products made with cheaper steel or aluminum.

Lourenco Goncalves, CEO of steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs, said this week that the domestic steel industry needs more help against imports. The U.S. now has some of the world's highest steel prices.

"I anticipate a lot more actions in terms of protecting the domestic market," Goncalves said during a conference call.

U.S. steelmakers over the past five years have built new mills in anticipation of higher demand. It might be difficult for producers to find customers for their output if steel prices rise as a result of more tariffs, said Josh Spoores, an analyst for business-research firm CRU Group. "What we really need now is to see support for more steel demand," he said.

Absorbing higher costs associated with relocating supply chains and production back home could hurt profits, executives have said. Absorbing tariffs can be costly, too.

Recreational vehicle maker Polaris said last year that tariffs on components from China for its all-terrain vehicles cost the company $100 million a year. Polaris said it had started to buy some components from Mexico to avoid the tariffs.

Donald Allan, CEO of Stanley Black & Decker, said last week that the tool company would likely raise prices and shift production out of China if Trump levies additional tariffs on goods imported from the country. Allan said shifting production to the U.S. is unlikely.

Over the next year, footwear and accessories seller Steven Madden plans to reduce its exposure to potential tariffs on Chinese goods by moving manufacturing to countries including Cambodia, Vietnam and Mexico, according to Ed Rosenfeld, the company's CEO. Rosenfeld told analysts this week that the company is aiming for roughly a quarter of its business to be subject to potential tariffs on Chinese goods, down from just under half currently.

Electronics manufacturers have also started migrating to Southeast Asia from China as a result of tariffs and what they describe as increased risks when doing business in the country.

Trump's tariff proposal would accelerate this move, according to trade specialists. Companies that can't switch their supply chains quickly enough to other countries likely would have to increase the price of their devices significantly, the specialists said.

In 2019, Apple and other firms selling electronics were facing down a potential of 10% tariff on imports from China. But in a phone call, Apple CEO Tim Cook personally lobbied Trump, explaining how tariffs would increase iPhones prices and hamper its ability to compete against rivals like Samsung, The Wall Street Journal reported. In a matter of days, the Trump administration pulled back on tariffs that would affect a number of devices, including the iPhone.

Some say tariffs would contribute to bringing back manufacturing to the U.S. Matthew Moore, a former Apple engineer who worked on manufacturing design for the iPhone and Apple Watch, said tariffs could better protect renewed efforts to build up domestic manufacturing.

In 2022, Moore co-founded a company called Cruz, which makes a cordless blender. The company currently assembles its product in China, but he is looking to move that work to the U.S.

"America needs some tariffs," Moore said. "We need to rebuild our manufacturing base."" [1]

60 percent tariffs on imports from everywhere, including Mexico, would stop the rat races, and rebuild the USA manufacturing base.

1. U.S. News: Tariff Plan Leaves Manufacturers Divided --- Some executives see it aiding domestic orders; others say it will prove costly. Tita, Bob; Tilley, Aaron.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 09 Nov 2024: A.4.