President-elect Donald Trump's allies and picks to lead powerful U.S. spy agencies think that conflict in Ukraine was produced by NATO actions

"WASHINGTON -- President-elect Donald Trump's pick to lead powerful U.S. spy agencies has often seemed to embrace Washington's adversaries and questioned key American intelligence judgments, raising alarm among veteran intelligence officials and the wider national security establishment.

If confirmed as director of National Intelligence, former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii would hold a post whose extensive powers include briefing the president on the most sensitive U.S. secrets, exercising authority over the $100 billion annual U.S. spy budget, and holding sway over which secrets to declassify.

Gabbard, an Army reserve lieutenant colonel who served in Iraq but has little intelligence experience, has yet to lay out her plans for the position. But her past comments preview the potential internal clashes she could have with intelligence professionals.

"Of course there's going to be resistance to change from the 'swamp' in Washington," she said in a Fox News interview on Wednesday. Her goal, she said, will be "to defend the safety, security and freedom of the American people."

In interviews and social-media posts, Gabbard has blamed the NATO alliance for conflict in Ukraine and echoed a Kremlin claim that Ukraine hosted U.S.-funded labs researching dangerous pathogens.

She later clarified her remarks, saying she was worried about the danger amid the conflict of pathogens escaping from Ukrainian biological laboratories. U.S. funding of Ukrainian biological labs has focused on efforts to improve security and prevent the escape of pathogens.

In 2017, as a Democratic congresswoman, Gabbard questioned a U.S. intelligence assessment that Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons against his own people and, in that same year, made an unannounced trip to Syria to meet with Assad.

Reaction on Capitol Hill has been mixed, with some in Trump's Republican Party saying they approved his choice of Gabbard, who after a brief presidential run in 2020, left the Democratic Party and joined the GOP. "My worldview might not be the same worldview as hers, but apparently it's pretty close to what Donald Trump wants, and that's what's important," said Rep. Mike Simpson (R., Idaho).

If confirmed, she would oversee U.S. intelligence agencies as they are grappling with major conflicts in the Mideast and Ukraine and confronting a challenge from China.

Trump has chosen John Ratcliffe, who was national intelligence director in his first term, to lead the CIA. Trump credited Ratcliffe, a Republican former House member from Texas, with "exposing fake Russian collusion to be a Clinton campaign operation."" [1]

It is interesting that the bribe-taker, the British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who accepted expensive gifts with his wife for corrupt purposes, promised to expel from the British Labor Party all those who blame NATO for causing the conflict in Ukraine, which led to so many victims in Eastern Europe. Bribery and lies always go together.

1. U.S. News: Gabbard Set to Oversee Agencies She Has Doubted. Strobel, Warren P.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 Nov 2024: A.4.

Iki šiol JAV taikomi, muitai Kinijos pramoninėms prekėms sumažino tik JAV gamybą. Dabar JAV galvoja apie dar didesnių muitų įvedimą Kinijos pramoninėms prekėms. Tai gali atnešti dar didesnį smūgį JAV gamybai. Pamatysime, kas čia dabar bus

 SINGAPŪRAS – Paskutinis dalykas, kurio Xi Jinpingui šiuo metu reikia, yra dar vienas susirėmimas su Donaldu Trumpu dėl prekybos.

 

 Kinija grumiasi su didžiuliu nekilnojamo turto žlugimu, o vietos valdžia svyruoja nuo trilijonų dolerių skolos. Kinijos lyderis Xi į tai sureagavo paspaudęs akseleratorių gamybai, skatindamas Kinijos įmones išsiurbti prekių perteklių, kuris plūsta į užsienio rinkas, ir skatina šalies ekonomiką.

 

 Dabar naujas prekybos karas gali ištraukti šį kilimėlį, kuris tapo svarbiu augimo šaltiniu.  Ženklas, kad jis rimtai žiūri į muitų didinimą, kad kovotų su tuo, ką jis laiko nesąžininga prekyba, išrinktasis prezidentas Trumpas pasakė sąjungininkams, kad nori Roberto Lighthizerio, kuris per pirmąją kadenciją ėjo JAV prekybos atstovo pareigas ir ypač kritiškai vertina Kinijos prekybos praktiką, tapti jo administracijos prekybos caru, pranešė „The Wall Street Journal“.

 

 Jei JAV sumažins kai kurias iš 430 mlrd. dolerių vertės prekių, kurias kasmet importuoja iš Kinijos, Kinijos įmonės galėtų pabandyti jas siųsti į kitas šalis. Šios strategijos Pekinas sėkmingai laikėsi po to, kai 2018 m. Trumpas pirmą kartą įvedė muitus Kinijos prekėms. Tačiau kitos šalys kovojo dėl pigaus Kinijos eksporto lavinos, kenkiančios jų pačių įmonėms.

 

 Didėjantys muitų tarifai ir sparčiai augantys antidempingo tyrimai Europoje, Azijoje ir Lotynų Amerikoje siunčia stiprų signalą, kad Kinija negali pasikliauti kitomis šalimis, kurios sumažins savo sparčiai augančią pramonės produkciją, nesvarbu, kad papildomos prekės bus uždarytos iš JAV, taikant naujus importo mokesčius. .

 

 Kai kurie ekonomistai mano, kad D. Trumpo politika ir tamsėjantis pasaulinis prekybos fonas gali pastūmėti Xi link to, kam jis jau seniai priešinosi: Kinijos ekonomikoje daug svarbesnio namų ūkių vartojimo vaidmens, skatinančio ekonomikos augimą.

 

 Trumpas, respublikonas, kampanijos metu pažadėjo padidinti tarifus visam Kinijos importui iki 60%. Tai reikštų didelę prekybos karo, kuris prasidėjo per pirmąją jo kadenciją ir tęsiasi nuo tada, eskalaciją.

 

 Trumpo muitai, apkraunantys 2018-aisiais skalbimo mašinas, saulės baterijas, plieną ir aliuminį pasiekė net 25 proc. Kinija atsako įvedama muitus JAV importui. Tada, valdant prezidentui Bidenui, JAV buvo padidinti tarifai Kinijos elektrinėms transporto priemonėms, švarios energijos įrangai ir puslaidininkiams.

 

 Kinija šį pirmąjį konflikto etapą valdė gerai. Ji sugebėjo nukreipti jos eksportą į kitas rinkas, pavyzdžiui, Rusiją ir kaimynines Pietryčių Azijos šalis. Ji taip pat užėmė pirmaujančią pasaulinę poziciją vertingose ​​naujose pramonės šakose, įskaitant elektromobilius.

 

 Dėl to Kinijos dalis pasaulinėje gamyboje ir pasaulio prekių eksporte padidėjo nuo 2018 m., nors jos dalis JAV importe sumažėjo.

 

 Ekonomistai teigė, kad kitas prekybos karo etapas gali būti daug sunkesnis, jei jis vyks taip, kaip Trumpas laikėsi per savo kampaniją.

 

 60 % muito tarifas Kinijos importui sumažintų prekybą su JAV net 70 %, Oxford Economics duomenimis, o Kinijos importo iš JAV dalis sumažėtų iki 4 % nuo maždaug 14 % 2023 m.

 

 UBS apskaičiavo, kad 60% tarifai sumažintų Kinijos ekonomikos augimą maždaug 1,5 procentinio punkto per metus po jų priėmimo.

 

 „Poveikis prekybai, greičiausiai, būtų daug didesnis, nei prekybos karas 1.0“, – sakė Duke universiteto ekonomikos profesorius Daniel Yi Xu.

 

 Daugelis ekonomistų teigė abejojantys, ar Trumpui pavyks įvesti visus 60 proc. Daugelis JAV kompanijų prieštarauja tokiems dideliems mokesčiams, o D. Trumpas gali nusileisti, ypač jei grasinimai dėl didesnių muitų užtikrins Kinijos nuolaidas.

 

 Vis dėlto Xu ir kiti ekonomistai mano, kad tikimybė yra palanki reikšmingam tarifų padidinimui. JAV politikos formuotojai abiejose koridoriaus pusėse atrodo labiau vieningi dėl griežtos pozicijos Kinijai.

 

 Nors Kinija, tikriausiai, galėtų kompensuoti prarastą JAV eksportą. siųsdama prekes į kitas paskirties vietas, prekybos kliūtys Kinijos importui auga visame pasaulyje, nes didžiosios ekonomikos siekia apsaugoti vidaus pramonę nuo pigios Kinijos konkurencijos.

 

 „Jei kitos šalys taip pat reaguos įkeldamos prekybos kliūtis, tada Kinijai situacija taps daug sudėtingesnė“, – sakė Julianas Evansas-Pritchardas, konsultacinės įmonės „Capital Economics“ Kinijos ekonomikos vadovas.

 

 Pekinas turi daugybę įrankių, kuriuos gali panaudoti, kad sumažintų didesnių tarifų poveikį. Politikos formuotojai galėtų sumažinti palūkanų normas, susilpninti Kinijos valiutą, kad paremtų pardavimus užsienyje, ir išplėsti mokesčių grąžinimus bei kitas lengvatas eksportuotojams.

 

 Jie galėtų pabandyti priversti JAV persvarstyti atsakomąsias priemones, galbūt, padidindami tarifus JAV produktams arba sulaikydami svarbias mineralines iškasenas.

 

 Kinija imasi veiksmų, kad aplenktų padidintus muitus, apipildama JAV sąjungininkus privilegijomis, tarp kurių bevizis režimas, Kinijos importo mokesčių mažinimas ir kitos paskatos, skatinančios prekybą ir draugiškesnius santykius, pranešė šis žurnalas.

 

 Tačiau platus prekybos konfliktas sukeltų problemų ekonomikai, kuri pastaraisiais metais labiau priklausė nuo eksporto ir gamybos, nes kitos ekonomikos dalys šlubuoja. Nudegę nekilnojamojo turto žlugimo ir užsitęsusių pandemijos metų traumų, Kinijos vartotojai tvirtai laiko uždarytas jų pinigines." [1]

 

 Dėl išvystytų mokslinių tyrimų, geros, visą pasaulį apimančios, infrastruktūros ir mąsto ekonomikos Kinija gamina elektromobilius, puslaidininkius, saulės ir vėjo energijos sistemas, akumuliatorius ir kitas ateities ekonomikos prekes kokybiškai ir gana pigiai. Kitos šalys nesugeba konkuruoti net su žymiai padidintais muitais. 

Vartotojai Vakaruose linksminasi taip, lyg rytojaus nebūtų. Žiūrėsim, kas bus toliau.

 

1. Facing a Trade War With U.S., China's Options Have Narrowed. Douglas, Jaso.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 Nov 2024: A.1.

So far U.S. tariffs on China's manufactured goods reduced only U.S. manufacturing. Now the U.S. is thinking about introducing even bigger tariffs on China's manufactured goods. That might bring an even bigger hit to U.S. manufacturing. We will see

  

SINGAPORE -- The last thing Xi Jinping needs right now is another showdown with Donald Trump over trade.

China is grappling with an epic property collapse, and local governments are wobbling under trillions of dollars of debt. China's leader Xi has responded by hitting the gas on manufacturing, pushing Chinese companies to pump out a surfeit of goods that is pouring into foreign markets and propping up the economy at home.

Now, a fresh trade war could pull the rug from under what has become a critical source of growth. In a sign of how serious he is about raising tariffs to combat what he sees as unfair trade, President-elect Trump has told allies he wants Robert Lighthizer, who served as U.S. Trade Representative during his first term and is especially critical of Chinese trade practices, to be his administration's trade czar, The Wall Street Journal reported.

If the U.S. cuts back on some of the $430 billion in goods it imports from China each year, Chinese companies could try sending them to other countries, a strategy Beijing followed successfully after Trump first hit Chinese goods with tariffs in 2018. But other countries are up in arms over an avalanche of cheap Chinese exports hurting their own companies.

Rising tariffs and mushrooming antidumping probes in Europe, Asia and Latin America are sending a strong signal that China can't rely on other countries to mop up its ballooning industrial output, never mind extra goods shut out of the U.S. by towering new levies on imports.

Some economists believe that Trump's policies and a darkening global backdrop for trade might nudge Xi toward something he has long resisted: embracing a much bigger role in China's economy for household consumption to propel economic growth.

Trump, a Republican, pledged on the campaign trail to raise tariffs on all Chinese imports to 60%. That would mark a big escalation of a trade war that began during his first term and has been simmering since.

Trump in 2018 hit Chinese-made washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminum with tariffs of up to 25%. China retaliated with tariffs of its own on U.S. imports. Then under President Biden, U.S. tariffs were raised on Chinese electric vehicles, clean-energy equipment and semiconductors.

China has managed this first phase of the conflict well. It has been able to redirect its exports to other markets, such as Russia and neighboring countries in Southeast Asia. It has also staked out a commanding global position in valuable new industries, including EVs.

The result is that China's shares in global manufacturing and global goods exports have increased since 2018, even as its share of U.S. imports has declined.

Economists said the next phase of the trade war could be much tougher if it plays out along the lines Trump floated during his campaign.

A 60% tariff on Chinese imports would reduce trade with the U.S. by as much as 70%, according to Oxford Economics, cutting China's share of U.S. imports to as little as 4%, from around 14% in 2023.

UBS estimates tariffs of 60% would reduce economic growth in China by around 1.5 percentage points in the year after they are enacted.

"The impact on trade would likely be much larger than the trade war 1.0," said Daniel Yi Xu, an economics professor at Duke University.

Many economists said they doubt Trump will succeed in imposing the full 60%. Many U.S. companies oppose such high levies and Trump could back down, especially if threats of higher tariffs secure concessions from China.

Still, Duke's Xu and other economists believe the odds favor some significant increase in tariffs. U.S. policymakers on both sides of the aisle appear more united around a tough-on-China posture.

Although China could probably offset some lost U.S. exports by shipping goods to other destinations, trade barriers to Chinese imports have been rising across the world, as big economies seek to shield domestic industries from cheap Chinese competition.

"If other countries respond by also putting up trade barriers, that's when it starts to become a lot more challenging for China," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, a consulting firm.

Beijing does have an array of tools it can deploy to lessen the hit from higher tariffs. Policymakers could cut interest rates, weaken China's currency to support sales overseas, and extend tax rebates and other perks to exporters.

They could try to force the U.S. to reconsider by retaliating, perhaps by raising tariffs on U.S. products, or by withholding critical minerals.

China is taking steps to get ahead of increased tariffs by showering U.S. allies with visa exemptions, cuts to Chinese import levies and other incentives to encourage trade and friendlier relations, the Journal reported.

But a broad trade conflict would spell trouble for an economy that in recent years has grown more reliant on exports and manufacturing, as other parts of the economy falter. Burned by the property meltdown and lingering trauma from the pandemic years, Chinese consumers are keeping a tight grip on their wallets." [1]

Consumers in the West are partying like there is no tomorrow. We will see what will happen next.

1. Facing a Trade War With U.S., China's Options Have Narrowed. Douglas, Jaso.  Wall Street Journal, Eastern edition; New York, N.Y.. 15 Nov 2024: A.1.